Stjarnan2IBV Vestmannaeyjar0

HT 2–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–833%

Edges3–443%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 00:51 · Europe/Bucharest

The rematch between Stjarnan and ÍBV is likely to be open and high-scoring, but the best value is on Over 3.5 goals at 1.70 (model edge +11 points).

Avoid the heavily juiced Over 2.5, BTTS Yes, and Stjarnan win markets, as their odds imply probabilities well above the model's estimates.

Context

IBV Vestmannaeyjar are in 12th place, the bottom of the Úrvalsdeild, with 18 points from 22 matches. They have won only four games all season and have a goal difference of -13.
Their recent form is poor: they have lost four of their last five league matches, including a 0-1 home defeat to Thor Akureyri on 29 August and a 0-1 away loss to Keflavik on 23 August. They did draw 2-2 with Stjarnan on 6 September, but that was their only point in that run. With the relegation line at 20 points, IBV need a result here to avoid falling further behind.
- IBV Vestmannaeyjar are 12th with 18 points, 10 points behind the relegation playoff line.
- They have lost four of their last five league matches: 0-1 vs Thor Akureyri (29 Aug), 0-1 vs Keflavik (23 Aug), 1-3 vs IA Akranes (16 Aug), and 1-2 vs Fram Reykjavik (1 Aug).
- Their only point in that run was a 2-2 draw with Stjarnan on 6 September.
Stjarnan and ÍBV meet again just seven days after their 2-2 draw in the final regular-season round, with both clubs now starting the lower section.
This immediate rematch carries direct lower-section stakes, as the result immediately affects each club's position in the remaining survival-stage schedule. The previous meeting produced four goals, but that sample is only one match and does not guarantee a repeat. The linked analysis suggests over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring are likely, reflecting the attacking patterns seen in that draw.
- Stjarnan and ÍBV drew 2-2 on 6 September, which placed both teams in the lower section.
- The confirmed Round 23 schedule lists Stjarnan versus ÍBV at 14:00 on 13 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 00:50 · Europe/BucharestFotbolti.net: confirmed Round 23 and 24 kick-off timeswww.fotbolti.net · 7 Sep 2026Vísir: Stjarnan 2–2 ÍBV reportwww.visir.is · 6 Sep 2026
Stjarnan are in 7th place with 28 points from 22 matches, but the relegation playoff line is at 20 points, so they are only three points clear of danger.
At home, Stjarnan have won four, drawn two, and lost five of 11 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 24. Their recent home results include a 4-2 win over Thor Akureyri on 23 August and a 1-0 win over Keflavik on 9 August, but also a 2-2 draw with IBV on 6 September. They need to improve their home consistency to secure safety.
- Stjarnan are 7th with 28 points, three points above the relegation playoff line.
- Home record: 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses in 11 matches.
- Recent home results: 4-2 win vs Thor Akureyri (23 Aug), 1-0 win vs Keflavik (9 Aug), 2-2 draw vs IBV (6 Sep).
Stjarnan and IBV Vestmannaeyjar have met twice this season in the Úrvalsdeild.
On 6 September, they drew 2-2 at Stjarnan, with IBV leading 1-0 at half-time. On 21 June, IBV won 2-1 at home, leading 2-1 at half-time. These results show that both teams can score against each other and that the matches have been competitive.
- 6 Sep 2026: Stjarnan 2-2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar (IBV led 1-0 at half-time).
- 21 Jun 2026: IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2-1 Stjarnan (IBV led 2-1 at half-time).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average over 1.7 goals scored and conceded per match, and their last meeting produced four goals, but the odds are heavily juiced.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan's superior recent form and home advantage give them the edge, though their home record is mixed.
- Stjarnan home record: 4W 2D 5L, 23 goals scored, 24 conceded
- IBV away record: 1W 4D 6L, 15 goals scored, 24 conceded
- Stjarnan form last 5: DWWLW; IBV form last 5: DLLLD
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonStjarnanEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan are less likely to lose at home against a struggling IBV side, making double chance a solid option.
- Stjarnan home record: 4W 2D 5L
- IBV away record: 1W 4D 6L
- Last H2H at Stjarnan ended in draw
BetBugs · Double ChancewonStjarnan or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often trail at half-time, but the draw is a plausible outcome given their similar first-half profiles.
- Stjarnan led at half-time in 20% of matches, trailed in 40%
- IBV led at half-time in 27% of matches, trailed in 47%
- Last H2H half-time result: IBV led 1-0
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan's second-half scoring and IBV's second-half conceding suggest a possible home win after the break.
- Stjarnan scored 1.0 second-half goals per match on average
- IBV conceded 1.0 second-half goals per match on average
- Stjarnan won second half in last H2H (2-1)
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostStjarnanEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Stjarnan win is a plausible but low-probability sequence given the teams' patterns.
- Stjarnan drew at half-time in 40% of matches
- Stjarnan won 8 of 22 matches overall
- IBV lost 12 of 22 matches overall
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/StjarnanEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan rarely dominate both halves, making this a low-probability outcome.
- Stjarnan led at half-time in only 20% of matches
- Stjarnan won both halves in 2 of last 15 matches
- IBV trailed at half-time in 47% of matches
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostStjarnanEstimated chance15%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan are less likely to trail at half-time at home, making double chance a reasonable first-half option.
- Stjarnan led at half-time in 20% of matches, drew in 40%
- IBV led at half-time in 27% of matches, drew in 26%
- Last H2H half-time: IBV led
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonStjarnan or DrawEstimated chance65%

Goals0 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high combined goal averages and their recent head-to-head produced four goals, making over 2.5 likely.
- Stjarnan average 2.0 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per match over last 15
- IBV average 1.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match over last 15
- Last H2H ended 2-2 on 2026-09-06
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly find the net and the recent meeting saw both score, supporting BTTS.
- Stjarnan scored in 13 of last 15 matches
- IBV scored in 11 of last 15 matches
- Both teams scored in last H2H (2-2)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined first-half goal averages suggest a moderate chance of two or more goals before the break.
- Stjarnan average 1.0 first-half goals scored, 1.1 conceded
- IBV average 0.7 first-half goals scored, 0.7 conceded
- Last H2H first half: 0-1
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score and concede in the second half, with the recent meeting producing three second-half goals.
- Stjarnan average 1.0 second-half goals scored, 1.0 conceded
- IBV average 1.0 second-half goals scored, 1.0 conceded
- Last H2H second half: 2-1
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams scoring in the first half is possible but not strongly supported by their averages.
- Stjarnan first-half goals: 1.0 scored, 1.1 conceded
- IBV first-half goals: 0.7 scored, 0.7 conceded
- Last H2H first half: only IBV scored
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostYesEstimated chance35%