Marseille vs Nice: result, stats and head-to-head

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Marseille's dominant home record (67% win rate) against Nice's dire away form (67% loss rate), combined with strong H2H home advantage and Marseille's Champions League/European qualification motivation, makes a home win the most likely outcome despite both sides' coaching upheavals.
- Marseille home record: 10W-3D-2L, 37GF/18GA in 15 Ligue 1 home games (2025-26 season)
- Nice away record: 3W-2D-10L, 16GF/30GA in 15 Ligue 1 away games (2025-26 season)
- H2H: Home team won 4 of last 5 meetings (2023-2025); Marseille won 2-0 at home Sep 2024
- Marseille avg 14.7 shots vs Nice avg 9.3 shots per game (last 10 matches)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMarseilleEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Marseille's rock-solid home record (87% avoid defeat) and Nice's abysmal away win rate (20%), amplified by Marseille's European qualification stakes at the Velodrome, makes an away win highly unlikely.
- Marseille lost only 2 of 15 home league games (13% home loss rate, 2025-26)
- Nice won only 3 of 15 away league games (20% away win rate, 2025-26)
- Marseille fighting for European qualification (6th, 52pts, 1pt off Europa spot)
- H2H: Away team won only 1 of last 5 meetings (Marseille 5-1 at Nice, Nov 2025)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMarseille or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Marseille's notably low first-half scoring rate (0.4/game) despite strong overall output suggests they tend to break through in the second half, and H2H data supports level first halves in this fixture.
- Marseille score only 0.4 first-half goals per game (last 10 matches); led at HT in 40% of recent games
- Nice trail at HT in 60% of recent matches but Marseille's first-half output is also low
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings were level at half-time (2-0 scorelines with second-half goals common)
- Marseille's 5 recent home results show slow starts: 0-0 HT vs Auxerre, 1-0 HT vs Metz, 1-0 HT vs Lille
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Marseille's home goal difference of +1.27/game combined with Nice's away deficit of -0.93/game and Nice's defensive personnel problems suggest Marseille winning by 2+ is plausible but far from certain given Marseille's own inconsistent recent form (LWLLW).
- Marseille home GD: +19 in 15 games (+1.27 per game, 2025-26 season)
- Nice away GD: -14 in 15 games (-0.93 per game, 2025-26 season)
- Marseille won last home H2H 2-0 (Sep 2024); also drew 2-2 at home (Apr 2024)
- Nice defensive crisis with multiple absences confirmed/questionable
BetBugs · Asian HandicaplostMarseille -1Estimated chance45%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Marseille's prolific home attack (2.47 GF/game), Nice's leaky away defense (2.0 GA/game), and Nice's potential defensive crisis with Bombito out plus Dante/Abdelmonem questionable strongly supports over 2.5 goals.
- Marseille home: 37GF + 18GA = 55 total goals in 15 home games = 3.67 goals/game (2025-26)
- Nice away: 16GF + 30GA = 46 total goals in 15 away games = 3.07 goals/game (2025-26)
- H2H last 5: goal totals of 6, 2, 2, 4, 1 — average 3.0 per meeting
- Nice concede 2.0 goals/game away; Marseille score 2.47 goals/game at home (2025-26 season)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Marseille's defensive absences (Aguerd, Kondogbia) and tendency to concede at home (1.2 GA/game) combined with Nice's relegation desperation creating attacking necessity makes BTTS likely, though Nice's low away output (1.07 GF/game) adds uncertainty.
- Marseille concede 1.2 goals/game at home (18 GA in 15 home games, 2025-26 season)
- Marseille's recent form: conceded in 4 of last 5 matches (last 10 match sample)
- Nice scored in 4 of last 5 league away games (season 2025-26 H2H data context)
- Marseille missing key defender Aguerd and midfielder Kondogbia (confirmed injuries)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Marseille's elite home scoring rate (2.47/game) against Nice's worst-in-class away defensive record, compounded by Nice's defensive injury crisis under a brand-new coach, creates a very strong probability of Marseille scoring at least twice.
- Marseille score 2.47 goals/game at home (37 in 15 home games, 2025-26 season)
- Nice concede 2.0 goals/game away (30 in 15 away games, 2025-26 season)
- Nice have potential defensive crisis: Bombito out, Dante/Abdelmonem/Ndayishimiye questionable
- Marseille averaged 14.7 shots total with 4.9 on target per game (last 10 matches)
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostMarseille over 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nice's away clean sheet rate is approximately 13% this season, and with confirmed and potential defensive absences against Marseille's potent home attack, the probability of Nice keeping a clean sheet is minimal.
- Nice concede 2.0 goals/game away (30 GA in 15 away matches, 2025-26)
- Nice kept just 2 clean sheets in 15 away games this season (13% rate)
- Marseille score 2.47 goals/game at home (37 GF in 15 home matches, 2025-26)
- Nice defensive personnel crisis: Bombito confirmed out; Dante, Abdelmonem both questionable
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMarseille to scoreEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show low first-half goal output in recent form — Marseille at 0.4 GF and Nice at 0.2 GF in the first half — suggesting a cagey opening period is more likely than an explosive start.
- Marseille average only 0.4 first-half goals scored (last 10 matches)
- Marseille concede 0.6 first-half goals on average (last 10 matches)
- Nice average 0.2 first-half goals scored (last 10 matches)
- Combined first-half expected goals: ~1.0 (0.4 + 0.2 + defensive concessions)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The raw combined corner averages (~11.2) and Marseille's territorial dominance at home (53.3% possession, 14.7 shots/game) should generate sufficient corner volume to clear 9.5, though Nice's low-possession away style may moderate their own corner tally.
- Marseille average 5.6 corners per game (last 10 matches); opponents average ~3.1 corners against them
- Nice average 5.6 corners per game (last 10 matches); opponents average ~3.6 corners against them
- Marseille dominate possession (53.3%) which typically generates more corner opportunities at home
- Combined corner average: ~11.2 per game based on both teams' recent averages
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined yellow card averages (4.5/game) already clear the 3.5 threshold, and the derby atmosphere at Velodrome with relegation-desperate Nice (who have averaged 0.5 reds recently) should amplify foul intensity and card frequency.
- Marseille average 2.7 yellow cards per game (last 10 matches)
- Nice average 1.8 yellow cards per game (last 10 matches); 0.5 red cards per game
- Derby de la Mediterranee atmosphere increases discipline risk (intel report confirmed)
- Combined yellow card average: 4.5 per game (plus opponent cards generated)
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance62%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Marseille1Nice1

Quick Take

Context

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Result2 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Marseille

Nice

Squad & Injuries

Marseille

Nice

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Marseille Conference League Qualification	30	16	4	10	58-40	52	LWLLW
15	Nice	30	7	8	15	34-56	29	DDLLW