USL ChampionshipFull time

Predictions graded

Tampa Bay Rowdies4Birmingham Legion0

HT 2–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–564%

Edges6–275%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 03:47 · Europe/Bucharest

Tampa Bay are the clear on-pitch favourite — 62% match-winner, 82% double chance — but the 1.02 outright price offers no value, with a 36-point negative edge.

The actionable plays are Birmingham over 0.5 away goals at 1.95 (+28.7 points) and both teams to score at 1.95 (+8.7 points), while over 2.5 goals at 1.07 and Tampa Bay over 1.5 home goals at 1.25 are overpriced and best avoided.

Context

Birmingham Legion sit 10th in the USL Championship with 20 points from 23 games, a record built on 11 draws and only three wins. Their recent league run is DDDLL, and they have drawn five of their last six matches in all competitions.
The draw-heavy run means Birmingham have repeatedly reached the closing stages level rather than ahead, so their games tend to be decided by small margins. Against a Tampa Bay team with 14 wins and a plus-18 goal difference, Birmingham's habit of sharing points limits how often they convert solid spells into wins. The sample is recent and consistent, but it also shows they are not being beaten heavily, so the risk for Tampa Bay is a low-scoring game rather than an open one.
- Birmingham Legion's last five league results read DDDLL, with 11 draws from 23 matches overall.
- They drew 4-4 at home to New Mexico United on 17 September 2026 and 2-2 at home to Charleston Battery on 12 September 2026.
- Their away record is one win, four draws and five defeats from 10 league games.
This is the live state of the match between Tampa Bay and Birmingham, with the scoreline and interval changes recorded in Birmingham's official updates.
Tampa Bay led 2-0 at halftime, and Birmingham introduced Tyler Pasher, Hamady Diop and Gevork Diarbian at the start of the second half. The scoreline requires Birmingham to chase the game, and the three replacements change its second-half on-pitch configuration. Because the evidence covers only the interval state, it does not establish how the remaining second half unfolded.
- Birmingham’s official live update recorded a 2-0 halftime deficit.
- Birmingham confirmed Tyler Pasher, Hamady Diop and Gevork Diarbian entered at the start of the second half.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 03:46 · Europe/Bucharest
Tampa Bay Rowdies are first in the USL Championship with 48 points from 24 games, holding a 28-point gap over Birmingham Legion. Their home record is seven wins, two draws and two defeats, with 24 goals scored and 14 conceded.
The home numbers show Tampa Bay score freely but also give opponents chances, which is relevant because Birmingham have scored in each of their last six matches. Tampa Bay's overall defensive record of 23 goals conceded in 24 games is stronger than Birmingham's 38, so the edge sits with the leaders, but the home split suggests this is not a clean-sheet certainty. The evidence supports a game where Tampa Bay are favoured without controlling the scoreline completely.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies are ranked 1st with 48 points from 24 matches, 28 points clear of Birmingham Legion.
- Their home record is 7 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in 11 games, scoring 24 and conceding 14.
- Birmingham Legion have scored at least one goal in each of their last six matches.
Birmingham travelled to Tampa Bay after Wednesday's 4-4 draw with New Mexico United, in which Ronaldo Damus equalised in the 99th minute.
The extended midweek match and the away fixture three days later increase recovery and rotation pressure on Birmingham. That pressure is a plausible factor in how the visitors manage minutes, though the evidence does not specify which players are affected or how the coaching staff will respond.
- Birmingham’s September 18 preview described the 4-4 draw with New Mexico United on the preceding Wednesday.
- Ronaldo Damus scored Birmingham’s equaliser in the 99th minute.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 03:46 · Europe/BucharestBirmingham Legion FC: Legion heads to Tampa Bay to take on the Rowdieswww.bhmlegion.com · 18 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Tampa Bay Rowdies

1.02fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 98%

0.0ppshort

The market has fully priced the class gap and home form, so the 1.02 quote offers no value despite the strong directional thesis.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Tampa Bay Rowdies or Draw

1.00fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 100%

0.0ppshort

The 1.00 price is a placeholder with no margin, so even an 82% estimate cannot generate positive expected value.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Tampa Bay Rowdies

1.02fair 2.27

BetBugs 44% · Market 98%

0.0ppshort

The first-half market is priced as if a home lead is near-certain, but the predictor only assigns 44% to that outcome.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Tampa Bay Rowdies at half-time / Tampa Bay Rowdies at full-time

1.02fair 2.63

BetBugs 38% · Market 98%

0.0ppshort

The HT/FT home-home combination is priced at near-certainty while the model estimates only 38%, a massive negative edge.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.07fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 93.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average 0.8-0.9 first-half goals and Birmingham's recent first halves (1-2, 2-2, 1-1, 2-2, 0-0) have been open, but the 1.07 price already prices this at 93.5%, well above our 78% estimate.

Total Goals HomewonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 1.5

1.25fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 80%

−20.0ppshort

Tampa Bay average 1.7 goals and 2.18 at home, but the 1.25 price implies 80% while our estimate is only 60%, leaving no cushion for a host side that scored 1 or fewer in 6 of their last 15.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home edge plus a 28-point class gap and Birmingham's 1-win-in-10 away record make the league leaders the clear side, reinforced by H2H dominance.
- Tampa Bay lead the Eastern Conference with 48 points from 24 (14W-6D-4L), 28 points clear of 10th-placed Birmingham (20 pts).
- Rowdies home record 7W-2D-2L with 24 goals scored and 14 conceded in 11 home matches.
- Birmingham away record 1W-4D-5L, 16 scored and 20 conceded in 10 road games; form DDDLL.
- H2H last 5: Tampa Bay won 3, including 1-0 at Birmingham in March 2026 and 4-1 in Sept 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTampa Bay RowdiesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The draw is the only realistic non-win outcome given Birmingham's league-worst win rate and Tampa Bay's strong home unbeaten profile.
- Tampa Bay have lost only 4 of 24 league matches (14W-6D) and only 2 of 11 at home.
- Birmingham have won just 3 of 23 matches all season and 1 of 10 away.
- Rowdies home goals against 14 in 11 games; Birmingham away goals for 16 in 10.
- H2H last 5 produced 3 Tampa Bay wins, 1 draw, 1 Birmingham win.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonTampa Bay Rowdies or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tampa Bay's strong half-time leading rate (53%) against Birmingham's low 13% half-time leading rate gives the hosts the edge in the first-half market.
- Tampa Bay led at half-time in 53% of their last 15 matches.
- Birmingham trailed at half-time in only 20% of matches but led in just 13%.
- Rowdies average 0.8 first-half goals for vs Birmingham's 0.9 first-half goals conceded.
- H2H March 2026: Tampa Bay won 1-0 away at Birmingham.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonTampa Bay RowdiesEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Birmingham's late-goal pattern and second-half tactical changes give them a plausible edge after the break, though the overall class gap keeps confidence low.
- Birmingham scored their 99th-minute equaliser in the 4-4 draw with New Mexico United.
- Birmingham average 1.8 goals per game with a notable share after the break.
- Tampa Bay conceded 1.2 goals per game across last 15.
- Birmingham made a triple half-time change in their most recent match, showing second-half tactical flexibility.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostBirmingham LegionEstimated chance33%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Birmingham rarely lead at the interval (13%), so the hosts or a level first half is the dominant outcome.
- Tampa Bay led at half-time in 53% and drew at half-time in a further portion of their last 15.
- Birmingham led at half-time in only 13% of their last 15 matches.
- Birmingham trailed at half-time in 20% of matches.
- Rowdies' first-half goal difference is positive (0.8 for vs 0.7 against).
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonTampa Bay Rowdies or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The league leaders' habit of leading at the break combined with Birmingham's poor win rate makes a home/home double the most likely HT-FT combination.
- Tampa Bay led at half-time in 53% of last 15 matches and won 14 of 24 league games.
- Birmingham have lost 9 of 23 and won only 3 all season.
- Rowdies home record 7W-2D-2L with a +10 home goal difference.
- H2H: Tampa Bay won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonTampa Bay Rowdies / Tampa Bay RowdiesEstimated chance38%

