Willem II0Fortuna Sittard1

HT 0–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 15–17On targetOn target 3–3CornersCorners 5–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 18:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Fortuna Sittard are the likely winners given their superior form and away record, but the best value lies in backing Draw or Fortuna Sittard at 1.53 (model edge +13 points).

The second-half over 1.5 goals at 2.10 also offers value, while the match winner market on Fortuna is best avoided.

Context

Willem II are 17th in the Eredivisie with 2 points from 6 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 19.
Their recent form is LDLDL, including a 1-5 loss at Ajax on 15 September and a 0-3 home loss to Excelsior on 5 September. They have conceded 9 goals in 3 home matches, so Fortuna Sittard may find space to attack. However, Willem II did draw 2-2 with Heerenveen at home on 30 August, showing they can compete at times.
- Willem II are 17th with 2 points from 6 matches (0W, 2D, 4L).
- They lost 1-5 at Ajax on 15 September and 0-3 at home to Excelsior on 5 September.
- They have conceded 9 goals in 3 home matches.
Fortuna Sittard are 7th in the Eredivisie with 10 points from 6 matches.
Their away record is 2W, 1D, 0L, with wins at ADO Den Haag (3-2 on 6 September) and Groningen (3-2 on 28 August), and a 2-2 draw at PSV Eindhoven on 8 August. They have scored 8 goals in 3 away matches, so they can threaten Willem II's defence. However, they also conceded 6 goals in those away games, so Willem II may get chances.
- Fortuna Sittard are unbeaten away: 2 wins and 1 draw in 3 away matches.
- They won 3-2 at ADO Den Haag on 6 September and 3-2 at Groningen on 28 August.
- They drew 2-2 at PSV Eindhoven on 8 August.
Willem II average 37.3% possession per match.
In their last match at Ajax, they had only 30% possession and lost 1-5. Against AZ Alkmaar on 11 September, they had 33% possession and drew 1-1. Fortuna Sittard also average 37.3% possession, so this could be a match with limited control from both sides. Willem II's low possession means they may struggle to create sustained pressure.
- Willem II average 37.3% possession per match.
- They had 30% possession in the 1-5 loss at Ajax on 15 September.
- They had 33% possession in the 1-1 draw at AZ Alkmaar on 11 September.
Willem II defender Justin Hoogma, who started 2 of the last 5 available lineups, is sidelined with a serious knee injury.
His absence removes a defensive option and can affect defensive organisation. M. Dekker started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent fixtures when Hoogma did not start, so a replacement is available, but the change may disrupt continuity.
- Ajax Life reported on 14 September that Hoogma had joined Willem II's injury list with a serious knee injury.
- Hoogma was not named in Willem II's match squad for the Ajax fixture on 15 September.
- J. Hoogma started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- M. Dekker started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when J. Hoogma did not start.
ReportedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 18:08 · Europe/BucharestAjax Life: Willem II injury update before Ajax matchwww.ajaxlife.nl · 14 Sep 2026Voetbal International: Ajax vs Willem II match recordwww.vi.nl · 15 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.48fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games, with Willem II's leaky defense and Fortuna's attacking output pointing to goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fortuna Sittard's superior form and away record, combined with Willem II's relegation struggles, make an away win the most likely outcome.
- Willem II are 17th with 2 points from 6 matches, winless in their last 5 league games (LDLDL).
- Fortuna Sittard are 7th with 10 points and have won 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Fortuna Sittard are unbeaten away this season (2W 1D), while Willem II have lost 2 of 3 home games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFortuna SittardEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Willem II's poor form and home struggles make it unlikely they will win, so backing Fortuna Sittard or draw is a strong play.
- Willem II have not won any of their last 5 league matches (0W 2D 3L).
- Fortuna Sittard have avoided defeat in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Fortuna Sittard are unbeaten away this season, while Willem II have only 1 draw at home.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Fortuna SittardEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Fortuna win is plausible given Willem II's tendency to start slowly and Fortuna's stronger second-half performances.
- Willem II have drawn at half-time in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Fortuna Sittard have won the second half in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Fortuna Sittard have led at half-time in 53% of matches, but Willem II often start slowly.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/Fortuna SittardEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games, with Willem II's leaky defense and Fortuna's attacking output pointing to goals.
- Willem II's league matches average 4.2 total goals (6 scored, 19 conceded in 6 games).
- Fortuna Sittard's league matches average 4.3 total goals (12 scored, 14 conceded in 6 games).
- Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown they can score, and Willem II's defensive vulnerabilities suggest Fortuna will find the net.
- Willem II have scored in 5 of their last 6 league matches.
- Fortuna Sittard have scored in 5 of their last 6 league matches.
- Fortuna Sittard have conceded in 5 of their last 6 league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fortuna's strong first-half scoring record could lead to early goals, but Willem II's low first-half output makes this a risky bet.
- Willem II average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match.
- Fortuna Sittard average 1.0 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded per match.
- Fortuna Sittard have led at half-time in 53% of their matches, while Willem II have trailed in 40%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Willem II's defense tends to weaken as games progress, and Fortuna's attacking threat should produce second-half goals.
- Willem II concede an average of 1.1 goals in the second half (total 1.8 conceded minus 0.7 first-half).
- Fortuna Sittard score an average of 0.6 goals in the second half (total 1.6 minus 1.0 first-half).
- Both teams have seen second-half goals in most recent matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede many corners, which could push the total over the line, but their own corner counts are low.
- Willem II average 3.8 corners per match and concede 7.2 opponent corners.
- Fortuna Sittard average 2.4 corners per match and concede 6.6 opponent corners.
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams is around 10.4.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams allow a high number of shots on target, suggesting the total could exceed 8.5, but their own shooting accuracy is moderate.
- Willem II average 2.7 shots on target per match and concede 6.0 opponent shots on target.
- Fortuna Sittard average 4.5 shots on target per match and concede 5.2 opponent shots on target.
- Combined average shots on target in matches involving these teams is around 9.2.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The match is likely to be competitive with both teams committing fouls, but card counts are not exceptionally high.
- Willem II average 1.3 yellow cards per match and their opponents average 1.2.
- Fortuna Sittard average 1.4 yellow cards per match and their opponents average 1.7.
- Combined average cards in matches involving these teams is around 3.6.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance45%