USL ChampionshipFull time

Predictions graded

Tampa Bay Rowdies2Brooklyn FC0

HT 1–0Sat 5 Sept 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–562%

Edges6–367%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 05:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Tampa Bay are heavy favourites at home against a Brooklyn side missing key forward Markus Anderson, but the odds offer no value on the home win or over 2.5 goals.

The only slight edge is on Brooklyn to score over 0.5 goals, though even that is risky given their weakened attack.

Context

Tampa Bay Rowdies have won 13, drawn 6, and lost 3 this season, scoring 38 goals and conceding 20.
The 29-point gap between the teams reflects a large difference in performance. Tampa Bay's strong home record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in 10 home matches gives them a clear advantage. Brooklyn's away record is poor, with only 1 win, 3 draws, and 6 losses in 10 away matches, and they have conceded 26 goals on the road.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies are 1st with 45 points from 22 matches (13W, 6D, 3L).
- Brooklyn FC are 12th with 16 points from 20 matches (4W, 4D, 12L).
- Tampa Bay Rowdies have a home record of 6W, 2D, 2L in 10 home matches.
- Brooklyn FC have an away record of 1W, 3D, 6L in 10 away matches.
Brooklyn forward Markus Anderson was recalled by Philadelphia Union on 2 September, three days before this match. He had started 14 of 16 league appearances and scored in the 4-1 win over Sporting Jacksonville on 29 August.
Brooklyn must adjust their attack without a recent regular starter. Anderson's six goals and four assists came from a starting role, so his absence removes a proven contributor from the visitors' forward line. The club has not announced a direct replacement, leaving uncertainty over how Brooklyn will structure their attack.
- Brooklyn announced on 2 September that Philadelphia Union recalled forward Markus Anderson from his loan.
- The club said he made 16 league appearances, started 14, and contributed six goals and four assists.
- His most recent league goal came in Brooklyn’s 4-1 win over Sporting Jacksonville on 29 August.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 05:26 · Europe/BucharestMarkus Anderson Recalled from Loan by Philadelphia Unionwww.brooklynfootballclub.com · 2 Sep 2026
Brooklyn FC's recent results include a 4-1 win over Sporting JAX on August 29, but losses to Pittsburgh Riverhounds, Las Vegas Lights, Charleston Battery, and San Antonio.
The heavy 5-0 defeat to Charleston Battery on August 1 stands out as a particularly poor performance. This run of defeats suggests defensive vulnerabilities, especially away from home where they have conceded 26 goals in 10 matches. Tampa Bay Rowdies, by contrast, have won three of their last five matches and are in strong form.
- Brooklyn FC lost 0-1 to Pittsburgh Riverhounds on August 22.
- Brooklyn FC lost 1-2 to Las Vegas Lights on August 16.
- Brooklyn FC lost 0-5 to Charleston Battery on August 1.
- Brooklyn FC lost 0-1 to San Antonio on July 25.
The match was played at Brooklyn's home ground, but Tampa Bay Rowdies secured a comfortable victory.
Tampa Bay Rowdies scored twice in the first half and kept a clean sheet. This result shows Tampa Bay's ability to control matches against Brooklyn, and they will look to repeat that performance at home. Brooklyn have struggled to score against Tampa Bay, failing to find the net in that encounter.
- On June 20, 2026, Tampa Bay Rowdies won 2-0 away against Brooklyn FC.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies scored both goals in the first half.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Tampa Bay Rowdies

1.30fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Tampa Bay's superior league position, strong home form, and Brooklyn's poor away record make a home win the most likely outcome.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Tampa Bay Rowdies or Draw

1.08fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 92.6%

−4.6ppshort

Given Tampa Bay's strong home form and Brooklyn's poor away record, the home side is very unlikely to lose.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Tampa Bay Rowdies

1.67fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Tampa Bay's tendency to lead at half-time and Brooklyn's tendency to trail give the home side an edge in the first half.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Tampa Bay Rowdies at half-time / Tampa Bay Rowdies at full-time

1.80fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Tampa Bay's ability to lead at half-time and close out wins, especially at home, supports the HT/FT double.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Tampa Bay Rowdies to score

1.20fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Brooklyn have kept only 2 clean sheets in 15 and Tampa Bay have scored in 13 of 15, making an away clean sheet very unlikely.

