EredivisieFull time

Predictions graded

NEC Nijmegen2Go Ahead Eagles1

HT 2–0Sun 17 May 2026, 12:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–283%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 37–3On targetOn target 12–1CornersCorners 13–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 May 2026, 18:08 · Europe/Bucharest

NEC’s strong home form clashes with Go Ahead’s dominant H2H record, making the match winner market unreliable.

The best value lies in opposing an away clean sheet (85% probability vs. 71.4% implied) and backing BTTS (70% vs. 66.7%), with both teams consistently scoring in their respective splits and recent meetings.

Context

Go Ahead won 3-2 at NEC in March 2025 and 5-0 at home in December 2024.
- NEC have not beaten Go Ahead in the league since January 2024.
- Across the last five H2Hs, Go Ahead outscored NEC 13-6.
NEC home record: 8 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses; 39 goals scored.
- Go Ahead away record: 2 wins, 7 draws, 7 losses; 19 goals scored.
- NEC are unbeaten in their last five home matches (3 wins, 2 draws).
NEC home BTTS rate: 11 of 16 matches (69%).
- Go Ahead away BTTS rate: 11 of 16 matches (69%).
- Last five H2Hs: BTTS in four matches, with NEC conceding in all five.
Adjei was arrested after Go Ahead's 4-0 win over Heracles on 22 February 2026.
- The club stated he was released shortly after and no further consequences are expected.
- No player absences or tactical changes have been linked to the incident.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

NEC Nijmegen or Draw

1.11fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 90%

0.0ppshort

NEC are unbeaten in 13 of 16 home matches while Go Ahead have only 2 away wins all season, making a home win or draw highly probable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
NEC's strong home form and Go Ahead's poor away record give NEC a clear edge, supported by structural home/away splits.
- NEC home record: 8W-5D-3L, 39 goals scored, 24 conceded in 16 matches
- Go Ahead away record: 2W-7D-7L, 19 goals scored, 27 conceded in 16 matches
- NEC last 5 home matches: 3W-2D-0L, scored 10, conceded 5
- Go Ahead last 5 away matches: 0W-3D-2L, scored 3, conceded 7
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNEC NijmegenEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
NEC are very hard to beat at home, while Go Ahead struggle on the road, making a home win or draw highly likely.
- NEC home record: 8W-5D-3L, unbeaten in 13 of 16 home matches
- Go Ahead away record: 2W-7D-7L, only 2 wins in 16 away matches
- NEC last 5 home matches: 3W-2D-0L
- Go Ahead last 5 away matches: 0W-3D-2L
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNEC Nijmegen or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
NEC have a slight edge in first-half performance at home, but the low lead rate keeps confidence low.
- NEC home: led at half-time in 6 of 16 matches (38%)
- Go Ahead away: trailed at half-time in 6 of 16 matches (38%)
- NEC last 5 home: led at half-time in 2 matches
- Go Ahead last 5 away: trailed at half-time in 2 matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonNEC NijmegenEstimated chance40%

