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Predictions graded

Libertad Loja1Delfin SC0

HT 0–0Tue 21 Jul 2026, 21:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–456%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 15–14On targetOn target 7–3CornersCorners 4–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Jul 2026, 23:15 · Europe/Bucharest

A relegation clash with a clear low-scoring profile: all five recent H2Hs went under 2.5 goals, and both teams average under a goal per game.

The best value is in the first-half markets—Under 0.5 goals at 2.40 and the First-Half Draw at 2.00—where the market significantly underestimates the probability of a goalless opening period.

Context

LigaPro reported on 13 Jul 2026 that Libertad were still not finding their footing after a coaching change.
- By 16 Jul 2026, LigaPro described 'el equipo de Buch' beating Tecnico Universitario 1-0 at home, showing early signs of a bounce.
- The coaching change is very recent, so the team's tactical identity and consistency are still in flux.
LigaPro's 10 Jul and 13 Jul 2026 coverage said Delfin had no margin for slips and were playing with the calculator in hand.
- The 16 Jul recap called their 1-0 derby win over Manta a game full of fear and urgency.
- Both teams are in the relegation zone, but Delfin's explicit survival arithmetic suggests they will prioritize not losing.
Last 3 H2Hs: Delfin 0-0 Libertad, Delfin 0-0 Libertad, Libertad 0-1 Delfin.
- All 5 recent H2Hs had under 2.5 goals (0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0, 1-1).
- Libertad have not scored against Delfin in 270+ minutes of play across the last three encounters.
Libertad average 0.9 goals scored per game; Delfin average 0.8.
- Libertad scored 0 or 1 goal in 13 of last 15 matches; Delfin did the same in 13 of 15.
- Both teams have a first-half goals average of just 0.3, indicating slow starts.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
High-stakes relegation clash between two low-scoring sides with a strong H2H draw trend and poor away form for Delfin makes a draw the most probable single outcome.
- 3 of last 5 H2Hs ended in draws (0-0, 0-0, 1-1).
- Libertad home record: 4W-2D-3L; Delfin away record: 1W-3D-6L.
- Libertad drew 2 of last 5 home matches; Delfin drew 3 of last 5 away matches.
- Both teams are in relegation zone with only 2 points separating them, increasing likelihood of a cautious stalemate.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Delfin's extremely poor away record and Libertad's home resilience under new management make a home win or draw the safer combined outcome.
- Libertad are unbeaten in 3 of last 5 home matches (2W-1D-2L).
- Delfin have won only 1 of 10 away matches this season (1W-3D-6L).
- Libertad have a recent home win under new coach Buch (1-0 vs Tecnico Universitario).
- Delfin have failed to win any of their last 4 away matches (0W-2D-2L).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLibertad Loja or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of low first-half scoring, high draw rates in recent matches, and H2H history of goalless first halves strongly supports a draw at half-time.
- 4 of last 5 H2Hs were draws at half-time.
- Libertad drew 8 of last 15 first halves; Delfin drew 9 of last 15 first halves.
- Libertad trailed at half-time in 33% of matches; Delfin trailed in only 13%.
- Both teams average 0.3 first-half goals scored, indicating low scoring and high draw probability.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The pattern of goalless first halves and full-time draws in H2Hs, combined with both teams' tendency to draw, makes Draw/Draw a plausible HT/FT outcome.
- 2 of last 5 H2Hs ended in 0-0 draws (both Draw/Draw).
- Libertad drew 2 of last 5 home matches; Delfin drew 3 of last 5 away matches.
- Both teams have high draw rates in first halves (Libertad 53%, Delfin 60%).
- Stakes are high for both relegation-threatened sides, promoting a cautious approach.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance38%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Strong H2H pattern of under 2.5 goals combined with both teams' low scoring averages and high-stakes relegation context makes a low-scoring game highly likely.
- Last 5 H2Hs all finished under 2.5 goals (0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0, 1-1).
- Libertad Loja average 0.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over last 15 matches; Delfin SC average 0.8 scored and 1.1 conceded.
- Libertad failed to score in 3 of last 5 matches; Delfin scored 0 or 1 in 4 of last 5.
- Both teams in relegation pressure with explicit 'no margin for error' framing from LigaPro, suggesting cautious, low-event football.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H dominance of clean sheets and both teams' chronic scoring struggles under relegation pressure strongly point to at least one side failing to score.
- Libertad failed to score in last 3 H2Hs against Delfin (0-0, 0-0, 0-1).
- Libertad scored 0 or 1 goal in 13 of last 15 matches; Delfin scored 0 or 1 in 13 of last 15.
- Delfin kept clean sheets in 2 of last 3 H2Hs; Libertad kept 1 clean sheet in last 5 overall.
- Both teams average under 1.0 goals per game this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have extremely low first-half scoring rates, and the H2H history shows a clear pattern of goalless first halves, making under 0.5 first-half goals highly probable.
- Libertad average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Delfin average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded over last 15 matches.
- In last 5 H2Hs, 4 were 0-0 at half-time (0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 1-0, 0-0).
- Libertad led at half-time in only 13% of recent matches; Delfin in 27%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given the low overall scoring trends and the rarity of multi-goal second halves in H2Hs, under 1.5 second-half goals is a solid expectation.
- Libertad average 0.6 second-half goals scored (0.9 total - 0.3 first half); Delfin average 0.5 second-half goals scored.
- In last 5 H2Hs, only 1 match had more than 1 second-half goal (2-0 Libertad win in Aug 2024).
- Both teams have scored more than 1 second-half goal in only 2 of last 15 matches combined.
- Relegation pressure often leads to tighter second halves as teams avoid mistakes.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low corner averages and low possession, and recent H2Hs have trended toward moderate corner counts, making under 8.5 corners likely.
- Libertad average 3.1 corners per match; Delfin average 2.8 corners per match over last 15.
- In last 5 H2Hs, total corners were: 10, 9, 9, 7, 7 (average 8.4, but 3 of 5 under 8.5).
- Libertad home corners average ~3.5; Delfin away corners average ~2.5.
- Low possession teams (Libertad 41.9%, Delfin 35.5%) typically generate fewer corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of high card averages for both teams, recent H2H card trends, and the intense relegation context suggests a slightly above-average card count.
- Libertad average 2.3 yellow cards per match; Delfin average 3.0 yellow cards per match.
- In last 5 H2Hs, total cards (yellows+reds) were: 5, 4, 5, 3, 5 (average 4.4, but 3 of 5 over 4.5).
- Relegation pressure often increases fouls and cards; both teams have high foul averages (~12.5 per match).
- Delfin received 5 yellow cards in 2 of last 5 matches; Libertad received 4 yellows in 2 of last 5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 3D · 1W

