FC Dallas2Portland Timbers1

HT 1–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges3–0100%

PossPossession 39%–61%ShotsShots 9–18On targetOn target 5–4CornersCorners 7–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 05:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Expect a competitive, high-scoring match with both teams likely to score, but the market has already priced Over 2.5, BTTS Yes, and FC Dallas double chance at unattractive odds.

No positive betting edge is present; the top actionable takeaway is to avoid these short-priced markets.

Context

Portland Timbers are 8th in the Western Conference with 31 points from 23 matches.
Their away record is poor: 2 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses in 11 games, with 15 goals scored and 21 conceded. FC Dallas have been stronger at home, with 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses in 10 matches. This contrast suggests Portland may struggle to control the game in Dallas.
- Portland away record: 2W 2D 7L, 15 goals for, 21 against.
- FC Dallas home record: 4W 4D 2L, 22 goals for, 19 against.
Portland host St. Louis CITY SC on Wednesday before travelling to face FC Dallas on Saturday.
The compressed recovery window and added cross-country trip may force rotation or affect late-week physical readiness. Dallas also play Wednesday but without the same travel burden.
- Portland's official schedule lists St. Louis CITY SC at Providence Park on Wednesday, September 9 at 7:30 p.m. PT.
- The same schedule lists Portland away to FC Dallas on Saturday, September 12 at 5:30 p.m. PT.
- FC Dallas announced an away match at Minnesota United on Wednesday, September 9 before the Portland fixture.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 05:29 · Europe/BucharestPortland Timbers 2026 schedulewww.timbers.com · 20 Nov 2025FC Dallas Minnesota United match previewwww.fcdallas.com · 9 Sep 2026
FC Dallas and Portland Timbers have met five times in MLS since 2024.
The most recent match on 2026-07-23 ended 2-2 in Portland, and the previous one on 2025-09-28 also ended 2-2. Three of the five meetings have been draws. This pattern suggests the teams are evenly matched, but past results do not guarantee a repeat.
- 2026-07-23: Portland 2-2 FC Dallas.
- 2025-09-28: Portland 2-2 FC Dallas.
- 2025-08-10: FC Dallas 2-0 Portland.
FC Dallas averages 1.0 first-half goals conceded per match.
They have trailed at halftime in 27% of their matches and led in 40%. Portland averages 1.0 first-half goals scored and has led at halftime in 27% of matches. This suggests Portland may find early chances, but FC Dallas often responds later.
- FC Dallas first-half goals conceded average: 1.0.
- FC Dallas trailing at halftime: 27%.
- Portland first-half goals scored average: 1.0.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.30fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high-scoring recent form and H2H history, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.40fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Both attacks are consistent and defenses leak goals, but the odds do not offer value relative to our probability.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

FC Dallas or Draw

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

FC Dallas are strong at home and Portland struggle away, making a home win or draw highly probable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and better overall form give FC Dallas a slight edge, but Portland's attacking threat keeps confidence low.
- FC Dallas home record: 4W-4D-2L, 22 goals for, 19 against.
- Portland away record: 2W-2D-7L, 15 goals for, 21 against.
- FC Dallas rank 4th in West with 37 points; Portland rank 8th with 31.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFC DallasEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FC Dallas are strong at home and Portland struggle away, making a home win or draw highly probable.
- FC Dallas home record: 4W-4D-2L.
- Portland away record: 2W-2D-7L.
- FC Dallas unbeaten in 8 of 10 home matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFC Dallas or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often trail at half-time, but a draw at both intervals is a low-probability but plausible outcome.
- FC Dallas led at half-time in 40% of matches, trailed in 27%.
- Portland led at half-time in 27%, trailed in 47%.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at full-time, 1 draw at half-time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring recent form and H2H history, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- FC Dallas average 1.9 goals for and 1.9 goals against over last 15 matches.
- Portland Timbers average 2.3 goals for and 1.9 goals against over last 15 matches.
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 2-2, 2-2, 2-0, 0-0, 3-2 (3 of 5 over 2.5).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both attacks are consistent and defenses leak goals, supporting both teams scoring.
- FC Dallas scored in 13 of last 15 matches.
- Portland Timbers scored in 13 of last 15 matches.
- Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score and concede in the first half, pushing the first-half total over 1.5.
- FC Dallas average 1.1 first-half goals for and 1.0 against.
- Portland average 1.0 first-half goals for and 1.3 against.
- Combined first-half goal average is 2.1.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is elevated by Portland's attacking output, making over 1.5 second-half goals plausible.
- FC Dallas average 0.8 second-half goals for and 0.9 against.
- Portland average 1.3 second-half goals for and 0.6 against.
- Combined second-half goal average is 1.8.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate and concede corners at a rate that supports over 9.5 total corners.
- FC Dallas average 3.8 corners for and 6.6 against (total 10.4).
- Portland average 5.2 corners for and 5.1 against (total 10.3).
- Combined average corners per match: 10.35.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce high shot-on-target volumes, making over 8.5 likely.
- FC Dallas average 4.3 shots on target for and 5.7 against (total 10.0).
- Portland average 5.1 shots on target for and 5.3 against (total 10.4).
- Combined average shots on target per match: 10.2.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card average sits exactly at the line, making over 4.5 a coin flip.
- FC Dallas average 2.7 yellow cards per match.
- Portland average 1.8 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 76.9% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; vig too heavy for a directional Over play.

Prediction history

FC Dallas has been highly reliable when projected to see over 2.5 goals

FC Dallas has fulfilled 3 of 4 over 2.5 goals projections, with an average estimated probability of 65.5% and an expected 2.6 fulfilled predictions. The missed match had a higher estimated probability (70%) than the matched average (64%), suggesting the model was slightly overconfident in that instance. All four matches occurred away from home, where FC Dallas has a 75% fulfilment rate, and the current probability of 62% sits within the historical range of 60-72%.

Recent evidence for FC Dallas4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer