Real Salt Lake0New York City2

HT 0–1Sun 13 Sept 2026, 01:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–843%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 15–6On targetOn target 6–3CornersCorners 10–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 00:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Real Salt Lake are the likely winners at home, but the odds offer no value on the moneyline or double chance.

Avoid over 2.5 goals and first-half BTTS 'No' as the market has overpriced both. The best play is to stay away from the main markets and look for better prices closer to kickoff.

Context

Real Salt Lake sit 10th in the Western Conference with 29 points, while New York City are 7th in the Eastern Conference with 29 points.
Real Salt Lake's home record is 7 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in 11 matches, scoring 24 goals and conceding 15. New York City's away record is 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses in 11 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 13. This suggests Real Salt Lake are more comfortable at home, but New York City have been competitive on the road.
- Real Salt Lake home record: 7W 2D 2L, 24 goals for, 15 against.
- New York City away record: 3W 4D 4L, 11 goals for, 13 against.
Real Salt Lake midfielder Pablo Ruiz has left the club, joining LA Galaxy before the transfer window closed.
His departure removes a central-midfield option who started two of the last five matches with available lineups. RSL must redistribute possession and progression duties without him, though the September 5 lineup against LAFC already showed a midfield without Ruiz.
- Real Salt Lake announced Ruiz's transfer to LA Galaxy on September 3, completed before the summer transfer window closed.
- The club identified Ruiz's final RSL appearance as the August 29 loss at Colorado.
- RSL's September 5 starting lineup against LAFC did not include Ruiz.
- P. Ruiz started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 00:40 · Europe/BucharestReal Salt Lake Trades MF Pablo Ruiz To LA Galaxywww.rsl.com · 3 Sep 2026Real Salt Lake Secures Comeback 2-2 Draw Against LAFCwww.rsl.com · 5 Sep 2026
Real Salt Lake's recent form is DLLLD, and New York City's is DDDLL.
Real Salt Lake's last five matches include a 2-2 draw with Los Angeles FC on September 6, a 1-0 loss to Colorado Rapids on August 30, and a 3-0 loss to Leon on August 26. New York City's last five include a 0-0 draw with Nashville SC on September 4, a 1-1 draw with Toronto FC on August 29, and a 1-1 draw with New England Revolution on August 23. Both teams are in poor form, which could lead to a cautious match.
- Real Salt Lake last 5: D, L, L, L, D.
- New York City last 5: D, D, D, L, L.
Real Salt Lake defender Justen Glad has been absent since the post-World Cup return due to an adductor injury.
His absence has shifted central-defence selection toward younger alternatives, with Juan José Arias starting six of the previous seven matches and Kobi Henry two of the previous three. The back line against LAFC featured Philip Quinton, Arias, and Lukas Engel, indicating the current defensive setup without Glad.
- RSL reported that Glad had missed all of its regular-season return after the FIFA break because of an adductor injury.
- The club said Juan José Arias had started six of RSL's previous seven matches and Kobi Henry two of the previous three.
- RSL started Philip Quinton, Juan Jose Arias and Lukas Engel in its three-player back line against LAFC on September 5.
- J. Glad started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 00:40 · Europe/BucharestStorylines | Real Salt Lake Returns Home for September Reset Against LAFCwww.rsl.com · 4 Sep 2026Real Salt Lake Secures Comeback 2-2 Draw Against LAFCwww.rsl.com · 5 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Real Salt Lake

1.88fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 53.2%

0.0ppshort

Home side's strong season-long home record (7W-2D-2L) is offset by recent inconsistency and NYCFC's solid away resilience, leaving no value at this price.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Real Salt Lake or Draw

1.29fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

The market has already priced in RSL's home strength, leaving no cushion for the double chance despite the high confidence.

Win Both HalveslostUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.00fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 100%

