Malmo FF4Orgryte1

HT 0–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 14:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 25–7On targetOn target 12–1CornersCorners 5–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 00:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Malmö are clear favourites but their poor home form and missing attackers make the 1.38 price poor value.

Avoid backing the home win, Over 2.5, or BTTS pre-match; consider waiting for in-play angles if Malmö start slowly.

Context

Orgryte are 15th in the Allsvenskan table with 15 points from 20 matches, sitting in the relegation zone.
Their away record is particularly poor: two wins and eight losses in ten matches, with only seven goals scored and 25 conceded. This suggests they struggle to control games on the road and often concede heavily. Malmo's home form is also below par, but Orgryte's defensive fragility away from home could give Malmo chances to score.
- Orgryte have lost 8 of 10 away league matches this season.
- They have conceded 25 goals in those away matches, an average of 2.5 per game.
- Their away record is 2 wins, 0 draws, 8 losses.
Malmo are 7th in the Allsvenskan with 30 points, but their home record is worse than their away record.
At home, Malmo have won only three, drawn one, and lost six of ten matches, scoring 20 and conceding 19. This is a significant drop from their usual dominance at home. However, Orgryte's away form is even worse, so Malmo may still be favored to win this match.
- Malmo have lost 6 of 10 home league matches this season.
- Their home record is 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses.
- They have scored 20 and conceded 19 goals at home.
Orgryte are 15th in the 16-team Allsvenskan with 15 points from 20 matches.
They are four points behind 14th-placed Degerfors IF, who have 19 points. With only 10 matches left, Orgryte need to start winning, especially away from home. This pressure could lead to a more attacking approach, but it may also expose their defense further.
- Orgryte are 15th in the Allsvenskan table.
- They have 15 points from 20 matches.
- They are 4 points behind 14th-placed Degerfors IF.
Malmö attacker S. Hakšabanović is suspended after his booking against AIK.
His absence removes a wide attacking option from Malmö's selection for the Örgryte match. The team will need to adjust its attacking rotation without him.
- Hakšabanović received a yellow card after an incident with AIK defender Mads Thychosen during Malmö's 0-0 draw with AIK.
- Hakšabanović told TV4 that the card leaves him suspended for the next round.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 00:40 · Europe/BucharestFotbollskanalen: Haksabanovic on his yellow cardfk.a2d.tv · 7 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Malmo FF's superior overall quality and Orgryte's poor away form make a home win likely, though Malmo's own home struggles temper confidence.
- Malmo FF home record: 3W-1D-6L, but overall 9W-3D-8L vs Orgryte 3W-6D-11L
- Orgryte away record: 2W-0D-8L, goals for 7, against 25
- Malmo FF average 1.9 goals scored vs Orgryte 1.2, and concede 1.5 vs 2.1
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMalmo FFEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Orgryte's dreadful away form and Malmo's overall superiority make a Malmo win or draw highly probable.
- Orgryte away record: 2W-0D-8L, only 2 wins in 10 away matches
- Malmo FF home record: 3W-1D-6L, but overall stronger squad
- H2H last meeting: 1-1 draw
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMalmo FF or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Malmo's stronger first-half scoring and Orgryte's tendency to trail at the break give Malmo an edge, but draw remains likely.
- Malmo FF leading at half-time in 27% of matches
- Orgryte trailing at half-time in 60% of matches
- Malmo FF average 0.9 first-half goals vs Orgryte 0.5
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostMalmo FFEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Malmo leading at half-time and full-time is possible given Orgryte's away struggles, but Malmo's inconsistent home form lowers confidence.
- Malmo FF home win rate: 30%
- Orgryte away loss rate: 80%
- Malmo FF leading at half-time in 27% of matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostMalmo FF/Malmo FFEstimated chance35%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' defensive vulnerabilities, especially Orgryte's away, suggest a high-scoring match.
- Malmo FF average 1.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match
- Orgryte average 1.2 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per match
- Orgryte away matches average 3.2 total goals (7 scored, 25 conceded in 10 games)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score, and Malmo's defense has been leaky, making both teams scoring likely.
- Malmo FF have scored in 14 of 15 recent matches
- Orgryte have scored in 10 of 15 recent matches
- Malmo FF have conceded in 12 of 15 recent matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, with Malmo's attacking intent likely to produce early chances.
- Malmo FF average 0.9 first-half goals scored
- Orgryte average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded
- Malmo FF first-half goals conceded average 0.9
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is plausible given both teams' tendency to concede late, but confidence is low due to variability.
- Malmo FF average 1.0 second-half goals (total 1.9 - 0.9 first half)
- Orgryte average 0.7 second-half goals (total 1.2 - 0.5 first half)
- Combined average second-half goals: 1.7
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, but the total is slightly below the line, making over 9.5 a marginal call.
- Malmo FF average 4.5 corners per match
- Orgryte average 4.1 corners per match
- Combined average 8.6 corners per match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average is exactly at the line, making this a coin-flip prediction with low confidence.
- Malmo FF average 4.8 shots on target per match
- Orgryte average 3.7 shots on target per match
- Combined average 8.5 shots on target per match
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%