Cavalry FC2Supra Quebec1

HT 1–0Wed 29 Jul 2026, 01:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–722%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Jul 2026, 16:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Cavalry are favorites at home but the odds offer no value; the real edge lies in a low-scoring match.

Under 2.5 goals (+18.3% edge) and Under 0.5 first-half goals (+32.2% edge) are the standout bets, backed by Cavalry's defensive record and both teams' slow starts. Avoid the home win and Over 2.5 markets where the prices are too short.

Context

Kobza was sent off in Cavalry's last league match on July 25.
- Coach Wheeldon confirmed Paton and Baldisimo will likely start in central midfield.
- Kobza had been a regular starter, so his absence could disrupt Cavalry's rhythm.
Cavalry are second in the table and have a game in hand on Forge.
- Victory here would cut Forge's lead to four points, though Cavalry would have played one more match.
- The CPL preview highlights the title incentive for the home side.
Supra are outside the playoff places but have multiple games in hand on rivals.
- This match is one of their rescheduled fixtures, offering a chance to gain ground.
- The CPL preview notes Supra's need for a result to protect their playoff position.
The match was postponed from June 28 due to severe weather and rescheduled for July 28.
- Cavalry coach Wheeldon said recovery was the priority after the July 24 game.
- Short rest could affect energy levels and increase the chance of a slow, tactical start.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cavalry's strong home form and title motivation, combined with Supra's defensive vulnerabilities on the road, give the hosts a clear edge despite the tight H2H.
- Cavalry FC home record: 3W-2D-0L, 10 goals scored, 3 conceded in 5 matches (season).
- Supra Quebec away record: 2W-1D-2L, 10 goals scored, 11 conceded in 5 matches (season).
- Cavalry FC last 5 matches: 3W-1D-1L, 10 goals scored, 3 conceded.
- Supra Quebec last 5 matches: 2W-1D-2L, 11 goals scored, 14 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCavalry FCEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cavalry's home invincibility and Supra's inconsistent away form make a home win or draw highly probable.
- Cavalry FC unbeaten at home this season (3W-2D-0L).
- Supra Quebec have lost 2 of 5 away matches, with only 2 wins.
- Cavalry FC have lost only 2 of 13 league matches overall.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCavalry FC or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages and a high frequency of draws at the break.
- Cavalry FC led at halftime in only 27% of matches (4 of 15).
- Supra Quebec led at halftime in 29% of matches (4 of 14).
- H2H: first half ended 0-0.
- Cavalry FC first half goals: 0.7 per match; Supra Quebec first half goals: 0.6 per match.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cavalry's tendency to score late and Supra's second-half defensive frailties suggest the hosts could edge the second period.
- Cavalry FC have scored 60% of their goals in the second half (14 of 23).
- Supra Quebec have conceded 65% of their goals in the second half (15 of 23).
- H2H: Cavalry scored the only goal in the 88th minute.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableCavalry FCEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A repeat of the H2H pattern is possible given Cavalry's habit of drawing at halftime before pulling away.
- Cavalry FC drew at halftime in 60% of matches (9 of 15).
- Cavalry FC won 8 of 13 league matches, often after a level first half.
- H2H: Draw at halftime, Cavalry win at fulltime.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Cavalry FCEstimated chance30%

Goals0 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cavalry's defensive solidity at home and the low-scoring H2H suggest a tight, low-scoring affair.
- Cavalry FC home matches average 2.6 total goals (10 scored, 3 conceded in 5 games).
- Supra Quebec away matches average 4.2 total goals, but heavily skewed by one 5-goal game.
- H2H: only meeting ended 1-0.
- Cavalry FC have kept 7 clean sheets in 13 league matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cavalry's strong defense and Supra's occasional scoring struggles point to at least one side failing to score.
- Cavalry FC have kept clean sheets in 7 of 13 league matches.
- Supra Quebec failed to score in 3 of 12 league matches, including the H2H vs Cavalry.
- Cavalry FC home clean sheets in 2 of 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cavalry's defensive record is strong, but Supra's attacking threat on the road makes a home clean sheet less certain.
- Cavalry FC have kept 7 clean sheets in 13 league matches.
- Supra Quebec have failed to score in 3 of 12 league matches.
- Cavalry FC kept a clean sheet in the only H2H meeting.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSupra Quebec not to scoreEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Cavalry's overall scoring record, the tight H2H and Supra's occasional defensive resilience suggest a low-scoring home output.
- Cavalry FC average 2.0 goals per home match, but 3 of 5 home games had under 1.5 team goals.
- Supra Quebec concede 2.2 goals per away match on average.
- H2H: Cavalry scored only 1 goal.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostCavalry FC under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cavalry's defensive strength gives them a good chance to shut out Supra, but Supra's away scoring record introduces risk.
- Supra Quebec have failed to score in 3 of 12 league matches.
- Cavalry FC have kept clean sheets in 7 of 13 league matches.
- Supra Quebec average 2.0 goals per away match, but this is inflated by one 5-goal game.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostSupra Quebec under 0.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring rates for both teams and a goalless first half in the H2H make a scoreless opening period likely.
- Cavalry FC first half goals: 0.7 per match; first half goals conceded: 0.1 per match.
- Supra Quebec first half goals: 0.6 per match; first half goals conceded: 0.6 per match.
- H2H: first half ended 0-0.
- Cavalry FC had 0 first-half goals in 3 of last 5 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined average suggests a total above 9.5 is plausible.
- Cavalry FC average 5.8 corners per match; Supra Quebec average 4.8 corners per match.
- Combined average: 10.6 corners per match.
- In matches with corner data, Cavalry had 9, 5, 3, 13, 3 corners; Supra had 5, 2, 3, 4, 10 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Prediction history

Cavalry FC has struggled to convert win projections

Cavalry FC has fulfilled only 2 of 6 recent win predictions. The 4 missed predictions all ended in draws, with no losses when projected to win. Their current 55% probability sits within the historical range of 45–68%, but the average probability in missed matches (59%) was slightly higher than in fulfilled ones (55%).

Recent evidence for Cavalry FC6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jul·Canadian Premier League