CA Patronato0CA Temperley0

HT 0–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–283%

Edges5–183%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Sep 2026, 07:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Temperley's away win at 3.30 offers the best value, with a model edge of +15 points despite two suspensions and Hauche's absence.

The match is likely to be low-scoring, but the under 2.5 goals market is already efficiently priced. Avoid the heavily juiced double chance and first-half double chance markets for Patronato.

Context

Temperley sits second in Group 2 with 49 points and is in the promotion playoff places.
Temperley has won four consecutive matches, including a 3-1 home win over Colegiales on September 6 and a 1-0 away win at Quilmes on August 30. This run shows they are in strong form and likely to attack with confidence. Patronato, by contrast, has only one win in their last five matches, so Temperley's recent results give them a clear edge in this matchup.
- Temperley beat Colegiales 3-1 at home on 2026-09-06.
- Temperley beat Quilmes 1-0 away on 2026-08-30.
- Temperley beat Midland 2-1 at home on 2026-08-23.
- Temperley beat Los Andes 3-0 at home on 2026-08-16.
Temperley midfielder F. Díaz has completed a two-match suspension and is the reported replacement for Gerónimo Tomasetti, who is banned after a fifth booking against Colegiales. Díaz started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
The enforced change alters the personnel available to organize Temperley's central unit. Díaz's recent involvement suggests he can step into the role, but the switch removes Tomasetti's specific contribution and may affect the midfield's balance.
- Diario La Unión reported that Gerónimo Tomasetti's fifth booking against Colegiales made him unavailable for Patronato.
- The report said F. Díaz had completed a two-match suspension and was available to Nicolás Domingo.
- It identified F. Díaz as Temperley's intended midfield replacement.
- F. Díaz started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 07:47 · Europe/BucharestDiario La Unión — Los cambios que prepara Nicolás Domingo en Temperley para ir a Paranálaunion.com.ar · 10 Sep 2026
Temperley attacker F. Krüger is the reported incoming forward after Marcos Echeverría's suspension. Echeverría scored twice in the win over Colegiales, while Krüger started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
The suspension forces a change to Temperley's forward selection from its latest league win. Krüger's limited recent starts mean the attack loses a proven scorer and must adjust to a different profile up front.
- Diario La Unión reported that Marcos Echeverría's fifth booking against Colegiales triggered a two-match suspension because it was his tenth of the season.
- The report said F. Krüger entered for Echeverría against Colegiales.
- It identified F. Krüger as the player who would join Temperley's attack at Patronato.
- F. Krüger started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 07:47 · Europe/BucharestDiario La Unión — Los cambios que prepara Nicolás Domingo en Temperley para ir a Paranálaunion.com.ar · 10 Sep 2026
Temperley are two points behind Zona B leaders Tristán Suárez, while Patronato are two points clear of the relegation place.
The table situation gives Patronato a strong incentive to protect its safety margin and Temperley an incentive to sustain pressure on the leaders. Both sides enter with direct promotion and relegation stakes, which can shape their approach to the match.
- Diario La Unión reported on 10 September that Temperley were two points behind Zona B leaders Tristán Suárez.
- Diario UNO Entre Ríos reported on 7 September that Patronato were two points clear of the relegation place.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 07:47 · Europe/BucharestDiario La Unión — Los cambios que prepara Nicolás Domingo en Temperley para ir a Paranálaunion.com.ar · 10 Sep 2026Diario UNO Entre Ríos — Nueva Chicago ganó y Patronato quedó más apretado en la pelea por no descenderwww.unoentrerios.com.ar · 8 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

CA Patronato or Draw

1.30fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have strong unbeaten records in their respective home/away splits, and the recent H2H draw supports a low-scoring, tight contest where CA Patronato can avoid defeat.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

CA Patronato or Draw

1.20fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

CA Patronato's strong first-half resilience at home and the low-scoring first-half trend make it likely they will be level or ahead at the break.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.36fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' defensive solidity, especially Temperley's away record and Patronato's low scoring output, strongly indicate a low-scoring match.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.20fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low first-half scoring rates and strong first-half defensive records, making a quiet opening 45 minutes likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CA Temperley's superior league position, away solidity, and strong recent form give them the edge, though CA Patronato's home resilience and relegation motivation keep the probability moderate.
- CA Temperley rank 2nd with 49 points, 13 wins, 10 draws, 5 losses; CA Patronato rank 16th with 29 points, 5 wins, 14 draws, 9 losses.
- CA Temperley away record: 4 wins, 7 draws, 3 losses, 8 goals scored, 7 conceded; CA Patronato home record: 4 wins, 6 draws, 4 losses, 17 scored, 15 conceded.
- CA Temperley recent form: WWWWL (last 5), averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.7 conceded; CA Patronato recent form: DLWDL, averaging 0.9 scored and 1.3 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCA TemperleyEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have strong unbeaten records in their respective home/away splits, and the recent H2H draw supports a low-scoring, tight contest where CA Patronato can avoid defeat.
- CA Patronato home record: 4 wins, 6 draws, 4 losses (10 unbeaten in 14 home matches).
- CA Temperley away record: 4 wins, 7 draws, 3 losses (11 unbeaten in 14 away matches).
- Head-to-head last meeting (2026-04-25): 0-0 draw at Temperley.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCA Patronato or DrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The teams' similar first-half scoring and defensive profiles, along with the recent H2H pattern, point to a level score at the break.
- CA Patronato first-half results: 40% led, 13% trailed, 47% drew; CA Temperley: 53% led, 13% trailed, 34% drew.
- Both teams average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded.
- Last H2H meeting was 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CA Temperley's superior second-half scoring and defensive numbers give them a slight edge to win the second period, though the low overall scoring keeps confidence low.
- CA Temperley average 0.9 second-half goals scored vs CA Patronato's 0.2 second-half goals scored.
- CA Temperley concede 0.4 second-half goals vs CA Patronato's 1.0 second-half goals conceded.
- CA Temperley have won 4 of their last 5 matches, often scoring late.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostCA TemperleyEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time and full-time is plausible given both teams' tendency to draw and the recent goalless H2H, but the probability remains low due to CA Temperley's overall superiority.
- CA Patronato have drawn 14 of 28 league matches; CA Temperley have drawn 10 of 28.
- Both teams have high first-half draw rates (47% for Patronato, 34% for Temperley).
- Last H2H meeting ended 0-0.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CA Patronato's strong first-half resilience at home and the low-scoring first-half trend make it likely they will be level or ahead at the break.
- CA Patronato first-half: 40% led, 47% drew, 13% trailed (87% not trailing at half-time).
- CA Temperley first-half: 53% led, 34% drew, 13% trailed (87% not trailing at half-time).
- Both teams average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonCA Patronato or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals6 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' defensive solidity, especially CA Temperley's away record and CA Patronato's low scoring output, strongly indicate a low-scoring match.
- CA Patronato average 0.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match; CA Temperley average 1.6 scored and 0.7 conceded.
- CA Temperley away matches average 0.57 goals scored and 0.5 conceded; CA Patronato home matches average 1.21 scored and 1.07 conceded.
- Last H2H meeting ended 0-0; 3 of last 5 H2H meetings had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
CA Temperley's strong away defense and CA Patronato's inconsistent scoring suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- CA Temperley away: 8 goals scored, 7 conceded in 14 matches; CA Patronato home: 17 scored, 15 conceded in 14 matches.
- CA Patronato failed to score in 6 of 15 recent matches; CA Temperley kept clean sheets in 5 of 15 recent matches.
- Last H2H meeting ended 0-0.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates and strong first-half defensive records, making a quiet opening 45 minutes likely.
- CA Patronato average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded; CA Temperley average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded.
- CA Patronato led at half-time in 40% of matches, trailed in 13%; CA Temperley led in 53%, trailed in 13%.
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.0 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates remain modest for both teams, supporting a low total in the final 45 minutes.
- CA Patronato average 0.2 second-half goals scored (0.9 total - 0.7 first half); CA Temperley average 0.9 second-half goals scored (1.6 total - 0.7 first half).
- CA Patronato concede 1.0 second-half goals on average (1.3 total - 0.3 first half); CA Temperley concede 0.4 second-half goals on average (0.7 total - 0.3 first half).
- Combined second-half goal average: 1.25 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CA Temperley's excellent away defensive record and CA Patronato's scoring struggles give the visitors a solid chance of a clean sheet.
- CA Temperley away: 7 goals conceded in 14 matches (0.5 per game), with 7 clean sheets.
- CA Patronato home: 15 goals conceded in 14 matches (1.07 per game), but only 4 clean sheets.
- CA Patronato failed to score in 6 of 15 recent matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCA Patronato not to scoreEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CA Patronato's home defense has been leaky, and CA Temperley's overall scoring threat makes a home clean sheet unlikely.
- CA Patronato home: 15 goals conceded in 14 matches (1.07 per game), with only 4 clean sheets.
- CA Temperley away: 8 goals scored in 14 matches (0.57 per game), but they have scored in 9 of 14 away matches.
- CA Temperley average 1.6 goals scored overall.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCA Temperley to scoreEstimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 77% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

CA Temperley has been moderately reliable when projected to win

CA Temperley has fulfilled 2 of 4 win projections, a 50% fulfilment rate. The two missed predictions both ended in draws, with no losses. The current 45% probability is within the historical range of 40-45%.

Recent evidence for CA Temperley4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

18 Jul·Primera Nacional