EredivisieFull time

Predictions graded

AZ Alkmaar1Willem II1

HT 1–0Fri 11 Sept 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–833%

Edges2–529%

PossPossession 67%–33%ShotsShots 22–8On targetOn target 5–2CornersCorners 11–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 09:06 · Europe/Bucharest

AZ Alkmaar are overwhelming favourites to beat struggling Willem II, but the odds offer no value on the home win or over 2.5 goals.

The only slight edges are on Both Teams to Score (Yes) and 2nd Half Over 1.5 Goals, though both are marginal and not strongly recommended.

Context

AZ Alkmaar sit second in the Eredivisie with 12 points from four matches, one point behind PSV Eindhoven.
Their perfect start includes a 5-2 home win over GO Ahead Eagles on 29 August and a 2-0 away win at Fortuna Sittard on 22 August. This run shows they are creating chances and finishing well, averaging 2.4 goals per match. Willem II have conceded 13 goals in four games, so AZ's attack is likely to find space.
- AZ Alkmaar have won 4 of 4 Eredivisie matches this season.
- They beat GO Ahead Eagles 5-2 at home on 29 August 2026.
- They beat Fortuna Sittard 2-0 away on 22 August 2026.
Willem II are 17th in the Eredivisie with 1 point, level with Utrecht but behind on goal difference.
They lost 3-0 at home to Excelsior on 5 September and 4-1 at home to NEC Nijmegen on 15 August. Their defence has been breached repeatedly, and they have scored only 4 goals. Facing an AZ side that has scored 13 goals, Willem II's back line will be under immediate pressure.
- Willem II have 1 point from 4 Eredivisie matches.
- They lost 3-0 at home to Excelsior on 5 September 2026.
- They lost 4-1 at home to NEC Nijmegen on 15 August 2026.
AZ Alkmaar's style is built on keeping the ball and creating many chances.
In their recent 2-0 win at Fortuna Sittard, AZ had 72% possession and 26 shots. Willem II had only 31% possession in their 4-1 loss at GO Ahead Eagles. This gap in control means AZ should dictate the tempo and limit Willem II's opportunities.
- AZ Alkmaar average 57.4% possession and 19.4 shots per match.
- Willem II average 42.2% possession and 13.2 shots per match.
- AZ had 72% possession and 26 shots against Fortuna Sittard on 22 August 2026.
AZ right-back Denso Kasius was ruled out for the Heerenveen trip, and his availability for this match remains unresolved.
If Kasius is still unavailable, AZ must change its right-back selection and the defensive balance on that flank. The club has not yet confirmed a replacement, so the exact adjustment is uncertain.
- On 4 September, AZ head coach Leeroy Echteld said Denso Kasius was definitely unavailable for the 6 September away match at sc Heerenveen.
- The club was still awaiting a fitness decision on Kees Smit, while making Kasius's absence explicit.
To watchSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 09:04 · Europe/BucharestAZ: Echteld previews sc Heerenveenwww.az.nl · 4 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

AZ Alkmaar

1.13fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 88.5%

0.0ppshort

AZ's perfect league start and superior goal difference, combined with Willem II's relegation form, make a home win highly likely.

HT/FTlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

AZ Alkmaar at half-time / AZ Alkmaar at full-time

1.48fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

AZ Alkmaar's pattern of leading at the break and closing out wins makes the HT/FT double a plausible outcome.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches have trended towards high-scoring affairs, and AZ Alkmaar's attacking output supports over 2.5 goals.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 3.5