Goals6 of 7 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high BTTS rates home/away, and H2H history shows frequent goals at both ends, driven by tactical openness.
- NEC home: both teams scored in 11 of 16 matches (69%)
- Go Ahead away: both teams scored in 11 of 16 matches (69%)
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 4 of 5 matches
- NEC conceded in 13 of 16 home matches; Go Ahead scored in 12 of 16 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
High-scoring trends in both teams' home/away splits and recent H2H meetings point to at least three goals.
- NEC home matches: over 2.5 in 10 of 16 (63%)
- Go Ahead away matches: over 2.5 in 10 of 16 (63%)
- Last 5 H2H: over 2.5 in 4 of 5 matches
- NEC average 2.44 goals scored at home; Go Ahead average 1.19 scored away but concede 1.69
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
NEC consistently score multiple goals at home, and Go Ahead's away defense often concedes at least two.
- NEC home: scored 2+ in 11 of 16 matches (69%)
- NEC last 5 home: scored 2+ in 4 matches
- Go Ahead away: conceded 2+ in 9 of 16 matches (56%)
- Last 5 H2H: NEC scored 2+ in 3 of 5 matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonNEC Nijmegen over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Go Ahead rarely keep clean sheets away, and NEC are consistent scorers at home, making an away clean sheet very unlikely.
- Go Ahead away: clean sheets in only 3 of 16 matches (19%)
- NEC home: failed to score in only 3 of 16 matches (19%)
- Last 5 H2H: Go Ahead kept no clean sheets
- NEC scored in 13 of 16 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonNEC Nijmegen to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see first-half goals in their respective home/away matches, and H2H history supports early scoring.
- NEC home: first-half goals in 13 of 16 matches (81%)
- Go Ahead away: first-half goals in 12 of 16 matches (75%)
- Last 5 H2H: first-half goals in 4 of 5 matches
- NEC average 0.7 first-half goals at home; Go Ahead concede 0.5 first-half goals away
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves often produce multiple goals in matches involving these teams, with NEC pushing at home and Go Ahead vulnerable late.
- NEC home: second-half over 1.5 in 10 of 16 matches (63%)
- Go Ahead away: second-half over 1.5 in 9 of 16 matches (56%)
- Last 5 H2H: second-half over 1.5 in 3 of 5 matches
- NEC score 1.1 second-half goals at home; Go Ahead concede 1.0 second-half goals away
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First-half BTTS is uncommon for both teams in their respective splits, suggesting a low-scoring start.
- NEC home: both teams scored in first half in 5 of 16 matches (31%)
- Go Ahead away: both teams scored in first half in 5 of 16 matches (31%)
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in first half in 2 of 5 matches
- NEC first-half goals conceded at home: 0.6; Go Ahead first-half goals scored away: 0.4
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate high corner counts in their respective home/away matches, and H2H trends support a total above 9.5.
- NEC home: average 6.7 corners for, 3.1 against, total 9.8 per match
- Go Ahead away: average 5.5 corners for, 5.9 against, total 11.4 per match
- Last 5 H2H: total corners averaged 10.2
- NEC last 5 home: total corners averaged 10.4
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Card averages hover around the 3.5 line, with slight upward trend in recent NEC home matches, but confidence is low due to marginal data.
- NEC home: average 2.1 yellow cards, opponents 1.8, total 3.9 per match
- Go Ahead away: average 1.9 yellow cards, opponents 1.6, total 3.5 per match
- Last 5 H2H: total cards averaged 3.8
- NEC last 5 home: total cards averaged 4.2
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

D1-1GO Ahead EaglesvNEC NijmegenOct 5, 2025ERE

L2-3NEC NijmegenvGO Ahead EaglesMar 9, 2025ERE

L5-0GO Ahead EaglesvNEC NijmegenDec 7, 2024ERE

L1-2NEC NijmegenvGO Ahead EaglesMay 23, 2024ERE

D2-2GO Ahead EaglesvNEC NijmegenJan 28, 2024ERE

Go Ahead Eagles unbeaten in 5 meetings3.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Eredivisie 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	NEC Nijmegen Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)	33	15	11	7	75-52	56	LDDDW
12	Go Ahead Eagles	33	8	14	11	53-51	38	LDDDW

18pt gap between teams

Recent Form

NEC Nijmegen

L1-2GroningenMay 10ERE

D1-1TelstarMay 2ERE

D1-1TwenteApr 25ERE

L1-5AZ AlkmaarApr 19KNV

D1-1FeyenoordApr 12ERE

W2-0ExcelsiorApr 4ERE

D2-2HeerenveenMar 22ERE

W3-2PSV EindhovenMar 14ERE

W3-0FC VolendamMar 8ERE

W3-2PSV EindhovenMar 3KNV

L2-3Fortuna SittardFeb 28ERE

D1-1AjaxFeb 21ERE

D1-1Sparta RotterdamFeb 17ERE

L1-3UtrechtFeb 11ERE

W4-1HeraclesFeb 7ERE

Go Ahead Eagles

L1-4PSV EindhovenMay 10ERE

D2-2Sparta RotterdamMay 3ERE

D0-0AZ AlkmaarApr 23ERE

D0-0GroningenApr 11ERE

W5-0PEC ZwolleApr 5ERE

L0-2UtrechtMar 22ERE

W6-0NAC BredaMar 15ERE

L1-4TwenteMar 8ERE

W1-0ExcelsiorMar 1ERE

W4-0HeraclesFeb 22ERE

L0-1FeyenoordFeb 15ERE

L1-3HeerenveenFeb 11ERE

D1-1TelstarFeb 8ERE

L1-2TelstarFeb 5KNV

D1-1FC VolendamFeb 1ERE

Squad & Injuries

NEC Nijmegen

30 available

Attackers9

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Go Ahead Eagles

27 available

Attackers8

Midfielders8

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

NEC Nijmegen to score

NEC Nijmegen or Draw

Over 1.5

No

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals6 of 7 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

NEC Nijmegen

Go Ahead Eagles

Squad & Injuries

NEC Nijmegen

Go Ahead Eagles