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Predictions graded

NEC Nijmegen1Feyenoord3

HT 0–0Sat 5 Sept 2026, 14:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 12–11On targetOn target 2–6CornersCorners 1–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 13:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Feyenoord are the likely winners based on form, but the odds offer no value.

The best betting angle is to avoid the heavily favored Over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes markets, as our model sees significantly lower probabilities than the market implies.

Context

Feyenoord sit third in the Eredivisie with eight points from four matches, scoring ten goals and conceding six.
Their away record is perfect with two wins from two, including a 5-2 victory at Cambuur on 23 August. However, at home they drew 2-2 with ADO Den Haag and 2-2 with GO Ahead Eagles, showing they can be vulnerable defensively. Against NEC, who have scored eight goals in three league games, Feyenoord's back line will need to be sharper than in those home draws.
- Feyenoord are unbeaten in four Eredivisie matches (2 wins, 2 draws).
- Both home matches ended 2-2, against ADO Den Haag on 30 August and GO Ahead Eagles on 16 August.
- Away from home, Feyenoord won 5-2 at Cambuur on 23 August and 1-0 at Sparta Rotterdam on 9 August.
NEC are seventh with six points from three matches, scoring eight goals and conceding four.
They won 3-1 at PEC Zwolle on 29 August and 4-1 at Willem II on 15 August, showing attacking strength on the road. At home, they lost 1-2 to Telstar on 8 August despite having 71% possession and 27 shots. Feyenoord's away form is strong, so NEC may need to replicate their away performance rather than their home display.
- NEC won 3-1 at PEC Zwolle on 29 August and 4-1 at Willem II on 15 August.
- Their only home league match was a 1-2 loss to Telstar on 8 August.
- NEC have scored 8 goals in 3 league games, with 7 coming away from home.
NEC and Feyenoord have met five times in the Eredivisie since May 2024.
The most recent meeting on 12 April 2026 ended 1-1 at NEC. Before that, NEC won 4-2 at Feyenoord on 23 November 2025, and the two prior matches were draws. This pattern indicates neither side has dominated recently, and another tight game is possible.
- On 12 April 2026, NEC and Feyenoord drew 1-1 at NEC.
- On 23 November 2025, NEC won 4-2 at Feyenoord.
- The two meetings before that, on 1 March 2025 and 28 September 2024, both ended in draws.
NEC defender P. Schuurs is available again after his first match action since October 2023, having come on against PEC Zwolle on 29 August and scored.
His return gives NEC another defensive option for this match and the short turnaround that follows. The late substitute appearance suggests he may be used carefully, but his presence could allow rotation or cover if needed.
- NEC said Schuurs was named in their matchday squad for the first time since joining the club.
- He came on against PEC Zwolle on 29 August and scored NEC's late third goal.
- NEC reported that his previous match before this return was for Torino in October 2023.
- P. Schuurs started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 13:25 · Europe/BucharestNEC match report: PEC Zwolle 1-3 NECwww.nec-nijmegen.nl · 29 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Feyenoord

2.00fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 50%

0.0ppshort

Feyenoord's away record this season (2 wins in 2) and NEC's poor home start (1 loss in 1) give the visitors a clear edge, but the odds are fair.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Feyenoord

1.35fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 74%

0.0ppshort

Feyenoord's unbeaten run and NEC's home struggles make the away side or draw highly likely, but the odds are fair.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.30fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high-scoring tendencies, but the odds offer no value relative to our estimate.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.33fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

