Liga ProFull time

Predictions graded

Delfin SC1Orense SC1

HT 1–0Sun 9 Aug 2026, 21:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 38%–62%ShotsShots 9–15On targetOn target 3–4CornersCorners 3–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Aug 2026, 07:56 · Europe/Bucharest

A relegation six-pointer between Delfin and Orense is set for a tense, low-scoring affair.

The strongest betting edge is on under 0.5 first-half goals at 2.40, where our 70% probability dwarfs the market's 41.7% implied chance. Full-match under 2.5 goals at 1.53 also offers solid value, but avoid both-teams-to-score and match-winner markets where edges are minimal or negative.

Context

Delfin have conceded just 7 goals in 11 home Liga Pro matches.
- They kept 6 home clean sheets, including three in their last five at home.
- Only 3 of their 11 home games saw over 2.5 total goals.
Orense scored 0 or 1 goal in 8 of their 11 away matches.
- They were shut out in 4 away games, including a 0-0 draw at Manta FC.
- Their away xG underperformance is visible in low shot-on-target counts (4.5 per away game).
Last three results: 0-0 (Apr 2026), Orense 3-1 (Aug 2025), 0-0 (May 2025).
- Four of the last five H2H matches had under 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in only one of the last five meetings.
Delfin are 14th and Orense 13th in the 16-team Liga Pro, separated by goal difference.
- A defeat for either side would deepen relegation danger with few matches remaining.
- In similar six-pointers this season, both teams have averaged under 1.0 first-half goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are in poor form and fighting relegation, leading to a cautious approach. H2H has a high draw rate, and neither side has a clear edge.
- Delfin SC home record: 5W-2D-4L.
- Orense SC away record: 3W-2D-6L.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws, 1 Orense win, 1 Delfin win.
- Delfin SC last 5 home matches: 2W-1D-2L.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Delfin's home form is relatively solid, and Orense struggles on the road. The home advantage and relegation pressure should help Delfin avoid defeat.
- Delfin SC home: 7 of 11 matches without defeat (5W, 2D).
- Orense SC away: lost 6 of 11, winning only 3.
- H2H at Delfin: 2 draws and 1 Delfin win in last 3 home meetings.
- Delfin SC last 5 home matches: 3 of 5 without defeat.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDelfin SC or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first half is likely to be tight with few goals. Both teams have low halftime lead percentages, and H2H shows a strong draw tendency at the break.
- Delfin SC home: led at halftime in 20% of matches, trailed in 13%.
- Orense SC away: led at halftime in 20% of matches, trailed in 33%.
- H2H last 5: 4 draws at halftime, 1 Orense lead.
- Delfin SC last 5 home matches: 4 draws at halftime, 1 loss.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance60%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are in relegation danger and tend to play cautiously, especially Delfin at home where they concede only 0.64 goals per game. H2H history strongly favors low-scoring affairs.
- Delfin SC home matches: 8 goals for, 7 against in 11 games (avg 1.36 total goals per game).
- Orense SC away matches: 11 goals for, 18 against in 11 games (avg 2.64 total goals per game).
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 matches had under 2.5 goals, including two 0-0 draws.
- Delfin SC last 5 home matches: 3 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Delfin's home defense is solid (7 conceded in 11), and Orense's away attack is inconsistent. H2H pattern shows few matches where both score.
- Delfin SC home: scored in 6 of 11, conceded in 5 of 11.
- Orense SC away: scored in 7 of 11, conceded in 9 of 11.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in only 1 of 5 meetings.
- Delfin SC last 5 home matches: both teams scored in 2 of 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams start slowly, especially Delfin at home where they rarely score or concede in the first half. H2H history shows a strong pattern of goalless first halves.
- Delfin SC home first half goals: 0.3 per game; conceded 0.3 per game.
- Orense SC away first half goals: 0.5 per game; conceded 0.7 per game.
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 matches were 0-0 at halftime.
- Delfin SC last 5 home matches: 4 of 5 had 0-0 at halftime.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
As the match progresses and urgency increases, especially with relegation stakes, the second half is more likely to see a goal. Orense's away defense tends to concede after the break.
- Delfin SC home second half goals: 0.45 per game; conceded 0.36 per game.
- Orense SC away second half goals: 0.55 per game; conceded 0.91 per game.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had second-half goals.
- Delfin SC last 5 home matches: 3 of 5 had second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Delfin's home defense is strong, conceding only 0.64 goals per game. Orense's away attack is inconsistent, but the low probability reflects the risk of a single goal breaking the clean sheet.
- Delfin SC home: 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Orense SC away: failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- H2H last 5: Delfin kept 2 clean sheets against Orense.
- Delfin SC last 5 home matches: 3 clean sheets.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostOrense SC not to scoreEstimated chance40%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average relatively low corner counts, and Delfin's home matches tend to be low-event. H2H history supports a low corner total.
- Delfin SC home corners: 3.1 per game; opponent corners: 5.5 per game (avg total 8.6).
- Orense SC away corners: 4.5 per game; opponent corners: 4.7 per game (avg total 9.2).
- H2H last 5: corner data available for 3 matches, all under 9.5 total corners.
- Delfin SC last 5 home matches: 4 of 5 had under 9.5 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams fighting relegation, the match is likely to be tense and physical. Orense's away matches average 5.0 cards, and recent Delfin home games have seen increased card counts.
- Delfin SC home yellow cards: 2.4 per game; opponent yellow cards: 1.8 per game (avg total 4.2).
- Orense SC away yellow cards: 3.0 per game; opponent yellow cards: 2.0 per game (avg total 5.0).
- Relegation pressure often leads to more fouls and cards.
- Delfin SC last 5 home matches: 3 of 5 had over 4.5 total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 60.6% leaves only 4.4pts edge vs our 65% estimate; MEDIUM confidence and thin margin make it a trap at these odds.

Head-to-Head

0W · 3D · 2W

D0-0Orense SCvDelfin SCApr 19, 2026LIG

L3-1Orense SCvDelfin SCAug 26, 2025LIG

D0-0Delfin SCvOrense SCMay 4, 2025LIG

D0-0Orense SCvDelfin SCNov 1, 2024LIG

L0-1Delfin SCvOrense SCMay 12, 2024LIG

Orense SC unbeaten in 5 meetingsDelfin SC: 3 clean sheetsOrense SC: 4 clean sheets1 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga Pro 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
15	Delfin SC Relegation Playoffs	23	6	5	12	14-23	23	LLLWW
12	Orense SC Relegation Playoffs	23	7	5	11	27-35	26	LLWLL

3pt gap between teamsDelfin SC in relegation zoneOrense SC in relegation zone

Recent Form

Delfin SC

L1-2LDU de QuitoAug 4LIG

L0-1Leones del NorteJul 26LIG

L0-1LibertadJul 21LIG

W2-1MacaraJul 18LIG

W1-0Manta FCJul 15LIG

L1-2Guayaquil City FCJul 11LIG

D1-1EmelecJul 5LIG

L0-1Deportivo CuencaMay 31LIG

L1-2Barcelona SCMay 24LIG

D2-2Universidad CatolicaMay 16LIG

W2-0Baños Ciudad de FuegoMay 12COP

L0-4Tecnico UniversitarioMay 9LIG

W1-0Mushuc Runa SCMay 3LIG

L0-1AucasApr 28LIG

L0-1Independiente del ValleApr 22LIG

Orense SC

L0-3LibertadAug 1LIG

L2-3Independiente del ValleJul 26LIG

W2-1AucasJul 23LIG

L1-2Mushuc Runa SCJul 20LIG

L0-2EmelecJul 17LIG

D0-0Manta FCJul 11LIG

L1-2Tecnico UniversitarioJul 7LIG

L0-3LDU de QuitoJul 1LIG

L1-2CuniburoMay 27COP

L1-2Universidad CatolicaMay 23LIG

W1-0Guayaquil City FCMay 19LIG

W2-0Leones del NorteMay 9LIG

W2-1MacaraMay 3LIG

D1-1Barcelona SCApr 26LIG

W3-1Deportivo CuencaApr 22LIG

Squad & Injuries

Delfin SC

32 available

Attackers6

Midfielders12

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Orense SC

33 available

Attackers7

Midfielders13

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Under 0.5

Draw

Delfin SC or Draw

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 0.5

Under 9.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Delfin SC

Orense SC

Squad & Injuries

Delfin SC

Orense SC