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

−4.9ppshort

AZ Alkmaar's strong attacking form and Willem II's defensive frailty support a high-scoring match, but the odds offer no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
AZ Alkmaar's perfect league start and superior goal difference, combined with Willem II's relegation form, make a home win highly likely.
- AZ Alkmaar have won all 4 Eredivisie matches this season, scoring 13 and conceding 3.
- Willem II have 1 point from 4 matches, with 4 goals scored and 13 conceded.
- AZ Alkmaar average 2.4 goals per game over their last 15 matches; Willem II average 1.4.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAZ AlkmaarEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
AZ Alkmaar's strong home form and Willem II's poor away record make the double chance of AZ Alkmaar or Draw a very safe outcome.
- AZ Alkmaar are unbeaten in their last 5 Eredivisie matches (4W, 1D).
- Willem II have lost 3 of their last 4 league games.
- AZ Alkmaar have not lost at home in their last 5 home matches across all competitions.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAZ Alkmaar or DrawEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
AZ Alkmaar's strong starts and Willem II's tendency to concede early make AZ Alkmaar the likely first-half leader.
- AZ Alkmaar have led at half-time in 47% of their last 15 matches.
- Willem II have trailed at half-time in 27% of their last 15 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar have won the first half in 3 of their last 5 Eredivisie matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonAZ AlkmaarEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
AZ Alkmaar's superior fitness and attacking depth should see them dominate the second half against a struggling Willem II side.
- AZ Alkmaar have outscored opponents in the second half in 4 of their last 5 Eredivisie matches.
- Willem II have lost the second half in 3 of their last 4 league matches.
- AZ Alkmaar average 1.5 second-half goals per game over their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostAZ AlkmaarEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AZ Alkmaar's pattern of leading at the break and closing out wins makes the HT/FT double a plausible outcome.
- AZ Alkmaar have led at half-time and won the match in 3 of their last 5 Eredivisie matches.
- Willem II have trailed at half-time and lost the match in 2 of their last 4 league games.
- AZ Alkmaar have won 4 consecutive league matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostAZ Alkmaar/AZ AlkmaarEstimated chance50%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have trended towards high-scoring affairs, and AZ Alkmaar's attacking output supports over 2.5 goals.
- AZ Alkmaar's last 5 Eredivisie matches have averaged 3.6 total goals.
- Willem II's last 5 Eredivisie matches have averaged 3.4 total goals.
- AZ Alkmaar have scored at least 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Willem II have shown they can score despite poor results, and AZ Alkmaar's defense has not been flawless at home.
- Willem II have scored in 3 of their last 4 Eredivisie matches.
- AZ Alkmaar have conceded in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- Willem II average 1.4 goals per game over their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AZ Alkmaar's tendency to start strongly could lead to first-half goals, but Willem II's low first-half scoring makes this a riskier bet.
- AZ Alkmaar average 0.9 first-half goals per game over their last 15 matches.
- Willem II average 0.6 first-half goals per game over their last 15 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar have led at half-time in 47% of their recent matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
AZ Alkmaar's strong second-half performances and Willem II's defensive frailty after the break support over 1.5 second-half goals.
- AZ Alkmaar have scored 2+ second-half goals in 3 of their last 5 Eredivisie matches.
- Willem II have conceded 2+ second-half goals in 3 of their last 4 league matches.
- AZ Alkmaar average 1.5 second-half goals per game over their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AZ Alkmaar's high corner count and Willem II's moderate numbers suggest a total above 9.5 corners is possible.
- AZ Alkmaar average 7.6 corners per game over their last 15 matches.
- Willem II average 5.7 corners per game over their last 15 matches.
- Combined average corners in AZ Alkmaar's recent matches is 12.3.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AZ Alkmaar's high shot volume and Willem II's defensive struggles could lead to over 8.5 shots on target.
- AZ Alkmaar average 6.9 shots on target per game over their last 15 matches.
- Willem II average 3.8 shots on target per game over their last 15 matches.
- Combined average shots on target in AZ Alkmaar's recent matches is 10.7.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The low average card counts for both teams make over 3.5 cards a speculative bet.
- AZ Alkmaar average 1.0 yellow cards per game over their last 15 matches.
- Willem II average 1.4 yellow cards per game over their last 15 matches.
- Combined average cards in AZ Alkmaar's recent matches is 2.4.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance45%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 88% leaves no cushion vs our 78% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

W0-2Willem IIvAZ AlkmaarFeb 2, 2025ERE

L1-2AZ AlkmaarvWillem IINov 10, 2024ERE

D2-2Willem IIvAZ AlkmaarMar 20, 2022ERE

W4-1AZ AlkmaarvWillem IIDec 18, 2021ERE

W0-1Willem IIvAZ AlkmaarApr 3, 2021ERE

AZ Alkmaar: 2 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

Eredivisie 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	AZ Alkmaar Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)	4	4	0	0	13-3	12	WWWW
17	Willem II Relegation - Eerste Divisie	4	0	1	3	4-13	1	LDLL

11pt gap between teamsWillem II in relegation zone

Recent Form

AZ Alkmaar

W5-2GO Ahead EaglesAug 29ERE

W2-0Fortuna SittardAug 22ERE

W4-1UtrechtAug 15ERE

W2-0ADO Den HaagAug 8ERE

W4-0PSV EindhovenAug 2SUP

W3-2Olympiakos PiraeusJul 25FRI

W4-0GenkJul 22FRI

D1-1Zulte WaregemJul 18FRI

L0-1AnderlechtJul 15FRI

W2-1Almere City FCJul 11FRI

D3-3GentJul 4FRI

D3-3NAC BredaMay 17ERE

D1-1FeyenoordMay 10ERE

D2-2TwenteMay 3ERE

D0-0GO Ahead EaglesApr 23ERE

Willem II

L0-3ExcelsiorSep 5ERE

D2-2HeerenveenAug 30ERE

L1-4NEC NijmegenAug 15ERE

L1-4GO Ahead EaglesAug 8ERE

W2-1OFIAug 1FRI

W1-0KV MechelenJul 25FRI

D2-2FC EindhovenJul 11FRI

L1-2Quick BoysJul 4FRI

L1-2FC VolendamMay 20EER

W2-0Almere City FCMay 16EER

W1-0Almere City FCMay 13EER

D1-1WaalwijkMay 9EER

W1-0WaalwijkMay 5EER

W2-1DordrechtApr 24EER

W3-0Jong AZApr 17EER

Squad & Injuries

AZ Alkmaar

32 available

Attackers5

Midfielders11

Defenders11

Goalkeeper5

Willem II

29 available

Attackers4

Midfielders13

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Over 1.5

AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar or Draw

AZ Alkmaar at half-time / AZ Alkmaar at full-time

Over 2.5

Over 3.5

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar or Draw

Over 2.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

AZ Alkmaar

Willem II

Squad & Injuries

AZ Alkmaar

Willem II