NEC's attacking output at home and Feyenoord's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring a reasonable expectation, but the odds are too short.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Feyenoord's strong away form and NEC's poor home start give the visitors a clear edge, supported by motivation to keep pace with the top.
- Feyenoord away record this season: 2 wins in 2, 6 goals scored, 2 conceded
- NEC home record this season: 1 loss in 1, 1 goal scored, 2 conceded
- Feyenoord last 5 Eredivisie matches: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses
- NEC last 5 Eredivisie matches: 3 wins, 2 losses
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFeyenoordEstimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Feyenoord's unbeaten run and NEC's home struggles make the away side or draw highly likely.
- Feyenoord unbeaten in last 5 Eredivisie matches (3W, 2D)
- NEC lost their only home league match this season
- H2H last 5: 3 draws, 1 Feyenoord win, 1 NEC win
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or FeyenoordEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by Feyenoord's superior quality in the second half is a plausible scenario.
- Feyenoord led at halftime in 40% of matches, drew in 47%
- NEC drew at halftime in 20% of matches
- Feyenoord won 2 of last 5 Eredivisie matches after drawing at halftime
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/FeyenoordEstimated chance22%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring tendencies, with NEC's leaky defense and Feyenoord's potent attack pointing to multiple goals.
- NEC average goals per match: 1.9 for, 1.6 against
- Feyenoord average goals per match: 2.3 for, 0.9 against
- Combined average goals in NEC matches: 3.5
- Combined average goals in Feyenoord matches: 3.2
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
NEC's attacking output at home and Feyenoord's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring a reasonable expectation.
- NEC scored in 4 of last 5 Eredivisie matches
- Feyenoord conceded in 3 of last 5 Eredivisie matches
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, with Feyenoord especially strong early, making a first-half goal likely.
- NEC first half goals per match: 0.8, conceded 0.9
- Feyenoord first half goals per match: 1.1, conceded 0.3
- Feyenoord led at halftime in 40% of matches, trailed in 13%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score more in the second half, and with NEC pushing at home, the second half could see multiple goals.
- NEC second half goals per match: 1.1 (total 1.9 - first half 0.8)
- Feyenoord second half goals per match: 1.2 (total 2.3 - first half 1.1)
- Combined second half average: 2.3 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, and the expected attacking flow should push the total above the line.
- NEC average corners per match: 6.5, opponent corners: 4.5
- Feyenoord average corners per match: 6.6, opponent corners: 3.5
- Combined average corners in NEC matches: 11.0
- Combined average corners in Feyenoord matches: 10.1
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce a solid number of shots on target, and the open nature of the match should keep the total high.
- NEC average shots on target per match: 5.6, opponent: 4.5
- Feyenoord average shots on target per match: 6.4, opponent: 3.5
- Combined average shots on target in NEC matches: 10.1
- Combined average shots on target in Feyenoord matches: 9.9
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have relatively low card counts, and the match is unlikely to be overly physical.
- NEC average yellow cards per match: 1.5, opponent: 1.3
- Feyenoord average yellow cards per match: 1.3, opponent: 1.5
- Combined average cards in NEC matches: 2.8
- Combined average cards in Feyenoord matches: 2.8
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 35% vs our estimate 28%; no value on the home side.

Head-to-Head

1W · 3D · 1W

D1-1NEC NijmegenvFeyenoordApr 12, 2026ERE

W2-4FeyenoordvNEC NijmegenNov 23, 2025ERE

D0-0FeyenoordvNEC NijmegenMar 1, 2025ERE

D1-1NEC NijmegenvFeyenoordSep 28, 2024ERE

L2-3NEC NijmegenvFeyenoordMay 12, 2024ERE

3 goals/game avg

League Table

Eredivisie 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	NEC Nijmegen Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)	3	2	0	1	8-4	6	WWL
3	Feyenoord Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)	4	2	2	0	10-6	8	DWDW

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

NEC Nijmegen

W3-1PEC ZwolleAug 29ERE

L0-3Bodo/GlimtAug 25UEF

L1-3Bodo/GlimtAug 19UEF

W4-1Willem IIAug 15ERE

L1-2TelstarAug 8ERE

D0-0Olympiakos PiraeusAug 4UEF

L1-2SevillaJul 31FRI

L0-1SV ElversbergJul 25FRI

W7-0Al-FayhaJul 18FRI

W3-1V-varen NagasakiJul 14FRI

L2-3AnderlechtJul 11FRI

L2-3MSV DuisburgJul 8FRI

D1-1De TreffersJul 1FRI

W2-1GO Ahead EaglesMay 17ERE

L1-2GroningenMay 10ERE

Feyenoord

D2-2ADO Den HaagAug 30ERE

W5-2CambuurAug 23ERE

D2-2GO Ahead EaglesAug 16ERE

W1-0Sparta RotterdamAug 9ERE

W2-1AtalantaAug 2FRI

W2-1Rayo VallecanoJul 26FRI

W3-1CharleroiJul 17FRI

W3-1Club Brugge KVJul 11FRI

W6-0DordrechtJul 4FRI

W2-0PEC ZwolleMay 17ERE

D1-1AZ AlkmaarMay 10ERE

W2-1Fortuna SittardMay 3ERE

W3-1GroningenApr 25ERE

D1-1NEC NijmegenApr 12ERE

D0-0FC VolendamApr 5ERE

Squad & Injuries

NEC Nijmegen

34 available

Attackers7

Midfielders8

Defenders14

Goalkeeper5

Feyenoord

36 available

Attackers9

Midfielders11

Defenders13

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Feyenoord

Draw or Feyenoord

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

NEC Nijmegen

Feyenoord

Squad & Injuries

NEC Nijmegen

Feyenoord