Primera NacionalFull time

Predictions graded

Quilmes AC1San Martin de San Juan0

HT 0–0Sat 12 Sept 2026, 20:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges7–188%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 05:26 · Europe/Bucharest

San Martin de San Juan are undervalued at 3.25 to win, with a model edge of 11 percentage points (42% vs 31% implied).

The match is likely to be low-scoring, but the under 2.5 goals and double chance markets offer no value. The best actionable bet is on San Martin to win outright.

Context

San Martin de San Juan is 7th in Group 2 with 41 points from 27 matches, holding a promotion playoff position.
They have won four of their last five, beating Midland 3-2 on 6 September, Atlanta 1-0 on 30 August, Nueva Chicago 1-0 on 26 August, and Gimnasia Y Tiro 3-1 on 22 August before drawing 0-0 at Racing Cordoba on 16 August. That run shows they can score and defend on the road, but the draw at Racing Cordoba shows they can also be held. Quilmes will need to disrupt their rhythm early.
- San Martin de San Juan beat Midland 3-2 on 6 September 2026.
- They won 1-0 at Atlanta on 30 August 2026.
- They beat Nueva Chicago 1-0 on 26 August 2026 and Gimnasia Y Tiro 3-1 on 22 August 2026.
- Their only recent slip was a 0-0 draw at Racing Cordoba on 16 August 2026.
Quilmes AC is 14th in Group 2 with 32 points from 28 matches, sitting mid-table.
They lost 0-1 at Nueva Chicago on 7 September, 0-1 at home to Temperley on 30 August, and 0-1 at Deportivo Maipu on 23 August. They have not scored in any of those three matches, which points to a current attacking problem. However, their home record is much better than their away form, with seven wins and only three losses at home this season, so this match may be different.
- Quilmes lost 0-1 at Nueva Chicago on 7 September 2026.
- They lost 0-1 at home to Temperley on 30 August 2026.
- They lost 0-1 at Deportivo Maipu on 23 August 2026.
- Quilmes have not scored in their last three matches.
Quilmes AC's overall record is 8 wins, 8 draws, and 12 losses, but their home and away splits differ sharply.
At home, Quilmes have won 7, drawn 4, and lost only 3, scoring 16 goals and conceding just 6. Away, they have won only 1, drawn 4, and lost 9, conceding 18 goals. This match is at home, so their defensive solidity could help them against San Martin's attack. However, their last home match was a 0-1 loss to Temperley, so that strength is not guaranteed right now.
- Quilmes' home record: 7 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses in 14 matches.
- They have scored 16 goals and conceded only 6 at home.
- Their away record: 1 win, 4 draws, 9 losses in 14 matches.
- They lost their most recent home match 0-1 to Temperley on 30 August 2026.
Quilmes enter this home match after a 1-0 away loss to Nueva Chicago on 7 September, their third consecutive defeat.
The result leaves Quilmes 14th in Zona B, seven points outside the playoff positions and five above relegation. The reduced margin increases the incentive to pursue a result at home, particularly if the match remains level late on.
- Perspectiva Sur reported that Quilmes lost 1-0 away to Nueva Chicago on 7 September.
- The report described it as Quilmes’ third consecutive defeat.
- It placed Quilmes 14th in Zona B, seven points outside the playoff positions and five above relegation.
ReportedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 05:24 · Europe/BucharestPerspectiva Sur: Quilmes’ loss at Nueva Chicagowww.perspectivasur.com · 7 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

Quilmes AC or Draw

1.29fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Quilmes' home defensive record supports the double chance, but the odds are too short relative to our estimate.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Quilmes AC or Draw

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 84.8%

0.0ppshort

Quilmes' tendency to be level or ahead at half-time supports the double chance, but the odds are not attractive.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.43fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low-scoring tendencies, especially Quilmes at home (1.14 goals/game), and the head-to-head history averages 1.6 total goals.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.62fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Quilmes' strong home defense (8 clean sheets in 14) and San Martin's occasional away scoring struggles make it likely at least one team fails to score.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages (Quilmes 0.3, San Martin 0.5), making a low-scoring first half likely.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.11fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 90.1%

