Pacific FC0Cavalry FC1

HT 0–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 22:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–833%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 10–19On targetOn target 2–3CornersCorners 4–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 23:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Cavalry FC are clear favourites to win and clinch a playoff berth, but the odds offer no value on the away win or double chance.

The only positive edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.15, where our 55% estimate exceeds the implied 46.5%, driven by Pacific's need to attack and their defensive struggles.

Context

Cavalry FC have won 14 of 20 league matches and lost only twice. Pacific FC have won once and lost 12 times in the same number of games.
The table gap comes from Cavalry FC scoring 40 goals and conceding 12, while Pacific FC have scored 25 and conceded 42. Cavalry FC also have a strong away record with six wins in ten matches, so they are likely to control this game. Pacific FC's only home win came against HFX Wanderers FC on August 30, and they have lost seven of ten home matches.
- Cavalry FC are 1st with 46 points; Pacific FC are 8th with 10 points.
- Cavalry FC have 14 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses; Pacific FC have 1 win, 7 draws, 12 losses.
- Cavalry FC away record: 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; Pacific FC home record: 1 win, 2 draws, 7 losses.
Cavalry FC can secure a playoff place with a win or draw, while Pacific FC will be eliminated if they fail to win and Vancouver FC better their result.
The sharply defined late-season incentives can affect urgency and game-state management. Cavalry may manage the match to protect a result that clinches their postseason place, while Pacific must push for a win to avoid depending on Vancouver FC's result. This could lead to more risk-taking from Pacific late in the match if the score is level.
- Cavalry can book a playoff place with a win or draw, although other results could secure it before kickoff.
- Pacific will be eliminated from playoff contention if they fail to win and Vancouver FC better their result.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 23:32 · Europe/BucharestCanadian Premier League match previewwww.cplsoccer.com · 11 Sep 2026
The teams have met three times in 2026, and Cavalry FC won every match.
Cavalry FC scored eight goals across those three games and conceded only two. The most recent league meeting on May 24 ended 3-0 to Cavalry FC at home. Pacific FC have not beaten Cavalry FC in their last five meetings, with the last Pacific FC win coming on August 4, 2025.
- 2026-05-24: Cavalry FC 3-0 Pacific FC (league)
- 2026-05-09: Pacific FC 1-3 Cavalry FC (Canadian Championship)
- 2026-04-05: Pacific FC 1-2 Cavalry FC (league)
Pacific FC's home record is the worst in the league, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 7 losses.
They have conceded 20 goals at home while scoring 13. Their only home win came against HFX Wanderers FC on August 30, a 4-3 result. In their last home match against Cavalry FC on April 5, they lost 1-2.
- Pacific FC home record: 1 win, 2 draws, 7 losses in 10 matches.
- Pacific FC have scored 13 and conceded 20 at home.
- Last home match vs Cavalry FC: 1-2 loss on 2026-04-05.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Cavalry FC

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Cavalry's dominant league position and recent form make them clear favourites, though the odds offer no value edge.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Cavalry FC

1.14fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 87.7%

0.0ppshort

Pacific's poor win rate and Cavalry's consistency make a Cavalry win or draw highly likely, but the odds are too short for value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cavalry's superior league position, recent form, and H2H dominance make them clear favourites.
- Cavalry FC rank 1st with 46 points from 20 matches (14W-4D-2L), while Pacific FC rank 8th with 10 points (1W-7D-12L).
- Cavalry FC have won 4 of their last 5 matches, Pacific FC have won only 1 of their last 5.
- Cavalry FC have won 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings, including a 3-0 home win in May 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCavalry FCEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pacific's poor win rate and Cavalry's consistency make a Cavalry win or draw highly likely.
- Pacific FC have only 1 win in 20 league matches this season.
- Cavalry FC have lost only 2 of 20 league matches.
- Cavalry FC are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4W-1D).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Cavalry FCEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cavalry's strong first-half defensive record gives them a slight edge, but the probability remains low.
- Cavalry FC lead at half-time in 33% of their matches, Pacific FC in 40%.
- Cavalry FC have trailed at half-time in only 7% of matches, Pacific FC in 20%.
- Cavalry FC have won the first half in 2 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCavalry FCEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cavalry's superior second-half performance and Pacific's late-game struggles favour Cavalry.
- Cavalry FC have a +0.6 second-half goal difference per match, Pacific FC have +0.2.
- Cavalry FC have won the second half in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Pacific FC have lost the second half in 4 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonCavalry FCEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cavalry's ability to control matches from the start makes a half-time/full-time double plausible.
- Cavalry FC have led at half-time and won the match in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Pacific FC have not won a match when trailing at half-time in their last 15 matches.
- Cavalry FC have won 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostCavalry FC/Cavalry FCEstimated chance30%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent goal averages and H2H history point to a relatively high-scoring match.
- Pacific FC average 3.4 total goals per match (1.3 for, 2.1 against) over their last 15 matches.
- Cavalry FC average 2.9 total goals per match (2.0 for, 0.9 against) over their last 15 matches.
- 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings have produced over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pacific's ability to score at home and Cavalry's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring plausible.
- Pacific FC have scored in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- Cavalry FC have conceded in 8 of their last 15 matches.
- Pacific FC have scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, making a first-half goal likely.
- Pacific FC average 1.0 first-half goals per match (0.6 for, 0.4 against) over their last 15 matches.
- Cavalry FC average 0.9 first-half goals per match (0.7 for, 0.2 against) over their last 15 matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 matches had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is common for both teams, especially with Pacific's defensive struggles.
- Pacific FC average 2.4 second-half goals per match (1.3 for, 1.1 against) over their last 15 matches.
- Cavalry FC average 2.0 second-half goals per match (1.3 for, 0.7 against) over their last 15 matches.
- Pacific FC have conceded 2+ goals in 6 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner averages suggest a moderate total, but the lack of H2H corner data lowers confidence.
- Pacific FC average 3.8 corners per match, Cavalry FC average 5.2 corners per match.
- Combined average corners per match is 9.0.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, corner data is unavailable for most matches.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high volume of shots on target, making over 8.5 plausible.
- Pacific FC average 6.0 shots on target per match, Cavalry FC average 5.3.
- Combined average shots on target per match is 11.3.
- Pacific FC have had 7+ shots on target in 3 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' card averages suggest a moderate total, but the market line is close to the average.
- Pacific FC average 1.8 yellow cards per match, Cavalry FC average 2.2.
- Combined average yellow cards per match is 4.0.
- Pacific FC have received 3+ yellow cards in 3 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance45%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 62.5% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Cavalry FC has converted only 3 of 7 recent win projections

Cavalry FC has fulfilled 3 of 7 recent match-winner predictions. The missed results include three draws and one loss, with no subject wins among the misses. The current 62% probability sits within the historical range of 45% to 68%, but the average estimated probability of 57.3% has produced fewer wins than expected.

Recent evidence for Cavalry FC7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Canadian Premier League