Ferro Carril Oeste not to score
Market 41.7% · BetBugs 45%
Almirante Brown's strong home defense gives them a good chance of keeping a clean sheet, though Ferro's away scoring threat reduces confidence.
Primera NacionalFull timeFeatured
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Expect a tight, low-scoring match between two defensively solid sides.
The only value edge is on Almirante Brown to keep a clean sheet at 2.40 (+3 points), while most other markets are efficiently priced or overvalued.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 1
Ferro Carril Oeste not to scoreMarket 41.7% · BetBugs 45%
Almirante Brown's strong home defense gives them a good chance of keeping a clean sheet, though Ferro's away scoring threat reduces confidence.
Other edges · 8
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 70% · Market 72.5%
Almirante Brown are unbeaten in 86% of home matches and the H2H has 3 draws in last 5, so the double chance is a safe play.
BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%
Ferro are unbeaten in 86% of away matches, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Odds imply 37% but our estimate is 38%, no edge and the market is efficient.
Almirante Brown has fulfilled 6 of 7 Under 2.5 goals predictions, a strong 86% success rate. The average estimated probability was 74%, with an expected 5.2 fulfilled predictions, so actual results exceeded expectation. The only miss came at home with an 80% probability, while all away predictions matched.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Almirante BrownPromotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs) | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 23-16 | 45 |
| 1 | Ferro Carril OestePromotion - Primera Nacional (Super final) | 28 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 34-25 | 54 |
