Major League SoccerFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

San Diego2San Jose Earthquakes3

HT 1–3Thu 10 Sept 2026, 02:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 10–11On targetOn target 6–6CornersCorners 1–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Sep 2026, 05:40 · Europe/Bucharest

San Diego are likely to win or avoid defeat, but the odds are too short to back them.

The goals markets are also overpriced relative to our model, so the best play is to avoid betting on this match unless prices drift significantly.

Context

San Jose Earthquakes sit fourth in the Western Conference with 34 points, but their recent form has dropped sharply.
They have lost four consecutive league matches, including a 5-1 home defeat to Minnesota United on August 23 and a 3-1 home loss to St. Louis City on August 16. In those four games they conceded 13 goals, an average of over three per match. San Diego has won three of its last four home games, scoring three goals in each of the last two home wins. The contrast between San Jose's defensive struggles and San Diego's home scoring form is a key factor for this matchup.
- San Jose lost 5-1 at home to Minnesota United on 2026-08-23.
- San Jose lost 3-1 at home to St. Louis City on 2026-08-16.
- San Jose lost 1-0 away to Los Angeles Galaxy on 2026-08-20.
- San Diego won 3-1 at home against Los Angeles Galaxy on 2026-08-30 and 3-0 at home against Colorado Rapids on 2026-08-23.
San Diego's home record is 6 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with 30 goals scored in 12 home matches.
In their last two home games, San Diego beat Los Angeles Galaxy 3-1 and Colorado Rapids 3-0. San Jose's away defense has been poor, conceding 14 goals in 11 away matches, but they have allowed three or more goals in three of their last four away games. This suggests San Diego's attack could find space against San Jose's back line.
- San Diego won 3-1 at home against Los Angeles Galaxy on 2026-08-30.
- San Diego won 3-0 at home against Colorado Rapids on 2026-08-23.
- San Jose lost 5-1 away to Minnesota United on 2026-08-23 and 3-1 away to St. Louis City on 2026-08-16.
San Diego defender L. Bombino started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, with K. Sargeant starting in the same position in 3 of those fixtures when Bombino did not start.
Bombino's permanent transfer to Stoke City removes a defensive selection option for San Diego. K. Sargeant is the most recent replacement in that position, so the home side's back line may rely on him against San Jose.
- San Diego announced Bombino's permanent transfer to Stoke City on September 1.
- The club retained a future sell-on percentage as part of the transfer.
- L. Bombino started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- K. Sargeant started in the same position in 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when L. Bombino did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 5 Sep 2026, 05:39 · Europe/BucharestSan Diego FC transfer announcementwww.sandiegofc.com · 1 Sep 2026
The teams have met four times since 2025, with each side winning twice overall.
In the most recent meeting at San Diego on April 5, 2026, San Jose lost 3-0. In a friendly at San Diego on January 24, 2026, San Jose lost 2-0. San Jose has failed to score in both away matches against San Diego. This pattern could continue given San Jose's current defensive and attacking form.
- San Jose lost 3-0 away to San Diego on 2026-04-05.
- San Jose lost 2-0 away to San Diego on 2026-01-24.
- San Jose has not scored in either away match against San Diego.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

San Diego

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

San Diego's strong home scoring and San Jose's poor recent form give the home side a clear edge, supported by the structural home advantage.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

San Diego or Draw

1.22fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

San Diego's strong home record and San Jose's recent away struggles make the home side not losing highly likely.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.25fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Predictor estimates 60% for Over 2.5, but odds of 1.25 imply 80%, leaving no value.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.36fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Predictor estimates 58% for BTTS Yes, but odds of 1.36 imply 73.5%, so no edge.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.14fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 87.7%

0.0ppshort

Predictor estimates 65% for first-half Over 0.5, but odds of 1.14 imply 87.7%.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 1.5

