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Predictions graded

Deportivo Maipu0CA Patronato0

HT 0–0Sun 6 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges6–186%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 01:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Deportivo Maipu are strong favourites at home against a poor-travelling Patronato side, but the betting market has already priced in most of the value.

The only positive edge is on the first-half draw at 1.91 (model 55% vs implied 52.4%). Avoid the heavily juiced unders and the away win.

Context

Deportivo Maipu is 8th in Group 2 with 38 points and holds a promotion playoff spot. Patronato is 16th with 28 points.
Deportivo Maipu's home record is strong: 8 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in 13 matches, with 17 goals scored and 9 conceded. Patronato's away record is weak: 1 win, 7 draws, and 5 losses in 13 matches, with only 6 goals scored and 15 conceded. This contrast suggests Deportivo Maipu should control the match at home, but Patronato's many away draws show they can be hard to beat.
- Deportivo Maipu home record: 8W 2D 3L, 17 goals for, 9 against.
- Patronato away record: 1W 7D 5L, 6 goals for, 15 against.
Maipú sit eighth on 38 points inside the Reducido places, while Patronato are 16th on 28 points with nine rounds left.
Both teams have a concrete table objective at stake. Maipú are protecting a playoff position, and Patronato need points to stay clear of the bottom sides. The fixture's outcome directly affects those aims, but the report does not establish how that pressure will translate into on-pitch behaviour.
- The AFA fixture lists Deportivo Maipú versus Patronato in Zona B matchday 28.
- Local reporting places Maipú eighth on 38 points and Patronato 16th on 28 points.
- The reports identify nine matchdays remaining after this round.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 01:31 · Europe/BucharestAsociación del Fútbol Argentinowww.afa.com.ar · 23 Dec 2025Diario UNOwww.diariouno.com.ar · 5 Sep 2026UNO Entre Ríoswww.unoentrerios.com.ar · 3 Sep 2026
Patronato's away form has been poor all season, with only one win in 13 away matches.
In their last three away matches, Patronato lost 0-3 to Colon Santa Fe on 2026-08-15, drew 2-2 with Colegiales on 2026-08-09, and lost 0-1 to Midland on 2026-07-26. They have not won away since 2026-05-24 against Club Atlético Güemes. This poor away run makes it unlikely they will take the initiative at Deportivo Maipu.
- Lost 0-3 to Colon Santa Fe on 2026-08-15.
- Drew 2-2 with Colegiales on 2026-08-09.
- Lost 0-1 to Midland on 2026-07-26.
Mariano Echeverría is expected to use the same eleven that started the 1-0 defeat at Colegiales.
Keeping the prior XI would preserve Maipú's current defensive, midfield and attacking structure rather than introducing a rotation-driven change. The report is reported rather than confirmed, so the lineup could still shift before kickoff.
- The report identifies Maipú’s match with Patronato as Zona B matchday 28.
- It says Echeverría would back the same eleven used at Colegiales.
ReportedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 01:31 · Europe/BucharestDiario UNOwww.diariouno.com.ar · 5 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Deportivo Maipu

2.00fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 50%

0.0ppshort

Maipu's strong home record (8W 2D 3L) and Patronato's away struggles (1W 7D 5L) support the hosts, but the odds are fair.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Deportivo Maipu or Draw

1.25fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 80%

−2.0ppshort

Maipu's home strength and Patronato's away weakness make the double chance highly likely, but the price is short.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.48fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low-scoring home/away splits and recent H2H meetings have been tight, supporting under 2.5 goals.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.62fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Patronato's away scoring struggles and Maipu's solid home defense make a clean sheet for at least one side likely.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.22fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages and a history of tight first halves in H2H.