D0-0Delfin SCvLibertadMar 21, 2026LIG

D0-0Delfin SCvLibertadSep 2, 2025LIG

W0-1LibertadvDelfin SCMay 11, 2025LIG

L2-0LibertadvDelfin SCAug 31, 2024LIG

D1-1Delfin SCvLibertadMar 25, 2024LIG

Libertad Loja: 3 clean sheetsDelfin SC: 3 clean sheets1 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga Pro 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
15	Libertad Loja Relegation Playoffs	20	5	6	9	18-26	21	LWDLL
13	Delfin SC Relegation Playoffs	20	6	5	9	13-19	23	WWLDL

2pt gap between teamsLibertad Loja in relegation zoneDelfin SC in relegation zone

Recent Form

Libertad Loja

L0-1Barcelona SCJul 19LIG

W1-0Tecnico UniversitarioJul 15LIG

D0-0LDU de QuitoJul 12LIG

L1-3Leones del NorteJul 4LIG

L1-2Manta FCMay 30LIG

W3-2Independiente del ValleMay 23LIG

L0-1Deportivo CuencaMay 16LIG

D1-1EmelecMay 10LIG

W3-2AucasMay 2LIG

L0-3MacaraApr 26LIG

L0-1Guayaquil City FCApr 21LIG

L0-2Universidad CatolicaApr 18LIG

L1-2Orense SCApr 12LIG

D2-2Mushuc Runa SCApr 7LIG

D0-0Delfin SCMar 21LIG

Delfin SC

W2-1MacaraJul 18LIG

W1-0Manta FCJul 15LIG

L1-2Guayaquil City FCJul 11LIG

D1-1EmelecJul 5LIG

L0-1Deportivo CuencaMay 31LIG

L1-2Barcelona SCMay 24LIG

D2-2Universidad CatolicaMay 16LIG

W2-0Baños Ciudad de FuegoMay 12COP

L0-4Tecnico UniversitarioMay 9LIG

W1-0Mushuc Runa SCMay 3LIG

L0-1AucasApr 28LIG

L0-1Independiente del ValleApr 22LIG

D0-0Orense SCApr 19LIG

W1-0LDU de QuitoApr 11LIG

L0-1Leones del NorteApr 5LIG

Squad & Injuries

Libertad Loja

30 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Delfin SC

31 available

Attackers5

Midfielders13

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

No

Under 0.5

Draw

Draw at half-time / Draw at full-time

Libertad Loja or Draw

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

No

Libertad Loja or Draw

Under 8.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Libertad Loja

Delfin SC

Squad & Injuries

Libertad Loja

Delfin SC