0.0ppshort

The low first-half scoring rates for both teams make it unlikely that both teams will score in the first half.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Martin de San Juan's strong recent form and Quilmes AC's poor run, combined with the away side's solid away record, make them the more likely winner.
- San Martin de San Juan have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 8 goals and conceding 3.
- Quilmes AC have lost their last 3 matches, scoring 0 goals and conceding 3.
- San Martin de San Juan have won 4 of their last 5 away matches, while Quilmes AC have lost 3 of their last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSan Martin de San JuanEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Quilmes AC's strong home defensive record and San Martin de San Juan's inconsistent away form make the double chance a solid option.
- Quilmes AC have won 7 of 14 home matches this season, drawing 4 and losing 3.
- San Martin de San Juan have lost 6 of 14 away matches this season.
- Quilmes AC have kept 8 clean sheets in 14 home matches, conceding only 6 goals.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonQuilmes AC or DrawEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The low first-half scoring rates and Quilmes AC's tendency to be level at the break make a draw the most likely half-time result.
- Quilmes AC have been level at half-time in 60% of their matches.
- San Martin de San Juan have been level at half-time in 40% of their matches.
- Quilmes AC average 0.3 first-half goals, while San Martin de San Juan average 0.5.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Martin de San Juan's stronger recent second-half performances and Quilmes AC's second-half struggles give the away side a slight edge.
- San Martin de San Juan have won the second half in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Quilmes AC have lost the second half in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- San Martin de San Juan have scored 55% of their away goals in the second half.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostSan Martin de San JuanEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a San Martin de San Juan win is a plausible scenario given the teams' half-time and full-time patterns.
- Quilmes AC have been level at half-time in 60% of their matches.
- San Martin de San Juan have won 4 of their last 5 matches overall.
- San Martin de San Juan have won 4 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/San Martin de San JuanEstimated chance22%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Martin de San Juan's ability to lead at half-time and their strong overall form make winning both halves a low-probability but possible outcome.
- San Martin de San Juan have led at half-time in 47% of their matches.
- San Martin de San Juan have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Quilmes AC have trailed at half-time in 20% of their matches.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostSan Martin de San JuanEstimated chance18%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Quilmes AC's strong tendency to be level or ahead at half-time at home makes the double chance a safe option.
- Quilmes AC have been level at half-time in 60% of their matches.
- Quilmes AC have led at half-time in 20% of their matches.
- San Martin de San Juan have led at half-time in 47% of their matches, but Quilmes AC's home advantage may balance this.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonQuilmes AC or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low-scoring tendencies, especially Quilmes AC at home, and the head-to-head history suggests a tight, low-scoring affair.
- Quilmes AC have scored 16 goals in 14 home matches (1.14 per game) and conceded 6 (0.43 per game).
- San Martin de San Juan have scored 13 goals in 14 away matches (0.93 per game) and conceded 15 (1.07 per game).
- The last 5 meetings between these teams have averaged 1.6 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Quilmes AC's strong home defense and San Martin de San Juan's occasional away scoring struggles make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- Quilmes AC have kept 8 clean sheets in 14 home matches this season.
- San Martin de San Juan have failed to score in 5 of their 14 away matches.
- Quilmes AC have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches overall.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making a low-scoring first half likely.
- Quilmes AC average 0.3 first-half goals per match, while San Martin de San Juan average 0.5.
- Quilmes AC have been level at half-time in 60% of their matches.
- San Martin de San Juan have led at half-time in 47% of their matches, but their opponents have scored only 0.2 first-half goals per game.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, and the match may open up as it progresses.
- Quilmes AC have scored 60% of their home goals in the second half.
- San Martin de San Juan have scored 55% of their away goals in the second half.
- The last 5 meetings have seen 60% of goals scored after half-time.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The low first-half scoring rates for both teams make it unlikely that both teams will score in the first half.
- Quilmes AC average 0.3 first-half goals per match.
- San Martin de San Juan average 0.5 first-half goals per match.
- Quilmes AC have been level at half-time in 60% of their matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance70%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 78% leaves no cushion vs our 58% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

San Martin de San Juan has struggled to convert win projections

San Martin de San Juan has fulfilled 1 of 4 win predictions. The average estimated probability was 44.3%, but only one match ended in a win, with two losses and one draw among the misses. The current 42% probability sits within the historical range of 42-45%, but the team has not won away from home in this sample.

Recent evidence for San Martin de San Juan4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Primera Nacional