Goals4 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Birmingham's leaky defence (1.8 conceded per game) and their run of high-scoring draws/losses point to a multi-goal game, though Tampa Bay's own 1.2 concession rate tempers the line.
- Tampa Bay average 1.7 goals scored and 1.2 conceded across last 15 matches.
- Birmingham average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded across last 15, with 4-4, 2-2, 2-2, 2-3, 2-3 in recent games.
- Birmingham's last 5 matches produced 8, 4, 4, 5 and 5 total goals.
- Rowdies' 5-4 win over Louisville City shows high-variance scoring games in their recent sample.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Birmingham's consistent scoring output combined with their porous defence makes a both-teams-scoring outcome likely, supported by their five straight matches with goals at both ends.
- Birmingham scored in 14 of their last 15 matches, averaging 1.8 goals.
- Birmingham conceded in 13 of their last 15, averaging 1.8 against.
- Tampa Bay scored in 11 of their last 15 and conceded in 10 of 15.
- Birmingham's recent scorelines: 4-4, 2-2, 2-2, 2-3, 2-3 — both teams scored in all five.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score regularly before the break (0.8 and 0.9 first-half goals per game), and Birmingham's recent first halves have been consistently open.
- Tampa Bay average 0.8 first-half goals for and 0.7 against across last 15.
- Birmingham average 0.9 first-half goals for and 0.9 against across last 15.
- Birmingham's last 5 first-half scorelines: 1-2, 2-2, 1-1, 2-2, 0-0.
- Tampa Bay led at half-time in 53% of matches and trailed in 33%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Birmingham's chasing game state and their pattern of late goals, plus Tampa Bay's high-scoring recent matches, support second-half goals.
- Tampa Bay's 5-4 win over Louisville City featured 3 first-half and 6 second-half goals.
- Birmingham's 4-4 draw with New Mexico saw a 99th-minute equaliser after a 4-1 deficit.
- Birmingham average 1.8 goals per game with a heavy share arriving late in matches.
- Rowdies' second-half game management with a lead can still concede given 1.2 goals against per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Birmingham's consistent scoring record makes a Tampa Bay clean sheet unlikely despite the hosts' defensive quality.
- Birmingham scored in 14 of their last 15 matches, averaging 1.8 goals.
- Birmingham's last five matches all featured goals for them (4, 2, 2, 2, 2).
- Tampa Bay conceded 1.2 goals per game across last 15.
- Rowdies kept clean sheets in only a minority of recent matches (2-0, 0-0, 2-0, 2-0, 2-0 in some games).
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostBirmingham Legion to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tampa Bay's home scoring rate of 2.18 goals per game against Birmingham's 2.0 away concession rate supports the hosts scoring at least twice.
- Tampa Bay average 1.7 goals scored per game across last 15.
- Rowdies scored 24 goals in 11 home matches (2.18 per game).
- Birmingham conceded 20 goals in 10 away matches (2.0 per game).
- Rowdies scored 2+ goals in 9 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonTampa Bay Rowdies over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Birmingham's away scoring rate of 1.6 goals per game and their consistent scoring streak make at least one away goal highly likely.
- Birmingham scored in 14 of their last 15 matches, averaging 1.8 goals.
- Birmingham scored 16 goals in 10 away matches (1.6 per game).
- Tampa Bay conceded 14 goals in 11 home matches (1.27 per game).
- Birmingham's last five matches all featured at least two goals for them.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostBirmingham Legion over 0.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Birmingham's near-constant scoring record, a Tampa Bay win without conceding is unlikely.
- Birmingham scored in 14 of their last 15 matches.
- Birmingham average 1.8 goals per game.
- Tampa Bay kept clean sheets in only a minority of recent matches.
- Birmingham scored 16 goals in 10 away games.
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance68%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 98% leaves no cushion versus our 62% estimate; the price already reflects the directional read and any variance is catastrophic.

Prediction history

Tampa Bay Rowdies have been moderately reliable when projected to win, with recent away strength

Tampa Bay Rowdies fulfilled 4 of 7 win projections, matching an expected 4.1 based on average estimated probability. Missed win projections included 1 draw and 2 losses, with missed matches carrying a higher average probability (61.7) than matched ones (56.8). Away projections were more reliable (3 of 4 fulfilled) than home projections (1 of 3), and the current 62% probability sits within the historical range of 45% to 72%.

Recent evidence for Tampa Bay Rowdies7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·USL Championship