Celtic1Ferencvaros3

HT 1–2Thu 17 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 63%–37%ShotsShots 16–14On targetOn target 4–6CornersCorners 11–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Sep 2026, 05:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Celtic are favourites but the match winner and goals markets offer no value.

The standout edge is Celtic Over 6.5 home corners at 2.50 (+20 points), with a smaller edge on Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.05.

Context

Celtic have been dominant in Scotland, winning their last five Premiership matches and scoring 13 goals in that run.
Their recent home win over Aberdeen on 2026-09-02 produced 27 shots and 12 on target, showing how quickly they can create chances. Ferencvaros have conceded only 0.9 goals per game on average, but they have not faced a side with Celtic's shot volume in recent weeks.
- Celtic average 19.4 shots and 7.7 shots on target per match.
- In their last home league match against Aberdeen on 2026-09-02, Celtic had 27 shots and 12 on target.
Celtic midfielder M. Baur missed training on 11 September after a minor knock.
Martin O'Neill said Baur was fine and would be available to train the following day, so he is not currently expected to be removed from Celtic's midfield options. This keeps a midfield selection and rotation option available for the match.
- M. Baur missed Celtic training on 11 September after picking up a minor knock.
- Martin O'Neill said Baur was fine and would be available to train the following day.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 05:42 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sport report via Yahoonz.news.yahoo.com · 11 Sep 2026
Ferencvaros have been physical in recent matches, committing 20 fouls against Ujpest on 2026-09-06 and 23 against Gyori ETO FC on 2026-09-03.
Celtic average 8.1 corners per match and have scored from set pieces in recent games. If Ferencvaros continue to foul at this rate, Celtic could get more chances from free kicks and corners.
- Ferencvaros average 17.1 fouls per match.
- In their last two league matches, Ferencvaros committed 20 fouls against Ujpest and 23 against Gyori ETO FC.
Celtic have been consistent in domestic and European competition, winning their last five matches across all competitions.
Their most recent European home match was a 3-0 win over LASK Linz on 2026-08-19, where they scored twice in the first half. This form suggests they will be confident at home, but Ferencvaros have also been strong in Europe, beating Trabzonspor 4-0 at home.
- Celtic's last five matches: W, W, W, W, W.
- Celtic beat LASK Linz 3-0 at home on 2026-08-19 in the UEFA Champions League.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Celtic

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Celtic's superior attacking output and home advantage give them the edge, though Ferencvaros' solid defensive record keeps confidence at medium.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Celtic's superior attacking output and home advantage give them the edge, though Ferencvaros' solid defensive record keeps confidence at medium.
- Celtic average 2.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Celtic won 5 of last 6 competitive matches, including 3-0 vs LASK Linz in Champions League.
- Ferencvaros average 1.8 goals scored and 0.9 conceded, but face stronger opposition here.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCelticEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Celtic's strong home record and Ferencvaros' inconsistent away form make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Celtic have not lost at home in their last 5 home matches across all competitions.
- Ferencvaros have won only 2 of their last 5 away matches.
- Celtic's home form includes wins over Aberdeen, Falkirk, and LASK Linz.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostCeltic or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Celtic's first-half dominance is notable, but Ferencvaros' resilience makes this a low-confidence pick.
- Celtic led at half-time in 47% of matches.
- Ferencvaros trailed at half-time in only 13% of matches.
- Celtic average 1.3 first-half goals vs Ferencvaros' 0.5 conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCelticEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Celtic leading at half-time and full-time is plausible but not strongly supported by Ferencvaros' first-half resilience.
- Celtic led at half-time and won in 40% of recent matches.
- Ferencvaros rarely trail at half-time (13%).
- Celtic's home advantage could lead to a controlled win.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostCeltic/CelticEstimated chance30%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, and Celtic's attacking form supports over 2.5 goals.
- Celtic's last 5 matches averaged 3.2 total goals.
- Ferencvaros' last 5 matches averaged 2.8 total goals.
- Celtic scored 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros' consistent scoring and Celtic's occasional defensive lapses suggest both teams can find the net.
- Ferencvaros scored in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Celtic conceded in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Ferencvaros average 1.8 goals scored per match.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have strong first-half scoring records, making at least one first-half goal very likely.
- Celtic average 1.3 first-half goals per match.
- Ferencvaros average 0.9 first-half goals per match.
- Celtic led at half-time in 47% of matches, Ferencvaros in 47%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Celtic's second-half scoring and Ferencvaros' occasional defensive drop-offs support over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Celtic score 1.0 second-half goals on average.
- Ferencvaros concede 0.4 second-half goals on average.
- Combined second-half goal average is 1.4, close to the line.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Celtic's high corner count could push the total over 9.5, but Ferencvaros' lower numbers make it a coin flip.
- Celtic average 8.1 corners per match, Ferencvaros 5.1.
- Celtic's recent home matches produced 6-15 corners.
- Ferencvaros' away matches averaged 5-9 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Celtic's consistent corner production and Ferencvaros' tendency to concede corners support over 6.5 home corners.
- Celtic average 8.1 corners per match overall.
- Celtic earned 6+ corners in 4 of last 5 matches.
- Ferencvaros concede an average of 4.2 corners per away match.
BetBugs · Home CornerswonCeltic over 6.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate shots on target, but the line is high and confidence is low.
- Celtic average 7.7 shots on target per match.
- Ferencvaros average 6.0 shots on target per match.
- Combined average is 13.7, but variance is high.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Card counts are close to the line, making this a low-confidence over bet.
- Celtic average 1.6 yellow cards per match.
- Ferencvaros average 1.7 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average is 3.3, just below the line.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%