0.0ppshort

The market has priced this as a certainty, eliminating any value even though 'No' is highly likely.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns in their respective home/away splits, supporting the both teams to score market.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Real Salt Lake's strong home form and NYCFC's mediocre away record give the hosts a clear edge, supported by the structural home/away signal.
- Real Salt Lake home record: 7W-2D-2L in 11 MLS home matches, 24 goals scored, 15 conceded.
- New York City away record: 3W-4D-4L in 11 MLS away matches, 11 goals scored, 13 conceded.
- Real Salt Lake last 5 home matches: 2W-2D-1L, including 3-0 and 4-0 wins.
- New York City last 5 away matches: 1W-2D-2L, with only 3 goals scored.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostReal Salt LakeEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining RSL's strong home form with NYCFC's poor away win rate makes the double chance highly likely, driven by the structural home/away edge.
- Real Salt Lake home record: 7W-2D-2L, with 9 of 11 home matches avoiding defeat.
- New York City away record: 3W-4D-4L, with 7 of 11 away matches failing to win.
- Real Salt Lake last 5 home matches: 2W-2D-1L, only one loss.
- New York City last 5 away matches: 1W-2D-2L, only one win.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostReal Salt Lake or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to be level at half time, especially NYCFC away, making a first half draw a plausible outcome.
- Real Salt Lake first half results at home: 40% leading, 27% trailing, 33% drawing.
- New York City first half results away: 40% leading, 7% trailing, 53% drawing.
- Real Salt Lake last 5 home matches: 2 leads, 1 trail, 2 draws at half time.
- New York City last 5 away matches: 2 leads, 0 trails, 3 draws at half time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
RSL's home advantage often shows in the second half, while NYCFC's away second-half record is weak, giving the hosts a slight edge.
- Real Salt Lake home matches: won second half in 5 of 11, drew in 3, lost in 3.
- New York City away matches: won second half in 2 of 11, drew in 5, lost in 4.
- Real Salt Lake last 5 home matches: won second half in 2, drew in 2, lost in 1.
- New York City last 5 away matches: won second half in 1, drew in 2, lost in 2.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostReal Salt LakeEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The specific HT/FT combination of draw then RSL win has occurred occasionally in RSL home games, but the sample is small, warranting low confidence.
- Real Salt Lake home matches: 2 of 11 had a draw at half time and RSL win at full time.
- New York City away matches: 1 of 11 had a draw at half time and NYCFC loss at full time.
- Real Salt Lake last 5 home matches: 1 draw at half time and win at full time.
- New York City last 5 away matches: 0 draw at half time and loss at full time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Real Salt LakeEstimated chance20%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Winning both halves is rare for RSL even at home, and NYCFC rarely loses both halves away, making 'No' a strong prediction.
- Real Salt Lake home matches: won both halves in only 2 of 11.
- New York City away matches: lost both halves in 2 of 11.
- Real Salt Lake last 5 home matches: won both halves in 1 of 5.
- New York City last 5 away matches: lost both halves in 1 of 5.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
NYCFC's strong first-half away record (rarely trailing) and RSL's moderate first-half home form make Draw or NYCFC a slight favorite in the first half.
- Real Salt Lake first half home record: 40% lead, 27% trail, 33% draw.
- New York City first half away record: 40% lead, 7% trail, 53% draw.
- Real Salt Lake last 5 home matches: 2 leads, 1 trail, 2 draws at half time.
- New York City last 5 away matches: 2 leads, 0 trails, 3 draws at half time.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or New York CityEstimated chance55%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
RSL's home games are high-scoring and NYCFC's away games often feature goals, making over 2.5 a reasonable expectation based on goal trends.
- Real Salt Lake home matches average 3.55 total goals (24 scored + 15 conceded in 11 games).
- New York City away matches average 2.18 total goals (11 scored + 13 conceded in 11 games).
- Real Salt Lake last 5 home matches: 3, 7, 1, 3, 3 goals total, averaging 3.4.
- New York City last 5 away matches: 0, 2, 2, 3, 1 goals total, averaging 1.6.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns in their respective home/away splits, supporting the both teams to score market.
- Real Salt Lake home matches: scored in 9 of 11, conceded in 8 of 11.
- New York City away matches: scored in 7 of 11, conceded in 8 of 11.
- Real Salt Lake last 5 home matches: both teams scored in 3 of 5.
- New York City last 5 away matches: both teams scored in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently score in the first half, making over 0.5 first half goals a strong prediction based on recent first-half scoring trends.
- Real Salt Lake first half goals at home: 0.6 per match average, with 40% leading at half time.
- New York City first half goals away: 0.9 per match average, with 40% leading at half time.
- Real Salt Lake last 5 home matches: first half goals in 4 of 5.
- New York City last 5 away matches: first half goals in 4 of 5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to produce goals in RSL home games, and NYCFC's away matches often see late action, supporting over 1.5 second half goals.
- Real Salt Lake home matches average 1.8 second half goals (total 3.55 - first half 1.2).
- New York City away matches average 1.1 second half goals (total 2.18 - first half 1.4).
- Real Salt Lake last 5 home matches: second half goals in 4 of 5, with 3+ total goals in 3 matches.
- New York City last 5 away matches: second half goals in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first half often sees only one team score or no goals, with both teams scoring in the first half occurring in less than half of recent matches.
- Real Salt Lake first half goals at home: 0.6 per match, first half conceded: 0.6 per match.
- New York City first half goals away: 0.9 per match, first half conceded: 0.5 per match.
- Real Salt Lake last 5 home matches: both teams scored in first half in 2 of 5.
- New York City last 5 away matches: both teams scored in first half in 2 of 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Corner totals are moderate, with RSL home games averaging near 9.8 and NYCFC away near 7.7, making over 8.5 a coin flip.
- Real Salt Lake home matches average 4.3 corners for, opponent corners 5.5 (total 9.8).
- New York City away matches average 2.7 corners for, opponent corners 5.0 (total 7.7).
- Real Salt Lake last 5 home matches: total corners 13, 7, 10, 8, 5 (average 8.6).
- New York City last 5 away matches: total corners 6, 10, 7, 5, 9 (average 7.4).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Card totals are moderate, with both teams averaging around 4-5 cards in their respective home/away splits, making over 3.5 a near 50% proposition.
- Real Salt Lake home matches average 2.5 yellow cards for, opponent 1.8 (total 4.3).
- New York City away matches average 2.3 yellow cards for, opponent 2.5 (total 4.8).
- Real Salt Lake last 5 home matches: total cards 3, 6, 4, 5, 3 (average 4.2).
- New York City last 5 away matches: total cards 5, 4, 5, 3, 7 (average 4.8).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%