MTK Budapest1Gyor2

HT 0–0Sun 20 Sept 2026, 12:45 Predictions graded

Predictions12–192%

Edges4–0100%

PossPossession 57%–43%ShotsShots 21–21On targetOn target 6–8CornersCorners 8–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Sep 2026, 23:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Gyor's unbeaten league form and H2H record make Draw or Gyor at 1.62 the standout value, with an implied 62% against our 72% estimate.

The goals markets point to an open game — Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes are the likely outcomes — but both are priced at 1.38 with no real edge, so treat them as reads rather than bets. Gyor's 0W 3D 0L away record and the unresolved S. Schön injury report argue against backing the outright away win at 2.63.

Context

Gyor lead NB I on 12 points from seven games, with a home record of three wins and one loss but an away record of three draws from three. MTK Budapest are sixth on 9 points, having won two and lost two of four home matches.
Gyor's away matches have produced four goals for and four against, so they have neither dominated nor been overrun on the road. MTK's home games have been more decisive, with eight scored and six conceded across four matches and no draws. That contrast suggests Gyor may again be hard to beat without necessarily winning, while MTK's home results point to a game that is more likely to be settled than drawn.
- Gyor's away record in NB I this season is 0 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses, with 4 goals scored and 4 conceded.
- MTK Budapest's home record is 2 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, with 8 goals scored and 6 conceded.
- Gyor sit first on 12 points; MTK are sixth on 9 points after seven matches each.
MTK Budapest average 16.2 total shots and 7.4 on target per match in NB I, while Gyor average 11.0 shots and 3.7 on target. MTK concede 1.9 goals per game on average; Gyor concede 1.3.
MTK's higher shot and shot-on-target averages indicate they generate more attempts than Gyor, but their concession average of 1.9 shows those attempts have not translated into defensive control. Gyor's lower shot volume and lower goals-conceded average point to a team that creates less but gives up fewer clear chances. The practical question is whether MTK's extra shot volume can produce enough goals against a Gyor side that has conceded less often.
- MTK average 16.2 shots and 7.4 shots on target per match; Gyor average 11.0 shots and 3.7 on target.
- MTK concede an average of 1.9 goals per game; Gyor concede 1.3.
- MTK average 1.9 goals scored per game; Gyor average 2.1.
The last five NB I meetings between these clubs include Gyor wins of 7-2 and 3-0, a 2-2 draw, a 2-1 Gyor win, and a 0-0 draw in March 2026.
The 7-2 and 3-0 results show Gyor have scored heavily against MTK in this fixture, but the most recent meeting in March 2026 ended 0-0. With only five matches and mixed scorelines, the head-to-head record is more useful as a warning that this fixture can swing either way than as a reliable guide to how this specific game will unfold.
- Gyor beat MTK 7-2 at MTK on 17 August 2025 in NB I.
- Gyor beat MTK 3-0 at home on 29 November 2025 in NB I.
- The most recent meeting, on 13 March 2026, ended 0-0.
With no injuries listed for either club, the main selection questions are likely to be tactical or form-based rather than forced by absences. This does not guarantee unchanged lineups, but it means the supplied team news does not point to any player being unavailable through injury.
- MTK Budapest's injury list is empty in the supplied data.
- Gyor's injury list is empty in the supplied data.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.38fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Both sides carry ~3.4-3.8 combined goal expectation and MTK's leaky defense (1.9 conceded) meets Gyor's strong attack (2.1 scored), but the price already bakes in the over.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.38fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams score and concede consistently, and H2H shows mutual scoring in three of five, but the 1.38 price leaves essentially no margin.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Gyor to score

