Auxerre1Nice0

HT 0–0Sat 12 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions3–827%

Edges0–50%

PossPossession 32%–68%ShotsShots 11–12On targetOn target 7–4CornersCorners 3–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 07:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Auxerre's leaky defense (11 goals conceded in 3 games) makes over 2.5 goals the top value bet at 1.91 odds, with a +6 point edge (58% model vs 52.4% implied).

Nice are slight favorites in the match winner market but offer only a marginal +2 point edge at 2.50, while BTTS and first-half goals markets are overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

Auxerre are 18th in Ligue 1 with 0 points from 3 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 11.
Their recent league form shows three straight losses: 1-3 at Lyon on 4 September, 1-3 at home to Angers on 29 August, and 2-5 at Lens on 22 August. The defence has allowed at least three goals in each of those matches, and the team has not kept a clean sheet in the league this season. Nice have also struggled to score, with only one goal in three league games, so Auxerre's defensive weakness may be less exposed than the raw numbers suggest.
- Auxerre lost 1-3 at Lyon on 4 September 2026.
- Auxerre lost 1-3 at home to Angers on 29 August 2026.
- Auxerre lost 2-5 at Lens on 22 August 2026.
Nice are 15th in Ligue 1 with 2 points from 3 matches, scoring 1 and conceding 4.
Nice drew 1-1 at home to Le Mans on 5 September, lost 0-3 at Paris FC on 30 August, and drew 0-0 at home to Lorient on 22 August. They have failed to score in two of those three matches and have only one away match this season, which they lost without scoring. Auxerre have conceded 11 goals in three games, so Nice may find more space than usual, but their own lack of goals remains a concern.
- Nice drew 1-1 at home to Le Mans on 5 September 2026.
- Nice lost 0-3 at Paris FC on 30 August 2026.
- Nice drew 0-0 at home to Lorient on 22 August 2026.
The last five meetings between Auxerre and Nice include two Auxerre wins, two draws, and one Nice win.
Auxerre won 2-1 at home on 10 May 2026, while Nice won 3-1 at home on 23 August 2025. The other three matches were draws or a home win for Auxerre. This pattern suggests home advantage has been important in this fixture, but the sample is small and both teams have changed since those matches.
- Auxerre beat Nice 2-1 at home on 10 May 2026.
- Nice beat Auxerre 3-1 at home on 23 August 2025.
- The teams drew 1-1 at Nice on 14 March 2025.
Auxerre midfielder A. Dioussé is out with an ACL rupture sustained in the Werder Bremen friendly.
His absence removes a central-midfield option from Auxerre's selection group for the visit of Nice. The long-term injury narrows Auxerre's midfield cover and limits in-match options to alter midfield balance.
- Auxerre coach Will Still said before the Lens opener that Dioussé had suffered an anterior cruciate ligament rupture in the Werder Bremen friendly.
- L'Équipe reported that the injury would keep him out for at least six months.
ReportedSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 07:30 · Europe/BucharestL'Équipe: Auxerre without Assane Dioussé at Lenswww.lequipe.fr · 20 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Nice

1.47fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 68%

0.0ppshort

Auxerre's poor start and Nice's resilience make a Nice win or draw likely, and the odds are fair but offer no cushion.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored and conceded in most of their recent matches, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.35fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

First-half stats suggest a moderate chance of a goal, but the odds imply a much higher probability than our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Auxerre's poor form and defensive frailty give Nice a slight edge, but Nice's away struggles keep confidence medium.
- Auxerre have lost all 3 Ligue 1 matches this season, conceding 11 goals.
- Nice are unbeaten at home this season (2 draws) but lost their only away match 0-3.
- Auxerre's last 5 home matches: 1W, 1D, 3L, with 1.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game.
- Nice's last 5 away matches: 1W, 1D, 3L, with 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNiceEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Auxerre's poor start and Nice's resilience make a Nice win or draw likely.
- Auxerre have lost all 3 league games this season.
- Nice have drawn 2 of 3 league games.
- Auxerre's home record this season: 0W, 0D, 1L.
- Nice's away record this season: 0W, 0D, 1L.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or NiceEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often draw at half-time, making a first-half draw plausible.
- Auxerre's half-time results: 40% leading, 20% trailing, 40% drawing.
- Nice's half-time results: 13% leading, 20% trailing, 67% drawing.
- Auxerre's first-half goal difference: +0.4 per game.
- Nice's first-half goal difference: +0.1 per game.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Nice win is a possible scenario given Auxerre's struggles.
- Auxerre have not won any match this season.
- Nice have drawn 2 of 3 matches.
- Auxerre's half-time draws: 40%.
- Nice's half-time draws: 67%.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/NiceEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Auxerre's leaky defense and high-scoring games suggest over 2.5 goals.
- Auxerre's league matches average 5.0 total goals (15 goals in 3 games).
- Nice's league matches average 1.67 total goals (5 goals in 3 games).
- Auxerre have conceded 11 goals in 3 league games.
- Last H2H: Auxerre 2-1 Nice.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score and concede, making BTTS likely.
- Auxerre have scored in all 3 league games (4 goals total).
- Nice have scored in 2 of 3 league games.
- Auxerre have conceded in all 3 league games.
- Nice have conceded in 2 of 3 league games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Auxerre's first-half goals: 0.9 per game; first-half conceded: 0.5 per game.
- Nice's first-half goals: 0.5 per game; first-half conceded: 0.4 per game.
- Auxerre have led at half-time in 40% of recent matches.
- Nice have trailed at half-time in 20% of recent matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is possible but less certain, hence low confidence.
- Auxerre's second-half goals average 0.8 per game (total 1.7 - 0.9 first half).
- Nice's second-half goals average 0.7 per game (total 1.2 - 0.5 first half).
- Auxerre's second-half conceded average 1.2 per game (total 1.7 - 0.5 first half).
- Nice's second-half conceded average 0.5 per game (total 0.9 - 0.4 first half).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, making over 9.5 possible.
- Auxerre average 4.9 corners per game, concede 6.1 corners per game.
- Nice average 5.9 corners per game, concede 4.7 corners per game.
- Combined average corners: 10.8 per game.
- Last H2H: Auxerre 10 corners, Nice 1 corner.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shot on target numbers are close to the line, making over 7.5 a coin flip.
- Auxerre average 4.3 shots on target per game, concede 5.1.
- Nice average 3.6 shots on target per game, concede 3.3.
- Combined average shots on target: 7.9 per game.
- Auxerre's recent matches have seen 7+ shots on target in 4 of last 5.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Card counts are near the line, making over 3.5 a toss-up.
- Auxerre average 1.8 yellow cards per game, opponents average 1.9.
- Nice average 1.5 yellow cards per game, opponents average 1.7.
- Combined average cards: 3.3 per game.
- Auxerre's recent matches have seen 4+ cards in 3 of last 5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%