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Predictions graded

Pirin Blagoevgrad1Fratria Varna2

HT 1–2Sun 20 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–562%

Edges5–183%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 05:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Fratria Varna are strong favourites (78%) and the away win at 1.36 offers a slim +4-point edge, but the real value is in goals: Over 2.5 at 1.78 (+6pts) and especially first-half Over 1.5 at 2.40 (+13pts), driven by Pirin's 30 goals conceded in nine winless games.

Avoid the Pirin home win at 7.50 and treat the double chance at 1.10 as fairly priced, not value.

Context

Pirin Blagoevgrad are bottom of the 18-team Second League with 0 points from nine matches, having conceded 30 goals and scored 3. They have lost all four home league games, shipping 12 goals at home.
The scale of the defensive problem is the central fact of Pirin's season: 30 goals conceded in nine games, including 12 in four home matches. Their average of 2.7 goals conceded per game means they have rarely been in a position to control a match. Against a Fratria side that has scored in seven of nine league games, Pirin's main task is limiting the damage rather than dictating play.
- Pirin have 0 points from 9 league games, with 3 goals scored and 30 conceded.
- They have lost all four home league matches, conceding 12 goals.
- Their most recent match was a 3-0 away defeat to Marek on 13 September 2026.
Fratria Varna are third in the Second League with 16 points from nine matches, four wins, four draws and one defeat. They are unbeaten away from home with one win and three draws.
Fratria's away form is built on solidity rather than dominance: six goals scored and four conceded in four away games, with three draws. They have drawn five of their last six league matches, including 1-1 at Ludogorets II on 15 September 2026. That pattern suggests they are difficult to beat but not always able to turn control into wins, which matters against a Pirin side that has conceded early goals regularly.
- Fratria are 3rd with 16 points from 9 games (W4 D4 L1).
- Their away record is W1 D3 L0, scoring 6 and conceding 4.
- They have drawn five of their last six league matches, including 1-1 at Ludogorets II on 15 September 2026.
Pirin's season averages show they have trailed at half-time in 53% of matches and led in only 7%. They concede 1.3 goals before half-time on average, while scoring 0.3.
The first-half numbers point to a recurring problem: Pirin concede early and rarely recover. In their last home match, against Ludogorets II on 7 September 2026, they were 2-0 down at half-time and lost 3-0. Fratria, by contrast, have scored first-half goals in five of nine league games and have a 36% leading-at-half-time rate. If Fratria score first, Pirin's already poor goal difference and low scoring rate leave little room to respond.
- Pirin have trailed at half-time in 53% of matches and led in 7%.
- They concede 1.3 first-half goals per game on average.
- Fratria score 0.7 first-half goals per game and have led at half-time in 36% of matches.
The last four meetings between these clubs include a 3-0 Fratria home win in May 2026 and two 0-0 draws at Pirin's ground in November 2025 and February 2025.
The 3-0 result in May is the only decisive meeting in the last four and shows Fratria can break Pirin down when the game opens up. The two 0-0 draws at Pirin's ground, however, suggest that when Pirin host, the match has often been tight and low-scoring. That contrast is the useful part of the head-to-head record: it does not point to a repeat of either pattern, but it shows both a route to a comfortable Fratria win and a recent history of stalemate at this venue.
- Fratria beat Pirin 3-0 at home on 23 May 2026, leading 3-0 at half-time.
- The last two meetings at Pirin's ground ended 0-0 (21 November 2025 and 15 February 2025).
- Pirin's last win in the fixture was a 1-0 away victory on 3 August 2024.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fratria's unbeaten away record and top-three form face a Pirin side with zero points and a -27 goal difference, so the structural home/away edge and motivation/stakes gap both point to an away win.
- Pirin Blagoevgrad: 0 wins, 0 draws, 9 losses in 9 Second League matches, 3 goals scored and 30 conceded (goal difference -27).
- Pirin home record: 0-0-4 with 2 goals scored and 12 conceded in 4 home league matches.
- Fratria Varna: 4 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss in 9 matches, 12 scored and 7 conceded, ranked 3rd with 16 points.
- Fratria away record: 1 win, 3 draws, 0 losses in 4 away matches, 6 scored and 4 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFratria VarnaEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fratria's away resilience and Pirin's inability to score or avoid defeat make the draw-or-away double chance the safest match-result angle.
- Pirin Blagoevgrad have lost all 9 league matches and sit 18th with 0 points.
- Fratria Varna are unbeaten in 4 away league matches (1 win, 3 draws).
- Fratria have drawn 4 of 9 league matches, including 1-1 and 2-2 results in recent away fixtures.
- Pirin have scored only 3 goals in 9 league matches, limiting their chance of winning.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Fratria VarnaEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pirin's heavy defensive leakage and Fratria's recent 3-0 H2H win support a two-goal away margin, though Fratria's draw-heavy profile keeps confidence moderate.
- Pirin have conceded 30 goals in 9 league matches, an average of 3.33 per game.
- Pirin home matches have produced 12 conceded goals in 4 games, an average of 3.0.
- Fratria have scored 12 goals in 9 league matches and 6 in 4 away matches.
- The most recent H2H on 2026-05-23 ended Fratria 3-0 Pirin Blagoevgrad.
BetBugs · Asian HandicaplostFratria Varna -1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Pirin's poor first-half record and Fratria's early leads in recent matches favour an away half-time lead, but Fratria's many half-time draws keep confidence moderate.
- Pirin have trailed at half-time in 53% of recent matches.
- Pirin have conceded 1.3 first-half goals per game on average.
- Fratria have led at half-time in 36% of recent matches.
- Fratria led 2-0 at half-time in the most recent H2H.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonFratria VarnaEstimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pirin's very low first-half scoring and frequent half-time deficits make a half-time Pirin lead unlikely, supporting draw-or-away at the break.
- Pirin have trailed at half-time in 53% of recent matches and led in only 7%.
- Fratria have led at half-time in 36% of recent matches and trailed in 29%.
- Pirin have scored only 0.3 first-half goals per game on average.
- Fratria have conceded only 0.4 first-half goals per game on average.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Fratria VarnaEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fratria's ability to lead at half-time and Pirin's inability to recover from deficits make an away/away HT-FT result plausible, though Fratria's draw-heavy profile limits confidence.
- Fratria have led at half-time in 36% of recent matches and gone on to win several of those.
- Pirin have trailed at half-time in 53% of recent matches and lost all 9 league games.
- Fratria won the most recent H2H 3-0 after leading 2-0 at half-time.
- Pirin have lost all 4 home league matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonFratria Varna / Fratria VarnaEstimated chance42%

