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Hoffenheim

Hoffenheim - Stuttgart

Stuttgart
🇩🇪 BundesligaFinished
Saturday, May 2, 2026 at 13:30

Quick Take

Hoffenheim's full-strength Champions League chase on home soil faces Stuttgart's rotation gambit following an extra-time DFB-Pokal semi-final—expect a high-scoring, open match with Hoffenheim favored (1X at good value) and Corners Over 10.5 as the clearest structural edge given both teams' 13.8 combined corner average and Hoffenheim's aggressive tactical intent.

Corners Over/UnderOver 10.563%+9.0pp

Context Signals

Betting Edges

Model probabilities

Markets to Avoid

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 @ 1.36:Implied 73.5% significantly exceeds model estimate of 68%; bookmakers have overpriced this selection relative to prediction, creating negative edge.
Both Teams to Score Yes @ 1.35:Implied 74.1% exceeds model estimate of 70% with no margin for vig; HIGH confidence prediction does not translate to betting edge at these odds.
1st Half Goals Over/Under Over 1.5 @ 1.95:Model 55% vs. implied 51.3% yields only +3.7pt edge—below 5pt threshold for MEDIUM confidence; insufficient value given execution risk in opening 45 minutes.
**Hoffenheim's Champions League Urgency vs. Stuttgart's Cup Final Distraction** Hoffenheim and Stuttgart meet on May 2 with starkly divergent motivations. Hoffenheim (42 points, 3rd place) have pure Bundesliga focus in their final Champions League push, while Stuttgart (56 points) are managing a treacherous fixture congestion crisis: an emotionally draining DFB-Pokal semi-final extra-time win against Freiburg on April 24 (Tiago Tomás's 109th-minute winner) followed by the cup final against Bayern on May 23.

Recent Form

Hoffenheim

Hoffenheim

W2-1Hamburger SVApr 25BL
W2-1Borussia DortmundApr 18BL
D2-2FC AugsburgApr 10BL
L1-2FSV Mainz 05Apr 4BL
L3-5SV ElversbergMar 26FRI
L0-5RB LeipzigMar 20BL
D1-1VfL WolfsburgMar 14BL
W4-21. FC HeidenheimMar 7BL
L0-1FC St. PauliFeb 28BL
D2-21. FC KölnFeb 21BL
Stuttgart

Stuttgart

D1-1Werder BremenApr 26BL
L2-4Bayern MünchenApr 19BL
W4-0Hamburger SVApr 12BL
L0-2Borussia DortmundApr 4BL
W5-2FC AugsburgMar 22BL
L0-2FC PortoMar 19UEF
W1-0RB LeipzigMar 15BL
L1-2FC PortoMar 12UEF
D2-2FSV Mainz 05Mar 7BL
W4-0VfL WolfsburgMar 1BL

League Table

Bundesliga 2025/2026
#TeamPWDLGF-GAPts
5
HoffenheimHoffenheim
UEFA Europa League
31176861-4557
4
StuttgartStuttgart
Champions League
31176863-4357

Head-to-Head

2W · 3D · 0W
D0-0VfB Stuttgartv1899 HoffenheimDec 20, 2025BL
D1-11899 HoffenheimvVfB StuttgartFeb 23, 2025BL
D1-1VfB Stuttgartv1899 HoffenheimOct 6, 2024BL
W0-31899 HoffenheimvVfB StuttgartMar 16, 2024BL
W2-3VfB Stuttgartv1899 HoffenheimOct 28, 2023BL
Hoffenheim unbeaten in 5 meetingsHoffenheim: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg