Busan IPark2Gimhae0

HT 1–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 10:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges3–443%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Sep 2026, 23:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Busan IPark are strong favourites at home against struggling Gimhae, but the odds offer no value on the home win or double chance.

The only positive edge is Both Teams to Score (Yes) at 1.80, with a +4.4 point edge, though recent away scoring struggles for Gimhae temper confidence.

Context

Busan IPark sit 6th in K League 2 with 38 points, inside the playoff places.
They have lost three of their last five league games, most recently a 0-1 home loss to Ansan Greeners on 5 September. This poor run could affect their confidence and performance against Gimhae, despite facing the league's bottom side.
- Lost 0-1 at home to Ansan Greeners on 2026-09-05.
- Lost 1-2 away to Suwon City FC on 2026-08-30.
- Drew 1-1 away to Daegu FC on 2026-08-22.
Gimhae sit 17th in K League 2, in the relegation zone.
They have lost four of their last five league matches, including a 0-3 home loss to Yongin City on 30 August. Their away record is also poor, with six losses in 12 away games, which could make this match difficult for them.
- Lost 0-3 at home to Yongin City on 2026-08-30.
- Lost 0-2 away to Suwon City FC on 2026-08-22.
- Drew 2-2 at home to Jeonnam Dragons on 2026-09-05.
Busan IPark's home record is 6 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses in 12 matches.
Gimhae's away record is 2 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses in 12 matches. Busan IPark's stronger home form could give them an edge in this fixture.
- Busan IPark home record: 6W 3D 3L in 12 matches.
- Gimhae away record: 2W 4D 6L in 12 matches.
Gimhae's squad availability has improved before the away match at Busan IPark.
Son Hyun-jun confirmed that injured players have returned and that players with limited opportunities in the previous match performed well. This broadens the group available for selection and gives Gimhae more options to refresh the side during the game.
- Gimhae's 11 September official match preview quotes Son Hyun-jun saying that injured players had returned.
- The same preview says players who had limited opportunities in the previous match also showed good performances.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 23:51 · Europe/BucharestGimhae FC2008 official Busan preview via K Leaguewww.kleague.com · 11 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Busan IPark

1.57fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Busan IPark's home form is strong but the odds imply a higher probability than our model, so there is no value on the home win.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Busan IPark or Draw

1.18fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 84.8%

−4.8ppshort

Busan IPark's unbeaten home record supports a high probability, but the odds are too short to offer value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a tendency to score and concede in the first half, but the odds are too short.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Busan IPark's stronger home form and higher league position, combined with Gimhae's poor away record, make a home win the most likely outcome.
- Busan IPark home record: 6W 3D 3L, 19 goals for, 13 against in 12 home matches.
- Gimhae away record: 2W 4D 6L, 10 goals for, 19 against in 12 away matches.
- Busan IPark rank 6th with 38 points; Gimhae rank 17th with 13 points.
- Last H2H: Gimhae City 0-1 Busan I Park (May 2026).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBusan IParkEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Busan IPark's strong home unbeaten rate and Gimhae's struggles on the road support a high probability that the hosts avoid defeat.
- Busan IPark home record: 6W 3D 3L (75% unbeaten at home).
- Gimhae away record: 2W 4D 6L (50% lose rate away).
- Busan IPark have lost only 3 of 12 home matches this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBusan IPark or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently go into the break level, making a first-half draw a plausible outcome.
- Busan IPark led at half-time in 27% of recent matches, trailed in 20%, and drew in 53%.
- Gimhae led at half-time in 20% of recent matches, trailed in 27%, and drew in 53%.
- Both teams have a high rate of first-half draws.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A pattern of first-half draws followed by a home win is plausible given Busan's home strength and Gimhae's away weakness.
- Busan IPark have drawn at half-time in 53% of recent matches.
- Busan IPark have won 6 of 12 home matches this season.
- Gimhae have lost 6 of 12 away matches this season.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Busan IParkEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in relatively high-scoring matches recently, with combined averages above the 2.5 line.
- Busan IPark average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match in recent form.
- Gimhae average 1.1 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match in recent form.
- Combined average goals per match for both teams: 2.85.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly find the net and also concede, making both teams scoring a likely scenario.
- Busan IPark have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Gimhae have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Busan IPark have conceded in 11 of their last 15 matches; Gimhae have conceded in 13 of their last 15.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to score and concede in the first half, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Busan IPark average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Gimhae average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.4 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is common for both teams, with combined averages near the 1.5 line.
- Busan IPark average 0.8 second-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded (derived from totals).
- Gimhae average 0.4 second-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded (derived from totals).
- Combined second-half goal average: 1.45 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Busan IPark's defensive record suggests they are unlikely to keep a clean sheet against a Gimhae side that regularly scores.
- Busan IPark have kept a clean sheet in only 3 of their last 15 matches.
- Gimhae have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Busan IPark concede an average of 1.5 goals per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGimhae to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gimhae's poor defensive record and Busan's scoring ability make an away clean sheet very unlikely.
- Gimhae have kept a clean sheet in only 2 of their last 15 matches.
- Busan IPark have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Gimhae concede an average of 1.6 goals per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostBusan IPark to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Busan IPark rarely win without conceding, and Gimhae's scoring threat reduces the likelihood of a win to nil.
- Busan IPark have won without conceding in only 2 of their last 15 matches.
- Gimhae have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Busan IPark's clean sheet rate is low.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gimhae's inability to keep clean sheets and their poor away form make an away win to nil highly improbable.
- Gimhae have won without conceding in only 1 of their last 15 matches.
- Busan IPark have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Gimhae's away record is poor with only 2 wins in 12.
BetBugs · Away Win to NillostNoEstimated chance85%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 64% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Busan IPark has been unreliable when projected to win

Busan IPark has fulfilled 1 of 5 win predictions (20%). The expected fulfilment was 2.7, indicating underperformance. When they missed, they lost twice and drew twice, never winning.

Recent evidence for Busan IPark5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jul·K League 2