Goals3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pirin's extreme concession rate drives the over, but Fratria's low-scoring draw pattern caps the probability at medium.
- Pirin's 9 league matches have produced 33 total goals (3 scored, 30 conceded), an average of 3.67 per game.
- Pirin home matches average 3.5 total goals (2 scored, 12 conceded in 4 games).
- Fratria's 9 league matches average 2.11 total goals (12 scored, 7 conceded).
- The last H2H on 2026-05-23 produced 3 goals (Fratria 3-0 Pirin).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pirin's severe scoring drought and Fratria's solid defensive record make a clean sheet for the away side the more likely BTTS outcome.
- Pirin have scored only 3 goals in 9 league matches and 2 in 4 home matches.
- Pirin have failed to score in 7 of their last 9 league matches.
- Fratria have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 9 league matches.
- Fratria won the most recent H2H 3-0 without conceding.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pirin's inability to score at home combined with Fratria's away defensive record supports an away clean sheet.
- Pirin have scored 3 goals in 9 league matches, failing to score in 7 of those games.
- Pirin have scored only 2 goals in 4 home league matches.
- Fratria have conceded 7 goals in 9 league matches and 4 in 4 away matches.
- Fratria kept a clean sheet in the 3-0 H2H win on 2026-05-23.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostPirin Blagoevgrad not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pirin's frequent first-half deficits and Fratria's early scoring pattern point to first-half goals, though Fratria's draw-heavy starts temper confidence.
- Pirin have conceded 1.3 first-half goals per game on average across recent matches.
- Pirin have trailed at half-time in 53% of recent matches.
- Fratria have scored 0.7 first-half goals per game on average.
- Fratria led 2-0 at half-time in the 3-0 H2H win over Pirin.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pirin's heavy overall concession rate and Fratria's scoring output make second-half goals likely, though Fratria's low-scoring draws reduce certainty.
- Pirin have conceded 30 goals in 9 league matches, with many coming after half-time.
- Pirin's matches average 3.67 total goals, implying second-half scoring.
- Fratria have scored 12 goals in 9 league matches, with a portion in second halves.
- The 2026-05-23 H2H produced 3 goals, with 1 after half-time.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Pirin's scoring drought and Fratria's solid defence make an away win to nil a reasonable secondary angle.
- Pirin have scored 3 goals in 9 league matches and failed to score in 7.
- Fratria have conceded 7 goals in 9 league matches and 4 in 4 away matches.
- Fratria kept a clean sheet in the 3-0 H2H win on 2026-05-23.
- Pirin have scored only 2 goals in 4 home league matches.
BetBugs · Away Win to NillostYesEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fratria's away scoring rate and Pirin's heavy concession rate make over 1.5 away goals likely, though Fratria's draw-heavy away profile adds uncertainty.
- Fratria have scored 12 goals in 9 league matches, an average of 1.33 per game.
- Fratria have scored 6 goals in 4 away league matches, an average of 1.5.
- Pirin have conceded 30 goals in 9 league matches, an average of 3.33.
- Fratria scored 3 in the most recent H2H against Pirin.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonFratria Varna over 1.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 13% vs our 5% estimate; a winless, -27 goal-difference side offers no cushion even at 7.50.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 1W

L3-0FratriavPirin BlagoevgradMay 23, 2026SEC

D0-0Pirin BlagoevgradvFratriaNov 21, 2025SEC

D0-0Pirin BlagoevgradvFratriaFeb 15, 2025SEC

W0-1FratriavPirin BlagoevgradAug 3, 2024SEC

Pirin Blagoevgrad: 3 clean sheetsFratria Varna: 3 clean sheets1 goals/game avg

League Table

Second League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad Relegation	9	0	0	9	3-30	0	LLLLL
3	Fratria Varna Promotion - efbet League (Promotion)	9	4	4	1	12-7	16	DDDWD

16pt gap between teamsPirin Blagoevgrad in relegation zone

Recent Form