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Predictions graded

Stuttgart3Viking Stavanger1

HT 3–1Wed 9 Sept 2026, 16:45 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges7–0100%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 17–9On targetOn target 3–3CornersCorners 3–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Sep 2026, 08:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Stuttgart are likely to win, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Avoid backing the home win, double chance, or over 2.5 goals, as the market overestimates their probabilities. The best approach is to stay away from these markets or look for alternative angles not covered here.

Context

Stuttgart attacker Tiago Tomás started both of the club's completed competitive matches this season before suffering a small muscle injury in training.
His confirmed absence removes a recent starter from Stuttgart's forward rotation for the Viking match. The team must adjust its attacking selection without Tomás, though the specific replacement is not established in the available evidence.
- On 3 September, Stuttgart coach Sebastian Hoeneß said Tomás had suffered a small muscle injury in training and would return only after the international break.
- SWR reports that Tomás started Stuttgart's two completed competitive matches this season.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Sep 2026, 08:22 · Europe/BucharestSWR Sportwww.sportschau.de · 3 Sep 2026
Viking Stavanger attacker E. Austbö had established himself as an important part of the first team before his transfer to West Ham United.
The confirmed sale removes an established wide option from Viking's squad for the trip to Stuttgart. Viking's available attacking choices are reduced, but the evidence does not specify who will take his place.
- Viking announced that it had agreed E. Austbö's transfer to West Ham United.
- Viking described him as having established himself as an important part of its first team.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Sep 2026, 08:22 · Europe/BucharestViking Fotballwww.vikingfotball.no · 31 Aug 2026
Stuttgart are a Bundesliga side entering the Champions League league phase.
Their last competitive match was a 1-5 loss away to Bayern München on 28 August. In that game they conceded five goals and had only 41% possession. This suggests their defence may be vulnerable against Viking Stavanger, though Bayern are a much stronger opponent than Viking.
- Stuttgart lost 1-5 to Bayern München on 2026-08-28.
- Stuttgart conceded 5 goals and had 41% possession in that match.
This is the first meeting between Stuttgart and Viking Stavanger, and it opens the eight-match league phase rather than a two-leg tie.
There is no aggregate score to manage, so game-state decisions concern points from a standalone opening fixture. The fixture's league-phase format means both teams face eight different opponents, with this match carrying no direct return leg.
- VfB confirmed the 9 September fixture as a 18:45 CEST home match against Viking at the MHP Arena.
- VfB confirmed this will be the first meeting between the clubs and explained that each league-phase team plays eight different opponents.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Sep 2026, 08:22 · Europe/BucharestVfB Stuttgartwww.vfb.de · 29 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Stuttgart

1.22fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Stuttgart's strong home form and Viking's weaker away record support a home win, but the odds are shorter than our estimate, offering no value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Stuttgart or Draw

1.06fair 1.11

BetBugs 90% · Market 94%

−4.0ppshort

Stuttgart's unbeaten home run makes a home win or draw highly likely, but the odds are too short to offer value.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Stuttgart

1.56fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64%

0.0ppshort

Stuttgart's tendency to lead at half-time is notable, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate, offering no value.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Stuttgart at half-time / Stuttgart at full-time

1.70fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 59%

0.0ppshort

Stuttgart's home dominance makes a half-time/full-time double plausible, but the odds are shorter than our estimate, offering no value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high scoring averages, but the odds imply an 80% chance, far above our 65% estimate, leaving no value.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Viking's consistent scoring and Stuttgart's occasional defensive lapses suggest both teams can find the net, but the odds are slightly against us.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 1.5

1.78fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 56.2%

0.0ppshort

Stuttgart's strong first-half scoring record makes over 1.5 first-half goals plausible, but the odds are nearly fair.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stuttgart's superior attacking output and home advantage, combined with Viking's weaker away record, make a home win likely.
- Stuttgart average 3.0 goals per match in last 15, with 60% leading at half-time.
- Viking average 2.1 goals per match but concede 1.1, and their away form is mixed.
- Stuttgart have won 4 of last 5 home matches, scoring 4, 3, 1, 4, 2 goals.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonStuttgartEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stuttgart's strong home form and Viking's inconsistent away performances make a Stuttgart win or draw highly probable.
- Stuttgart have not lost at home in their last 5 home matches (4W, 1D).
- Viking have lost 2 of their last 5 away matches.
- Stuttgart's average goals conceded at home is 1.2.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonStuttgart or DrawEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stuttgart's tendency to start strongly and Viking's occasional slow starts favor a Stuttgart half-time lead.
- Stuttgart led at half-time in 60% of their last 15 matches.
- Viking trailed at half-time in 33% of their matches.
- Stuttgart average 1.5 first-half goals vs Viking's 0.9.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonStuttgartEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stuttgart's ability to control matches at home makes a half-time/full-time double plausible.
- Stuttgart won both halves in 4 of their last 10 matches.
- Viking lost both halves in 2 of their last 10 matches.
- Stuttgart's home matches often see them dominate from the start.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonStuttgart/StuttgartEstimated chance50%

Goals3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high scoring averages, and Stuttgart's attacking style should produce multiple goals.
- Stuttgart's last 15 matches average 4.6 total goals (3.0 for, 1.6 against).
- Viking's last 15 matches average 3.2 total goals (2.1 for, 1.1 against).
- Stuttgart have scored at least 2 goals in 8 of their last 10 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Viking's consistent scoring and Stuttgart's occasional defensive lapses suggest both teams can find the net.
- Viking have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Stuttgart have conceded in 9 of their last 15 matches.
- Viking average 1.1 goals conceded per match, but Stuttgart's attack is strong.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stuttgart's strong first-half scoring record makes over 1.5 first-half goals plausible.
- Stuttgart average 1.5 first-half goals per match.
- Viking average 0.9 first-half goals per match.
- Stuttgart led at half-time in 60% of their matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, making over 9.5 total corners likely.
- Stuttgart average 6.3 corners per match, Viking average 7.2.
- Combined average corners per match is 13.5.
- Stuttgart's home matches average 7.0 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are accurate in front of goal, suggesting a high number of shots on target.
- Stuttgart average 6.4 shots on target per match.
- Viking average 5.4 shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target is 11.8.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The match could be competitive, leading to a moderate number of cards.
- Stuttgart average 1.8 yellow cards per match.
- Viking average 2.5 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards is 4.3.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 82% leaves no cushion vs our 72% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Stuttgart has been highly reliable when projected to go over 2.5 goals

Stuttgart has fulfilled 5 of 6 recent over 2.5 goals projections. The average estimated probability was 71%, with an expected 4.3 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment exceeded expectation. Matched predictions averaged 72.2% probability while the single miss was at 65%, indicating stronger confidence in successful outcomes.

Recent evidence for Stuttgart6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

16 May·Bundesliga