Kisvarda0Paks1

HT 0–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges1–233%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 15–13On targetOn target 3–4CornersCorners 9–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 17:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Kisvárda vs Paks is likely to feature goals, but the market has already priced in the high-scoring trend, leaving no value on Over 2.5 or BTTS.

Kisvárda's poor home form and Paks' weak away record make the match outcome uncertain, so avoid the short-priced goal markets and consider alternative angles.

Context

Kisvarda sit seventh in the NB I table with nine points from seven matches, but their home form has been weaker than their away form.
At home they have scored four goals and conceded six in four games, with draws against Gyori ETO FC, Debreceni VSC, and Budapest Honved, and a loss to Ujpest. This pattern suggests they have struggled to turn home advantage into wins, though the sample is small and includes a 2-4 defeat to Ujpest on 2026-08-08.
- Kisvarda home record in NB I 2026: 0 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss in 4 matches.
- Home results: 1-1 vs Gyori ETO FC (2026-08-30), 0-0 vs Debreceni VSC (2026-08-23), 2-4 vs Ujpest (2026-08-08), 1-1 vs Budapest Honved (2026-07-25).
Kisvárda head coach Attila Supka rested several key players for the 12 September cup match at Nagykozár, using a completely new starting XI.
The regular league group avoided extra cup workload, so Kisvárda should enter this match without added fatigue from that fixture. This reduces the chance of forced rotation and supports a familiar league selection.
- Kisvárda said Supka had given several previously used key players a rest for the Nagykozár cup tie.
- The club described the cup selection as a completely new starting XI.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 17:16 · Europe/BucharestKisvárda FC: Tétmeccsújoncokat is avatunkkisvardafc.hu · 12 Sep 2026
Paks are ninth in the table with eight points, but their away form has been poor compared to their home form.
They have lost 2-3 at Puskas Academy on 2026-08-16, lost 2-5 at Zalaegerszegi TE on 2026-08-03, and drawn 1-1 at Nyiregyhaza on 2026-08-29. The high number of goals conceded away suggests defensive issues on the road, though the sample is only three matches.
- Paks away record in NB I 2026: 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in 3 matches.
- Away results: 2-3 at Puskas Academy (2026-08-16), 2-5 at Zalaegerszegi TE (2026-08-03), 1-1 at Nyiregyhaza (2026-08-29).
Paks named Simuț, Lenzsér, Belényesi, Debreceni and Silye in their starting XI for the 12 September cup win at Kazincbarcika.
That selection shows Paks have a five-defender option available. If repeated, it would change their width and defensive organisation against Kisvárda, though it is not certain they will use it again.
- Paks's official match report lists Simuț, Lenzsér, Belényesi, Debreceni and Silye in the starting XI against Kazincbarcika.
- Bognár said his side pushed Kazincbarcika back and created more chances in the second half.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 17:16 · Europe/BucharestPaksi FC: Kazincbarcika 1-2 Pakspaksifc.hu · 12 Sep 2026Paksi FC: Bognár assessment after the cup winwww.paksifc.hu · 12 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.40fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent goal averages and high-scoring H2H pattern support over 2.5 goals, but the odds offer no value.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.43fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams regularly score and Paks' defensive record makes a clean sheet unlikely, but the odds are too short.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

Draw or Paks

1.41fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 71%

0.0ppshort

Kisvarda's inability to win at home and balanced H2H support a double chance for Paks or draw.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Paks' superior attacking output and Kisvarda's poor home form give Paks a slight edge.
- Paks won 2 of last 5 H2H meetings, Kisvarda won 2, 1 draw.
- Paks away record this season: 0W 1D 2L, but Kisvarda home record: 0W 3D 1L.
- Paks average 2.2 goals per match vs Kisvarda's 1.8.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPaksEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kisvarda's inability to win at home and balanced H2H support a double chance for Paks or draw.
- Kisvarda home record: 0 wins in 4 matches.
- Paks away record: 1 draw and 2 losses, but Kisvarda's home struggles make a home win unlikely.
- H2H last 5: Kisvarda won 2, Paks won 2, 1 draw.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or PaksEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into the break level, making a first half draw the most likely outcome.
- Kisvarda leading at half time in 33% of matches, trailing in 33%.
- Paks leading at half time in 27%, trailing in 40%.
- Both teams have high draw rates at half time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Paks' slightly better second half scoring and Kisvarda's defensive lapses give Paks a narrow edge.
- Paks average 1.1 second half goals vs Kisvarda's 1.0.
- Paks have scored in second half in 10 of last 15 matches.
- Kisvarda have conceded in second half in 8 of last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonPaksEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Paks win is a plausible scenario given Kisvarda's slow starts and Paks' attacking strength.
- Kisvarda home matches often level at half time (3 of 4 home games drawn at HT).
- Paks have won 2 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Paks average more goals overall.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/PaksEstimated chance22%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent goal averages and high-scoring H2H pattern support over 2.5 goals.
- Kisvarda's last 15 matches average 2.9 total goals (1.8 for, 1.1 against).
- Paks' last 15 matches average 4.5 total goals (2.2 for, 2.3 against).
- H2H last 5 meetings: 3, 8, 6, 1, 3 goals; 4 of 5 had over 2.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly score and Paks' defensive record makes a clean sheet unlikely.
- Kisvarda scored in 11 of last 15 matches.
- Paks scored in 13 of last 15 matches.
- Paks conceded in 13 of last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first half scoring and conceding rates suggest a decent chance of multiple first half goals.
- Kisvarda first half goals average 0.8, conceded 0.6.
- Paks first half goals average 1.1, conceded 1.2.
- Combined first half average 1.9 goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second half scoring is likely given both teams' consistent attacking output after the break.
- Kisvarda average 1.0 second half goals (1.8 total - 0.8 first half).
- Paks average 1.1 second half goals (2.2 total - 1.1 first half).
- Paks concede 1.1 second half goals on average.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a healthy number of corners, making over 9.5 corners likely.
- Kisvarda average 5.1 corners per match, Paks average 6.0.
- Combined average corners 11.1.
- Recent H2H matches have seen high corner counts.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Paks' high shot volume and Kisvarda's moderate output suggest over 8.5 shots on target.
- Kisvarda average 3.7 shots on target per match.
- Paks average 6.1 shots on target per match.
- Combined average 9.8 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' disciplinary records indicate a moderate chance of over 3.5 cards.
- Kisvarda average 2.0 yellow cards per match.
- Paks average 1.9 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average 3.9 yellow cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance52%