Hoffenheim2Stuttgart1

HT 1–0Sat 12 Sept 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges0–0–1--

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 20–16On targetOn target 8–5CornersCorners 5–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Sep 2026, 23:11 · Europe/Bucharest

The Over 2.5 goals market offers the strongest value, with a 65% estimated probability against a 50% implied probability for Over 3 at odds of 2.00.

Stuttgart's midweek Champions League match is a key risk factor, but both teams' scoring trends and recent 3-3 head-to-head support a high-scoring game.

Context

Hoffenheim are 16th in the Bundesliga with 0 points after two matches, currently in the relegation playoff position.
They lost 3-2 at home to Borussia Dortmund on 5 September and 3-2 away to 1. FC Köln on 29 August. Both defeats came after leading at half-time, which suggests they struggle to protect leads. Stuttgart have also conceded goals, but Hoffenheim's need for points is more urgent.
- Hoffenheim lost 3-2 at home to Borussia Dortmund on 5 September 2026.
- Hoffenheim lost 3-2 away to 1. FC Köln on 29 August 2026.
- Hoffenheim are 16th in the Bundesliga with 0 points from 2 matches.
Stuttgart are 9th in the Bundesliga with 3 points from 2 matches, having won at home and lost away.
They lost 5-1 away to Bayern München on 28 August, conceding five goals. Their away record shows 1 goal scored and 5 conceded in one match. Hoffenheim have scored in both league games, so Stuttgart's away defence could be tested again.
- Stuttgart lost 5-1 away to Bayern München on 28 August 2026.
- Stuttgart's away record this season: 1 goal scored, 5 conceded in 1 match.
Stuttgart attacker D. Undav has started 3 of the last 5 available lineups and trained without problems despite Achilles discomfort.
Undav is confirmed available for the midweek Champions League match, so his minutes against Viking Stavanger become the key workload signal for Hoffenheim. If he plays a full match, Stuttgart may manage his involvement three days later, but no rotation decision is established yet.
- Sebastian Hoeneß said Deniz Undav had trained without problems despite Achilles discomfort.
- Hoeneß confirmed that Undav would be involved against Viking Stavanger on 9 September.
- D. Undav started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Sep 2026, 23:09 · Europe/BucharestSWR Sportschau: Hoeneß on Undav before Vikingwww.sportschau.de · 8 Sep 2026
Hoffenheim and Stuttgart have a recent history of close matches.
The last four league meetings ended in draws: 3-3 on 2 May 2026, 0-0 on 20 December 2025, 1-1 on 23 February 2025, and 1-1 on 6 October 2024. This pattern suggests neither side has a clear edge in this fixture.
- Hoffenheim 3-3 Stuttgart on 2 May 2026.
- Stuttgart 0-0 Hoffenheim on 20 December 2025.
- Hoffenheim 1-1 Stuttgart on 23 February 2025.
- Stuttgart 1-1 Hoffenheim on 6 October 2024.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The strong draw trend in recent H2H meetings and both teams' inconsistent starts make a draw a plausible outcome.
- Last 4 H2H meetings ended in draws.
- Hoffenheim have 0 points from 2 league matches this season.
- Stuttgart have 3 points from 2 league matches this season.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hoffenheim's home edge and Stuttgart's poor away form make a home win or draw more likely than an away win.
- Hoffenheim are winless in 2 league matches but have home advantage.
- Stuttgart lost their only away league match 1-5.
- Last 4 H2H meetings ended in draws.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHoffenheim or DrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often lead at half-time, but their similar first-half scoring rates make a level first half a reasonable possibility.
- Hoffenheim led at half-time in 67% of recent matches.
- Stuttgart led at half-time in 60% of recent matches.
- Both teams have similar first-half scoring rates.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The draw trend in H2H meetings and both teams' moderate draw rates support a draw at both half-time and full-time.
- Last 4 H2H meetings ended in draws.
- Hoffenheim drew 2 of last 15 matches.
- Stuttgart drew 3 of last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show high scoring averages and the recent H2H produced six goals, supporting a high-scoring match.
- Hoffenheim average 2.0 goals for and 1.7 goals against over last 15 matches.
- Stuttgart average 3.0 goals for and 1.7 goals against over last 15 matches.
- Last H2H meeting ended 3-3 on 2026-05-02.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently find the net and their recent head-to-head meetings frequently see both sides scoring.
- Hoffenheim scored in 13 of last 15 matches.
- Stuttgart scored in 13 of last 15 matches.
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score early, with a combined first-half average of 2.0 goals, supporting over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Hoffenheim average 1.3 first-half goals for and 0.7 against.
- Stuttgart average 1.4 first-half goals for and 0.6 against.
- Combined first-half goal average is 2.0.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score more in the second half, with a combined average of 2.2 goals, making over 1.5 second-half goals likely.
- Hoffenheim average 0.7 second-half goals for and 1.0 against.
- Stuttgart average 1.6 second-half goals for and 1.1 against.
- Combined second-half goal average is 2.2.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, with a combined average of 14.3, making over 9.5 corners likely.
- Hoffenheim average 7.7 corners per match.
- Stuttgart average 6.6 corners per match.
- Combined average corners is 14.3.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams take many shots, with a combined average of 32.2, supporting over 25.5 total shots.
- Hoffenheim average 16.6 shots per match.
- Stuttgart average 15.6 shots per match.
- Combined average shots is 32.2.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 25.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 5 shots on target each, with a combined average of 11.8, making over 9.5 shots on target likely.
- Hoffenheim average 5.7 shots on target per match.
- Stuttgart average 6.1 shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target is 11.8.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average of 4.5 yellow cards per match supports over 3.5 total cards.
- Hoffenheim average 2.9 yellow cards per match.
- Stuttgart average 1.6 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards is 4.5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 29.4% leaves no cushion vs our 65% estimate for Over 3; the 4-goal line is too high for a reliable edge.

Prediction history

Hoffenheim has been highly reliable when projected to see over 2.5 goals

Hoffenheim's over 2.5 goals projections have been fulfilled in 5 of 6 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 69.8%, with an expected 4.2 fulfilled predictions, indicating performance above expectation. The current probability of 65% sits within the historical range of 62% to 80%.

Recent evidence for Hoffenheim6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

16 May·Bundesliga