Austria Lustenau2Altach0

HT 2–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–931%

Edges0–40%

PossPossession 48%–52%ShotsShots 12–13On targetOn target 2–2CornersCorners 3–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Sep 2026, 04:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Altach are priced as clear favourites at 2.20 despite losing all three away league games this season, making the match-winner and Draw-or-Altach lines negative-edge plays.

Both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals are plausible on the numbers but priced with no margin, so the disciplined approach is to avoid the short favourites rather than chase the derby narrative. Chukwu and Zech remain unresolved defensive doubts that could shift the picture late.

Context

Altach sit last in the Bundesliga relegation group on 3 points from six games, with one win, no draws and five defeats. Their three away league matches have produced no goals for and five against.
Altach have scored five league goals in total, all at home, so their away games have been a separate problem from their general form. The sample is only three matches, but it is the current season and it covers every away league fixture they have played. Austria Lustenau have conceded six goals in three home league games, so this is a chance for Altach to end that away scoring blank, though Lustenau's own home record includes a win and a draw.
- Altach away league record in 2026-27: 3 played, 0 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses, 0 goals for, 5 against.
- Altach's five league goals this season have all come in home matches.
- Austria Lustenau home league record: 3 played, 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, 3 goals for, 6 against.
Austria Lustenau are 11th on 5 points from six games, with one win, two draws and three defeats. Altach are 12th on 3 points, with one win and five defeats.
The two-point gap means Altach can draw level with Lustenau by winning, while Lustenau can move five points clear of the bottom if they win. Both records show negative goal differences of -5, so the table position is tight rather than comfortable. The standings context lists a relegation line at rank 7, which places both teams in the relegation group rather than in immediate danger of automatic relegation from the division.
- Austria Lustenau: rank 11, 5 points, 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses, 6 goals for, 11 against.
- Altach: rank 12, 3 points, 1 win, 0 draws, 5 losses, 5 goals for, 10 against.
- Both teams have a goal difference of -5 after six league games.
E. Chukwu started in Lustenau's most recent league match as a defender, but Altach's 16 September derby preview says he is unlikely to play after an injury-related substitution against Austria Vienna.
His availability is unresolved rather than a confirmed absence, so Lustenau may have to change their defensive selection and back line. The uncertainty is the key point: if Chukwu is cleared, the defensive shape can stay closer to the recent starting line-up.
- SCR Altach's 16 September derby preview states that E. Chukwu appears unlikely to play after an injury-related substitution in Lustenau's previous match.
- The official Bundesliga preview lists Emmanuel Chukwu as a defender in Lustenau's most recent league starting line-up.
To watchSources checked 17 Sep 2026, 04:36 · Europe/BucharestSCR Altach derby previewwww.scra.at · 16 Sep 2026Austrian Bundesliga match previewwww.bundesliga.at · 17 Sep 2026
Altach's 2026-27 Bundesliga form reads L-L-L-L-W, with the win coming at home against WSG Wattens on 7 August 2026.
The run includes a 3-1 home defeat to Grazer AK on 12 September 2026, a 3-0 loss at Lask Linz on 29 August 2026 and a 2-1 home defeat to TSV Hartberg on 22 August 2026. Those results show Altach conceding in each of their last three league games while scoring only twice. The sample is small, but it is the full current league season, and it points to a team that has struggled to take points outside one home match.
- Altach's last three league results: 1-2 home loss to Grazer AK on 12 September 2026, 0-3 away loss to Lask Linz on 29 August 2026, 1-2 home loss to TSV Hartberg on 22 August 2026.
- Altach's only league win this season was 3-1 at home to WSG Wattens on 7 August 2026.
- Altach have scored five and conceded ten in six league games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Altach

2.20fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 45.5%

0.0ppshort

The market prices Altach as clear favourites at 2.20, but their away form (0 wins in 3, 0 goals in two of those) does not support that price, so the 42% estimate sits below the implied 45%.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Altach

1.38fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

The 1.38 price implies 72%, but Altach's inability to win away and Lustenau's home resilience make the combined outcome closer to 68%, leaving no value at this short price.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.67fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Combined averages of 3.2 goals per game and a 2-2 H2H support three-plus goals, but the price already reflects it, so this is a fair-odds play rather than a value edge.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches and in the most recent H2H, but the 1.57 price leaves no margin over our 60% estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Altach's superior scoring rate and positive H2H record, combined with Lustenau's leaky home defence (6 conceded in 3 home games), give the visitors a slight edge despite their poor away record.
- Altach average 1.9 goals per game over last 15 vs Lustenau's 1.3
- Altach scored 7 goals in their most recent cup match (last 5 window)
- Lustenau conceded 4 at home to WSG Wattens in their last home league match
- H2H last 5: Altach won 2, drew 2, lost 1, including a 3-0 win at Lustenau in Dec 2023
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAltachEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The derby context and Lustenau's tendency to draw at home, plus Altach's inability to win away (0 wins in 3), make a draw or narrow Altach win the most likely combined outcome.
- Altach have drawn 2 of the last 5 H2H meetings
- Lustenau have drawn 2 of 6 league games this season
- Altach's last 5 league form: LLLLW with 3 away losses
- Lustenau home record: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or AltachEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lustenau's tendency to reach half-time level in recent matches makes a draw at the break the most probable single first-half outcome.
- Lustenau were level at half-time in 4 of their last 5 league matches
- Altach were level at half-time in 2 of their last 5 league matches
- Lustenau average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded
- Altach average 1.0 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' combined scoring and conceding averages point to a match with at least three goals, supported by the attacking intent typical of a sold-out regional derby.
- Altach average 1.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game
- Lustenau average 1.3 scored and 1.1 conceded per game
- Combined average goals per game: 3.2
- Last H2H meeting produced 4 goals (2-2)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have shown consistent scoring form in recent league matches and the H2H pattern suggests both teams finding the net.
- Lustenau scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches
- Altach scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches
- Both teams scored in the most recent H2H (2-2)
- Lustenau have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 5 league games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Altach's strong first-half scoring rate combined with Lustenau's moderate first-half output suggests a reasonable chance of two or more first-half goals.
- Altach average 1.0 first-half goals per game
- Lustenau average 0.6 first-half goals per game
- Altach scored 5 first-half goals in their cup match (last 5 window)
- Combined first-half average: 1.6 goals per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences have shown vulnerability after the break, and derby matches often open up in the second half as fatigue and urgency increase.
- Both teams average over 1.0 goals conceded in the second half of matches
- Lustenau conceded 4 goals total in their last home league match
- Altach conceded 3 goals in their last away league match
- Combined second-half scoring tends to exceed first-half output in these teams' matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lustenau's poor home defensive record and Altach's consistent scoring form make a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Lustenau have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 5 league matches
- Lustenau conceded 6 goals in 3 home league games this season
- Altach scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches
- Altach average 1.9 goals per game over last 15
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAltach to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Altach's away defensive record (5 conceded in 3) and Lustenau's home scoring make an away clean sheet improbable.
- Altach have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 5 league matches
- Altach conceded 5 goals in 3 away league games this season
- Lustenau scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches
- Both teams scored in the most recent H2H
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAustria Lustenau to scoreEstimated chance62%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages of both teams exceed the 8.5 line, though Altach's lower away corner output adds uncertainty.
- Lustenau average 6 corners per game
- Altach average 4.8 corners per game
- Combined average: 10.8 corners per game
- Lustenau recorded 8 corners in their last home league match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The sold-out regional derby context and both teams' disciplinary records point to a match with four or more total cards.
- Lustenau average 2.0 yellow cards and 0.5 red cards per game
- Altach average 1.6 yellow cards per game
- Lustenau committed 12 fouls in their last home league match
- Derby matches typically produce elevated card counts due to intensity
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lustenau's high shot volume in recent matches, combined with Altach's moderate defensive shot concession, supports the over.
- Lustenau average 14.5 shots per game over last 15
- Lustenau recorded 20 shots in a recent home league match
- Lustenau recorded 17 shots in a recent away league match
- Altach allow an average of 11.4 shots per game
BetBugs · Home Shots TotallostAustria Lustenau over 12.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lustenau's recent shot-on-target output hovers around the line, with several matches exceeding it, making the over marginally more likely.
- Lustenau average 4.3 shots on target per game
- Lustenau recorded 6 shots on target in two of their last five league matches
- Altach conceded 5 shots on target in their last away league match
- Lustenau recorded 5 shots on target in their most recent match
BetBugs · Home Shots on Target TotallostAustria Lustenau over 4.5Estimated chance52%