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Predictions graded

Liverpool0Fulham0

HT 0–0Sat 12 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–820%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 14–10On targetOn target 3–4CornersCorners 5–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 06:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Liverpool are likely to win or draw against a defensively fragile Fulham, but the market has already priced in this outcome, leaving no value in the main markets.

The short turnaround from Atlético Madrid adds rotation risk for Liverpool, while Fulham's defensive issues make goals likely but not a profitable bet at current odds. Best approach: avoid the obvious Liverpool and over 2.5 goals markets due to negative edges.

Context

Fulham are 19th in the Premier League with 0 points from 3 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 7.
They have lost to Crystal Palace, Sunderland, and Chelsea, and their away record is one loss with no goals scored. Liverpool are 6th with 5 points and unbeaten, so Fulham need a result to avoid falling further behind.
- Fulham are 19th with 0 points from 3 matches.
- They lost 2-3 to Crystal Palace on 2026-09-05, 0-1 to Sunderland on 2026-08-30, and 2-3 to Chelsea on 2026-08-24.
- Their away record is 0 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, with 0 goals scored and 1 conceded.
Liverpool are 6th with 5 points from 3 matches, with one win and two draws.
Their home record is 0 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, with 2 goals scored and 2 conceded. They drew 2-2 with Nottingham Forest at home on 2026-08-29, so Fulham may see an opportunity to get a result.
- Liverpool's home record is 0 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses.
- They drew 2-2 with Nottingham Forest at home on 2026-08-29.
- Liverpool are unbeaten in the league with 1 win and 2 draws.
Liverpool host Atlético Madrid on Wednesday before Fulham's visit on Saturday, leaving a three-day turnaround.
The compressed schedule may force rotation or affect recovery for key players. The claim does not specify which individuals are most at risk, so the selection impact remains uncertain.
- Liverpool's official site says Atlético Madrid visit Anfield on Wednesday 9 September.
- Liverpool's official site says the Atlético match begins three successive home matches across three competitions within a week.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 06:21 · Europe/BucharestLiverpool FC: Milos Kerkez on the upcoming schedulewww.liverpoolfc.com · 6 Sep 2026
The last five head-to-head matches include two Liverpool wins, two draws, and one Fulham win.
Liverpool won 2-0 at home on 2026-04-11, and Fulham's only win in this period came at home in April 2025. Fulham have not won at Anfield in these recent meetings, which may affect their confidence.
- Liverpool beat Fulham 2-0 at home on 2026-04-11.
- The last five meetings: Liverpool 2 wins, Fulham 1 win, 2 draws.
- Fulham's only win was 3-2 at home on 2025-04-06.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Liverpool

1.43fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 70%

0.0ppshort

Liverpool's superior form and home advantage, combined with Fulham's poor start and defensive issues, make them clear favourites.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Liverpool or Draw

1.14fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 88%

−8.0ppshort

Given Fulham's poor away form and Liverpool's home resilience, a Liverpool win or draw is highly likely.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.40fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games, and Fulham's defensive vulnerabilities increase the likelihood of multiple goals.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.60fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Fulham have shown they can score, and Liverpool's defence has not been watertight, making both teams scoring plausible.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.20fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score in the first half, and the match is likely to start at a high tempo.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Liverpool's superior form and home advantage, combined with Fulham's poor start and defensive issues, make them clear favourites.
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 3 Premier League matches (W1 D2), scoring 6 goals.
- Fulham have lost all 3 league games this season, conceding 7 goals.
- Liverpool won the most recent H2H 2-0 at Anfield in April 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLiverpoolEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Fulham's poor away form and Liverpool's home resilience, a Liverpool win or draw is highly likely.
- Liverpool have not lost at home in the league this season (D1).
- Fulham have lost all 3 league matches, including their only away game.
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLiverpool or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Liverpool's home advantage and Fulham's slow starts could see the hosts ahead at the break.
- Liverpool led at half-time in 33% of recent matches.
- Fulham trailed at half-time in 27% of recent matches.
- Liverpool scored first-half goals in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostLiverpoolEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A Liverpool win with a half-time lead is plausible given Fulham's poor form and Liverpool's home strength.
- Liverpool have won 1 of their last 3 league games, all after leading at half-time.
- Fulham have lost all 3 league games, with 2 losses after trailing at half-time.
- Liverpool won the last H2H at Anfield 2-0.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostLiverpool/LiverpoolEstimated chance35%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games, and Fulham's defensive vulnerabilities increase the likelihood of multiple goals.
- Liverpool's league matches average 3.3 total goals (10 goals in 3 games).
- Fulham's league matches average 3.7 total goals (11 goals in 3 games).
- Both teams have scored in 4 of Liverpool's last 5 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fulham have shown they can score, and Liverpool's defence has not been watertight, making both teams scoring plausible.
- Fulham have scored in 2 of their 3 league games despite losing all.
- Liverpool have conceded in 2 of their 3 league games.
- Both teams scored in the last two H2H meetings at Anfield.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and the match is likely to start at a high tempo.
- Liverpool average 0.7 first-half goals per game in recent form.
- Fulham average 0.7 first-half goals per game in recent form.
- In 4 of Liverpool's last 5 competitive matches, there was at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
If the game opens up in the second half, there is a reasonable chance of at least two goals after the break.
- Liverpool's second-half goal difference is positive in recent matches.
- Fulham have conceded late goals in their last two league games.
- The average total goals in matches involving these teams is above 3.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, and the attacking nature of the game should produce many set-piece opportunities.
- Liverpool average 6.1 corners per game in recent form.
- Fulham average 6.2 corners per game in recent form.
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams is above 12.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the match and Fulham's defensive struggles could lead to multiple bookings.
- Liverpool average 2 yellow cards per game in recent form.
- Fulham average 1.6 yellow cards per game in recent form.
- The last H2H meeting produced 3 yellow cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 70% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Liverpool has struggled to convert win projections recently

Liverpool has fulfilled 1 of 5 recent win projections, a 20% success rate. The expected fulfilment based on average estimated probability was 2.6, indicating underperformance. Missed projections included two draws and two losses, with the only success coming at home against Crystal Palace.

Recent evidence for Liverpool5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 May·Premier League