1.18fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

MTK conceded in all of their last 5 and Gyor score 2.1/game, but the 1.18 price already fully prices the no-clean-sheet outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gyor's league-leading position and superior goal difference give them the edge, though their inability to win away (3 draws) and MTK's home wins keep this at medium confidence.
- Gyor sit 1st in NB I with 12 points from 7, MTK 6th with 9 points
- Gyor away record: 0W 3D 0L — unbeaten on the road but no wins
- MTK home record: 2W 0D 2L — inconsistent at home
- H2H last 5: Gyor won 2, MTK won 1, 2 draws
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGyorEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gyor's unbeaten away record and strong overall form combined with H2H dominance make a draw-or-away result the safest match-result play.
- Gyor unbeaten away this season: 3 draws from 3 away games
- Gyor overall form WLDWD with only 1 loss in 7 league matches
- MTK home form inconsistent: 2W 2L in 4 home games
- H2H last 5: Gyor avoided defeat in 4 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or GyorEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently reach half-time level, with MTK drawing at the break in three of their last five, making a level first half the most likely single outcome.
- MTK half-time result in last 5: D, W, D, D, L — three draws
- Gyor half-time result in last 5: D, L, D, W, W — mixed
- MTK leading at HT 33%, trailing 20%; Gyor leading 47%, trailing 20%
- H2H 2026-03-13 ended 0-0 at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gyor's tendency to lead at the break and superior squad quality make a half-time-lead-to-full-win path plausible, though their away draws cap confidence.
- Gyor lead at half-time in 47% of matches and are strong front-runners
- Gyor unbeaten away with 3 draws from 3
- MTK trail at half-time in only 20% of matches
- H2H shows Gyor capable of big wins (7-2, 3-0)
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw or Gyor / GyorEstimated chance22%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams carry high combined goal averages and a volatile H2H history, with MTK's leaky defense (1.9 conceded) meeting Gyor's strong attack (2.1 scored) supporting an open game.
- MTK Budapest average 1.9 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per match across last 15, with 3.8 combined goal expectation
- Gyor average 2.1 scored and 1.3 conceded, giving 3.4 combined per match
- Last 5 H2H meetings produced 0-0, 3-0, 7-2, 2-1, 2-2 — three of five went over 2.5
- MTK's last 5 league matches: 1-2, 2-2, 2-1, 1-1, 2-3 — four of five had 3+ goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have consistent scoring and conceding patterns across recent matches, and H2H shows frequent mutual scoring, making BTTS the strongest goals-family signal.
- MTK scored in 4 of last 5 league matches and conceded in all 5
- Gyor scored in 5 of last 6 competitive matches and conceded in 4 of those
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 of 5 meetings
- MTK home record: 8 goals for, 6 against in 4 home games — both teams scoring in most
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show meaningful first-half scoring rates and Gyor frequently leads at the break, supporting at least one first-half goal.
- MTK average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded
- Gyor average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded
- Gyor led at half-time in 47% of matches; MTK in 33%
- H2H 2025-08-17: 7-2 with early goals; 2026-03-13: 0-0
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
High combined goal averages and MTK's defensive fragility suggest second-half goals are likely as games open up.
- MTK concede 1.9 goals per match with many coming after the break in recent games
- Gyor average 2.1 goals per match with strong second-half output
- MTK's last 5 league games averaged 3.4 total goals
- Both teams' matches frequently see late goals given defensive lapses
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
MTK's consistent defensive lapses and Gyor's strong scoring rate make an MTK clean sheet unlikely.
- MTK conceded in all of their last 5 league matches
- MTK average 1.9 goals conceded per match
- Gyor scored in 5 of last 6 competitive matches
- Gyor average 2.1 goals per match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGyor to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
MTK's reliable scoring output and Gyor's recent concession pattern make a Gyor clean sheet unlikely, though their 0-0 H2H draw shows it is possible.
- Gyor conceded in 4 of last 6 competitive matches
- MTK scored in 4 of last 5 league matches
- MTK average 1.9 goals scored per match
- H2H 2026-03-13 was 0-0, showing Gyor can keep clean sheets
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMTK Budapest to scoreEstimated chance65%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches feature high opponent corner counts, and MTK's open home style tends to generate corner volume, though data is partial.
- MTK average 4.2 corners per match; opponents average higher given their open style
- Gyor average 3.1 corners but concede many (opponents averaged 8+ in several games)
- MTK's recent matches saw 6, 3, 8, 3 corners for them with opponents getting 1, 15, 4, 4
- Gyor's recent games show opponent corners of 6, 9, 8, 7, 13
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gyor's high card rate combined with a competitive H2H history of physical matches supports a moderate card total.
- Gyor average 2.5 yellow cards per match — among the higher rates in the league
- MTK average 1.6 yellow cards per match
- Gyor's recent games show 4, 3, 2, 2, 6 yellow cards
- MTK's recent games show 1, 3, 2, 2, 0 yellow cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
MTK's high shot-on-target volume and Gyor's tendency to allow shots suggest a combined total above the line, though Gyor's own low output tempers confidence.
- MTK average 7.4 shots on target per match
- Gyor average 3.7 shots on target but face high-volume opponents
- MTK's recent games: 10, 7, 9, 5, 6 shots on target
- Gyor's recent games: 5, 3, 2, 6, 1 shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance58%