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Predictor estimates 55% for second-half Over 1.5, but odds of 1.73 imply 57.8%.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
San Diego's strong home scoring and San Jose's poor recent form give the home side a clear edge, supported by the structural home advantage.
- San Diego home record: 6W-3D-3L, 30 goals scored, 16 conceded in 12 home matches
- San Jose away record: 6W-2D-3L, 20 goals scored, 14 conceded in 11 away matches
- San Diego last 5 form: WWLWD (3W-1D-1L), San Jose last 5 form: DLLLL (0W-1D-4L)
- H2H last 5: San Diego 2 wins, San Jose 2 wins, 1 draw
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSan DiegoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Diego's strong home record and San Jose's recent away struggles make the home side not losing highly likely.
- San Diego home unbeaten rate: 9/12 (75%)
- San Jose away losses: 3/11 (27%)
- San Jose last 5 away form: 1W-1D-3L
BetBugs · Double ChancelostSan Diego or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Diego's home first-half dominance and San Jose's tendency to trail at the break give the home side a slight edge.
- San Diego home first-half record: 40% leading at half-time
- San Jose away first-half record: 20% leading, 40% trailing
- San Diego last 5 home first halves: W,D,W,D,W (3W-2D)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSan DiegoEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Diego's ability to lead at half-time and win at home makes HT/FT San Diego a plausible but lower-probability outcome.
- San Diego home HT/FT: 40% leading at half-time, 50% home win rate
- San Jose away HT/FT: 20% leading at half-time, 27% away loss rate
- San Diego last 5 home: 3 wins, 2 draws
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostSan Diego/San DiegoEstimated chance30%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring home/away splits, and San Diego's attacking output at home supports over 2.5 goals.
- San Diego home matches average 3.83 total goals (30 scored + 16 conceded in 12 games)
- San Jose away matches average 3.09 total goals (20 scored + 14 conceded in 11 games)
- San Diego last 5 home matches: 3,3,5,2,2 goals (avg 3.0)
- San Jose last 5 away matches: 0,1,2,3,3 goals (avg 1.8)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly score and concede in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS a solid value.
- San Diego home: scored in 10/12, conceded in 8/12
- San Jose away: scored in 9/11, conceded in 8/11
- San Diego last 5 home: both teams scored in 3/5
- San Jose last 5 away: both teams scored in 3/5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Diego's home matches consistently produce first-half goals, and San Jose's away first halves often see at least one.
- San Diego home first-half goals: 0.7 per game, conceded 0.6
- San Jose away first-half goals: 0.7 per game, conceded 1.1
- San Diego last 5 home first halves: 1,2,1,0,1 goals (all had at least one)
- San Jose last 5 away first halves: 0,0,0,1,1 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
San Diego's home second halves are high-scoring, and San Jose's away second halves often concede, supporting over 1.5.
- San Diego home second-half goals: 1.2 per game, conceded 0.7
- San Jose away second-half goals: 0.6 per game, conceded 0.9
- San Diego last 5 home second halves: 2,1,4,2,1 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 5 corners each, suggesting a combined total near 10, but variance makes this a low-confidence call.
- San Diego home corners: 4.7 per game, opponent corners: 4.7
- San Jose away corners: 5.5 per game, opponent corners: 5.5
- San Diego last 5 home corners: 7,2,7,6,2 (avg 4.8)
- San Jose last 5 away corners: 4,3,5,4,6 (avg 4.4)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 4.5 shots on target each, making over 8.5 a coin flip.
- San Diego home shots on target: 4.7 per game, opponent: 4.7
- San Jose away shots on target: 4.6 per game, opponent: 4.6
- San Diego last 5 home shots on target: 7,4,6,2,7 (avg 5.2)
- San Jose last 5 away shots on target: 4,6,5,1,5 (avg 4.2)
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined card averages are near 4.5, making this a borderline call with low confidence.
- San Diego home yellow cards: 2.0 per game, opponent: 2.0
- San Jose away yellow cards: 2.5 per game, opponent: 2.5
- San Diego last 5 home yellow cards: 5,0,1,4,3 (avg 2.6)
- San Jose last 5 away yellow cards: 1,1,3,1,4 (avg 2.0)
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 62% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

San Diego has been inconsistent on Over 2.5 goals

San Diego has fulfilled 2 of 4 Over 2.5 goals predictions. The average estimated probability was 65.5%, but only 50% of matches went over. At home, San Diego has fulfilled 2 of 3 predictions, while the single away match stayed under.

Recent evidence for San Diego4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer