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Predictions graded

Colon de Santa Fe3CA Patronato0

HT 1–0Sat 15 Aug 2026, 19:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–278%

Edges5–271%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 17:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Colón's strong home form and Patronato's poor away record point to a home win and under 2.5 goals, but the market has already priced these outcomes, leaving no value.

The only marginal edge is the home clean sheet at 1.85, but it's a thin play. Expect a tight, low-scoring match with Colón likely to edge it.

Context

Colón home clean sheet rate: 58% (7/12).
- Colón home goals conceded per match: 0.5.
- Patronato away fail-to-score rate: 58% (7/12).
- Patronato away goals scored per match: 0.5.
Patronato away record: 1W-7D-4L.
- Colón home record: 7W-4D-1L.
- Patronato's only away win came against a lower-ranked side.
Last meeting: Patronato 0-2 Colón (29 Mar 2026).
- Colón have won two of the last three H2H matches without conceding.
- Overall H2H: 3 Colón wins, 3 draws, 3 Patronato wins.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Colon de Santa Fe

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Colon's strong home record and Patronato's poor away form give the hosts an edge, but the odds already reflect this and offer no value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Colon de Santa Fe or Draw

1.11fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 90.1%

−5.1ppshort

Colon's near-flawless home record and Patronato's inability to win away make a home win or draw highly likely, but the odds are too short to provide value.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.45fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Colon's solid home defense and Patronato's weak away attack suggest at least one team will fail to score.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to be cautious early, with low first-half scoring averages.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Colon's strong home form and Patronato's poor away record give the hosts a clear edge, supported by the structural home/away signal.
- Colon home record: 7W-4D-1L, 17 goals for, 6 against in 12 home matches
- Patronato away record: 1W-7D-4L, 6 goals for, 12 against in 12 away matches
- Colon last 5 home matches: 3W-1D-1L, including 4-0 vs Central Norte and 3-0 vs Defensores De Belgrano
- Patronato last 5 away matches: 0W-3D-2L, scoring only 3 goals
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonColon de Santa FeEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Colon's near-flawless home record and Patronato's inability to win away make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Colon home record: 7W-4D-1L, only one home defeat all season
- Patronato away record: 1W-7D-4L, only one away win
- H2H last 5: Colon won 2, Patronato won 1, 2 draws
BetBugs · Double ChancewonColon de Santa Fe or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high draw rates at half-time, and the match is likely to be tight early.
- Colon home first-half results: 33% leading, 27% trailing, 40% drawing
- Patronato away first-half results: 47% leading, 7% trailing, 46% drawing
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A common pattern for Colon at home is a level first half followed by a second-half breakthrough.
- Colon home matches: 4 of 12 had draw at HT and win at FT
- Patronato away matches: 3 of 12 had draw at HT and loss at FT
- Colon often scores in second half at home
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/Colon de Santa FeEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low-scoring home/away splits, and recent matches show a trend toward few goals.
- Colon home matches average 1.92 total goals (17+6 in 12)
- Patronato away matches average 1.5 total goals (6+12 in 12)
- Colon last 5 home matches: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals
- Patronato last 5 away matches: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Colon's solid home defense and Patronato's weak away attack suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- Colon home clean sheets: 7 in 12 matches (58%)
- Patronato away failed to score: 7 in 12 matches (58%)
- Colon home goals conceded per match: 0.5
- Patronato away goals scored per match: 0.5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Colon's strong home defensive record and Patronato's away scoring struggles support a home clean sheet.
- Colon home clean sheets: 7 in 12 matches (58%)
- Patronato away failed to score: 7 in 12 matches (58%)
- Colon home goals conceded per match: 0.5
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCA Patronato not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be cautious early, with low first-half scoring averages.
- Colon home first-half goals: 0.6 per match, first-half goals conceded: 0.3
- Patronato away first-half goals: 0.7 per match, first-half goals conceded: 0.2
- Combined first-half average: 1.8 goals per match, but median likely lower
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open as Colon pushes for a win at home.
- Colon home second-half goals: 1.1 per match (total 1.4 - 0.6 first half)
- Patronato away second-half goals: 0.8 per match (total 1.5 - 0.7 first half)
- Combined second-half average: 1.9 goals per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance40%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given the expected low-scoring, tight match, corner count is likely to be moderate.
- No corner data available for either team in recent matches
- Primera Nacional average corners per match: approximately 8-10
- Low-scoring matches often have fewer corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 64.5% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Colon de Santa Fe has struggled to convert win projections

Colon de Santa Fe has fulfilled 1 of 5 win predictions. The average estimated probability was 49%, but only 20% of predictions matched. Notably, all four missed predictions ended in draws or losses, with no wins.

Recent evidence for Colon de Santa Fe5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Primera Nacional