Total Goals HomewonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 1.5

1.38fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Tampa Bay average 1.9 goals per game and Brooklyn concede 1.9, but the odds heavily favor the home side scoring twice.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tampa Bay's superior league position, strong home form, and Brooklyn's poor away record make a home win the most likely outcome.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies are 1st in the Eastern Conference with 45 points from 22 matches, while Brooklyn FC are 12th with 16 points from 20 matches.
- Tampa Bay have won 6 of 10 home matches this season, scoring 22 goals and conceding 14.
- Brooklyn FC have lost 6 of 10 away matches, conceding 26 goals.
- Head-to-head: Tampa Bay won the most recent meeting 2-0 away at Brooklyn on 2026-06-20.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTampa Bay RowdiesEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Tampa Bay's strong home form and Brooklyn's poor away record, the home side is very unlikely to lose.
- Tampa Bay have lost only 2 of 10 home matches this season.
- Brooklyn FC have won only 1 of 10 away matches.
- Tampa Bay's overall record is 13 wins, 6 draws, 3 losses.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonTampa Bay Rowdies or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tampa Bay's tendency to lead at half-time and Brooklyn's tendency to trail give the home side an edge in the first half.
- Tampa Bay led at half-time in 53% of their last 15 matches.
- Brooklyn FC trailed at half-time in 40% of their last 15 matches.
- Tampa Bay have scored first-half goals in 10 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonTampa Bay RowdiesEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tampa Bay's stronger overall squad and Brooklyn's tendency to fade in the second half make a home second-half win likely.
- Tampa Bay have outscored opponents in the second half in 8 of their last 15 matches.
- Brooklyn FC have been outscored in the second half in 9 of their last 15 matches.
- Tampa Bay's superior fitness and depth likely give them an advantage late in games.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonTampa Bay RowdiesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tampa Bay's ability to lead at half-time and close out wins, especially at home, supports the HT/FT double.
- Tampa Bay led at half-time and won the match in 6 of their last 15 matches.
- Brooklyn FC trailed at half-time and lost the match in 5 of their last 15 matches.
- Tampa Bay's home record shows they often start strong and maintain leads.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonTampa Bay Rowdies / Tampa Bay RowdiesEstimated chance40%

Goals3 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches and home/away splits suggest a high-scoring game, with Brooklyn's leaky defense contributing to the likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
- Tampa Bay average 1.9 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match in their last 15 matches.
- Brooklyn FC average 1.4 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per match in their last 15 matches.
- Tampa Bay's home matches have averaged 3.6 total goals (22 scored, 14 conceded in 10 games).
- Brooklyn's away matches have averaged 3.8 total goals (12 scored, 26 conceded in 10 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability, and Brooklyn's defensive vulnerabilities make it likely that both teams find the net.
- Tampa Bay have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Brooklyn FC have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Brooklyn have conceded in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Tampa Bay have conceded in 9 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half goal averages suggest a moderate chance of over 1.5 goals in the first half, though confidence is low due to variability.
- Tampa Bay average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded in their last 15 matches.
- Brooklyn FC average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded in their last 15 matches.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.6 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, and Brooklyn's defense often concedes late, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Tampa Bay average 1.0 second-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded in their last 15 matches.
- Brooklyn FC average 0.7 second-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded in their last 15 matches.
- Combined second-half goal average is 1.7 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tampa Bay's solid defense and Brooklyn's occasional scoring struggles give a moderate chance of a home clean sheet.
- Tampa Bay have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 15 matches.
- Brooklyn FC have failed to score in 5 of their last 15 matches.
- Brooklyn's away matches have seen them score in 7 of 10 games, but they have been shut out 3 times.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBrooklyn FC not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brooklyn's poor defensive record and Tampa Bay's consistent scoring make an away clean sheet very unlikely.
- Brooklyn FC have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 15 matches.
- Tampa Bay have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Brooklyn's away defense has conceded 26 goals in 10 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonTampa Bay Rowdies to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tampa Bay's strong attack and Brooklyn's leaky defense make it likely the home side scores at least twice.
- Tampa Bay average 1.9 goals per match in their last 15 matches.
- Tampa Bay have scored 2 or more goals in 9 of their last 15 matches.
- Brooklyn FC concede an average of 1.9 goals per match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonTampa Bay Rowdies over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brooklyn's ability to score and Tampa Bay's occasional defensive lapses make an away goal likely.
- Brooklyn FC average 1.4 goals per match in their last 15 matches.
- Brooklyn have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Tampa Bay have conceded in 9 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostBrooklyn FC over 0.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 77% leaves no cushion vs our 68% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Tampa Bay Rowdies have been moderately reliable when projected to win

Tampa Bay Rowdies have fulfilled 4 of 7 recent win projections. Their average estimated probability was 58.9%, with an expected 4.1 fulfilled predictions, so actual results closely tracked expectations. However, they have lost twice and drawn once when projected to win, and their home record is just 1 of 3 fulfilled, while away they have fulfilled 3 of 4.

Recent evidence for Tampa Bay Rowdies7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·USL Championship