Total Goals AwaywonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.18fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Patronato's away scoring is very low, and Maipu's home defense is solid, making under 1.5 away goals likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Deportivo Maipu's strong home form and Patronato's poor away record give the hosts a clear structural edge.
- Deportivo Maipu home record: 8W 2D 3L, 17 goals for, 9 against in 13 home matches
- CA Patronato away record: 1W 7D 5L, 6 goals for, 15 against in 13 away matches
- Deportivo Maipu last 5 home matches: 3W 1D 1L
- CA Patronato last 5 away matches: 0W 3D 2L
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDeportivo MaipuEstimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Maipu's strong home form with Patronato's poor away results makes the double chance highly likely.
- Deportivo Maipu home record: 8W 2D 3L
- CA Patronato away record: 1W 7D 5L
- H2H last 5: Deportivo Maipu 1W 2D 2L (as home team 1W 1D 0L)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDeportivo Maipu or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to be level at half-time, and H2H meetings have often been drawn at the break.
- Deportivo Maipu first half record: 13 leading, 20 trailing in 15 matches (draws common)
- CA Patronato first half record: 47 leading, 13 trailing in 15 matches
- H2H last 5 half-time results: 3 draws, 1 home lead, 1 away lead
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Patronato's high away draw rate and Maipu's occasional home draws make a full-time draw plausible, though not the most likely outcome.
- Deportivo Maipu home draws: 2 in 13
- CA Patronato away draws: 7 in 13
- H2H last 5: 2 draws
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/DrawEstimated chance22%

Goals5 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low-scoring home/away splits and recent H2H meetings have been tight, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Deportivo Maipu home matches average 2.0 total goals (17 for, 9 against in 13)
- CA Patronato away matches average 1.62 total goals (6 for, 15 against in 13)
- H2H last 5: 0, 1, 2, 4, 3 goals (average 2.0)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Patronato's away scoring struggles and Maipu's solid home defense make a clean sheet for at least one side likely.
- Deportivo Maipu home clean sheets: 6 in 13 home matches
- CA Patronato away failed to score: 8 in 13 away matches
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 2 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages and a history of tight first halves in H2H.
- Deportivo Maipu first half goals average: 0.3 per match
- CA Patronato first half goals average: 0.7 per match
- H2H last 5 first half goals: 0, 0, 0, 1, 1 (average 0.4)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves have produced more goals than first halves for both teams, but the combined average remains below 1.5, making this a speculative lean.
- Deportivo Maipu second half goals average: 0.8 per match (1.1 total - 0.3 first half)
- CA Patronato second half goals average: 0.4 per match (1.1 total - 0.7 first half)
- Combined second half average: 1.2 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Patronato's away scoring struggles and Maipu's solid home defense give the hosts a reasonable chance of a clean sheet.
- Deportivo Maipu home clean sheets: 6 in 13
- CA Patronato away failed to score: 8 in 13
- Patronato away goals per match: 0.46
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCA Patronato not to scoreEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Maipu's home scoring record and Patronato's poor away defensive record make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Deportivo Maipu home goals per match: 1.31
- CA Patronato away clean sheets: 2 in 13
- Patronato away goals conceded per match: 1.15
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostDeportivo Maipu to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Maipu's home scoring rate is moderate, and Patronato's away defense can be breached, but the over 1.5 home goals is not a strong lean.
- Deportivo Maipu home goals per match: 1.31
- Deportivo Maipu scored 2+ in 6 of 13 home matches
- CA Patronato away conceded 2+ in 5 of 13 away matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostDeportivo Maipu over 1.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Patronato's away scoring is very low, and Maipu's home defense is solid, making under 1.5 away goals likely.
- CA Patronato away goals per match: 0.46
- CA Patronato scored 0 or 1 in 12 of 13 away matches
- Deportivo Maipu home conceded 0 or 1 in 10 of 13 home matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonCA Patronato under 1.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Patronato's away record is poor and the odds do not compensate for their low win probability.

Prediction history

Deportivo Maipu has been highly reliable when projected under 2.5 goals

Deportivo Maipu has fulfilled 5 of 6 recent under 2.5 goals projections. The average estimated probability was 70.3%, with an expected 4.2 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment exceeded expectation. At home, all 4 such projections were fulfilled, while away only 1 of 2 was fulfilled.

Recent evidence for Deportivo Maipu6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Primera Nacional