LDU Portoviejo or Draw
Market 64.5% · BetBugs 72%
LDU Portoviejo are unbeaten in five with zero goals conceded and host a single-leg knockout, while Delfín have scored 0 or 1 in five of their last six, so the non-loss side is underpriced at 1.55.
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Predictions gradedPre-match view
LDU Portoviejo's five-match unbeaten run with zero goals conceded, at home in a single-leg knockout, makes them the non-loss side against a Delfín team that has scored 0 or 1 in five of six.
The best value is Double Chance LDU Portoviejo or Draw at 1.55 (implied 65% vs our 72%), with Under 2.5 goals as the supporting read. Avoid the 1X2 win price and the 1.18 first-half Under 1.5, where the market has already priced the slow-start scenario.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 4
Market 64.5% · BetBugs 72%
LDU Portoviejo are unbeaten in five with zero goals conceded and host a single-leg knockout, while Delfín have scored 0 or 1 in five of their last six, so the non-loss side is underpriced at 1.55.
Market 66.7% · BetBugs 68%
Both sides' recent scoring rates (LDU 0.7 scored/0.6 conceded, Delfín 0.8 scored/1.1 conceded per match) and a run of 0-2 goal matches point to a tight single-leg knockout tie.
Market 58.8% · BetBugs 60%
LDU Portoviejo kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 5 while Delfín failed to score in 4 of their last 6, making a blank for at least one side the base case.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 36% vs our 44% estimate is a real gap, but the market makes Delfín the favourite at 2.30 and the 2.80 price on a low-scoring home side in a one-off knockout offers no cushion.

