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Predictions graded

Sparta Rotterdam0Feyenoord1

HT 0–1Sun 9 Aug 2026, 10:15 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges3–443%

PossPossession 41%–59%ShotsShots 10–22On targetOn target 0–6CornersCorners 5–10

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Aug 2026, 07:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Feyenoord are deserved favorites in a high-scoring Rotterdam derby, but defensive injuries make a clean sheet unlikely and the -1 handicap risky.

The best value is over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.10, backed by a 60% estimated probability and a +12-point edge, as both teams tend to accelerate after the break.

Context

T. Beelen is out with a broken leg.
- J. Bos is out with a knee injury.
- B. Nieuwkoop is out with an unspecified injury.
- J. Moder is out with a knee injury.
Sparta lost 4 of their last 5 Eredivisie matches (W1 D0 L4).
- They conceded 4 goals in 3 of those 4 losses.
- Over the last 15 matches, Sparta conceded 1.8 goals per game on average.
Last 3 H2H results: Feyenoord 3-4 Sparta (Jan 2026), Sparta 0-4 Feyenoord (Aug 2025), Feyenoord 3-0 Sparta (Feb 2025).
- Total goals in those 3 matches: 14 (average 4.67 per game).
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 3 meetings.
Feyenoord's last 10 competitive matches: W6 D3 L1.
- They scored 2+ goals in all 5 pre-season friendlies (2, 2, 3, 3, 6 goals).
- Over the last 15 matches, Feyenoord averaged 2.1 goals scored per game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Feyenoord

1.22fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Feyenoord are unbeaten in 9 of their last 10 competitive matches and have lost only once in the last 5 H2H meetings, while Sparta have failed to win 4 of their last 5 Eredivisie games.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Feyenoord

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60%

0.0ppshort

Feyenoord's superior H2H record and Sparta's poor defensive form give the visitors a clear edge, despite Sparta's recent upset win in January.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams frequently see first-half action, and the H2H trend reinforces the likelihood of at least one goal before halftime.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Feyenoord's superior H2H record and Sparta's poor defensive form give the visitors a clear edge, despite Sparta's recent upset win in January.
- Feyenoord won 4 of last 5 H2H meetings, including 4-0 and 3-0 wins in 2025.
- Sparta Rotterdam lost 4 of last 5 Eredivisie matches, conceding 4 goals in 3 of those losses.
- Feyenoord averaged 2.1 goals per game over last 15 matches, while Sparta conceded 1.8 per game.
- Sparta's home form in last 5 Eredivisie home games: W1 D2 L2, with only 1 clean sheet.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFeyenoordEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Feyenoord's strong H2H dominance and Sparta's struggles to win, a double chance covering Feyenoord win or draw is highly likely.
- Feyenoord unbeaten in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings (W4 D1).
- Sparta Rotterdam failed to win 4 of last 5 Eredivisie matches (D2 L2).
- Feyenoord lost only 1 of last 10 competitive matches (W6 D3 L1).
- Sparta's home win rate in last 5 Eredivisie home games: only 20%.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or FeyenoordEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first-half H2H record and balanced recent first-half performances suggest a draw at halftime is the most probable single outcome, though confidence is low due to variance.
- Last 5 H2H first-half results: 3 draws, 1 Feyenoord lead, 1 Sparta lead.
- Sparta's last 5 Eredivisie first-half results: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.
- Feyenoord's last 5 Eredivisie first-half results: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.
- Both teams have similar first-half goal averages (Sparta 0.5/0.6, Feyenoord 0.7/0.5).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A pattern of Feyenoord pulling away in the second half after a tight first half is plausible given their superior depth and Sparta's second-half defensive issues.
- In 2 of last 5 H2H meetings, the match was level at halftime but Feyenoord won at full time.
- Feyenoord has a stronger second-half goal difference in recent matches (+0.4 per game vs Sparta's -0.3).
- Sparta's last 5 Eredivisie matches: led at halftime only once, and lost 3 of those matches.
- Feyenoord's last 5 Eredivisie matches: drew at halftime 3 times, but won 2 of those matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw / FeyenoordEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
High-scoring H2H trend and both teams' recent goal involvement patterns strongly support over 2.5 goals.
- Last 3 H2H meetings produced 14 goals (4.67 per game), all over 2.5.
- Sparta's last 5 Eredivisie matches averaged 3.4 total goals, with 4 of 5 over 2.5.
- Feyenoord's last 5 Eredivisie matches averaged 2.8 total goals, with 3 of 5 over 2.5.
- Sparta conceded 1.8 goals per game over last 15, Feyenoord scored 2.1 per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability but defensive vulnerabilities, making both teams to score a reasonable expectation.
- Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Sparta scored in 4 of last 5 Eredivisie matches, but kept only 1 clean sheet in that span.
- Feyenoord scored in 4 of last 5 Eredivisie matches, but kept only 2 clean sheets.
- Sparta's home games: both teams scored in 3 of last 5 Eredivisie home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently see first-half action, and the H2H trend reinforces the likelihood of at least one goal before halftime.
- First-half goals occurred in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Sparta's last 5 Eredivisie matches: first-half goals in 4 of 5.
- Feyenoord's last 5 Eredivisie matches: first-half goals in 4 of 5.
- Sparta averaged 0.5 first-half goals for, 0.6 against; Feyenoord 0.7 for, 0.5 against.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see more goals after halftime, and the H2H data supports a high-scoring second half.
- Last 5 H2H meetings: second-half goals averaged 2.2 per game.
- Sparta's last 5 Eredivisie matches: second-half goals averaged 2.0, with 4 of 5 over 1.5.
- Feyenoord's last 5 Eredivisie matches: second-half goals averaged 1.8, with 3 of 5 over 1.5.
- Sparta conceded 1.2 second-half goals per game on average, Feyenoord scored 1.4.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Feyenoord's inconsistent defensive record and Sparta's ability to find the net at home make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Feyenoord kept only 2 clean sheets in last 10 competitive matches.
- Sparta scored in 4 of last 5 Eredivisie matches and in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Feyenoord's away clean sheet rate in last 5 Eredivisie away games: 20%.
- Sparta failed to score in only 1 of last 5 home Eredivisie matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSparta Rotterdam to scoreEstimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Feyenoord's high corner count and the historical H2H corner totals suggest a moderate chance of exceeding 9.5 corners, though confidence is low due to limited corner data.
- Feyenoord averaged 6.1 corners per game over last 15 matches, Sparta 3.9.
- Last 5 H2H meetings with corner data: total corners averaged 10.2 (Sparta 4.0, Feyenoord 6.2).
- Sparta's last 5 Eredivisie home games: total corners averaged 9.8.
- Feyenoord's last 5 Eredivisie away games: total corners averaged 10.4.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Feyenoord's injury-hit defence and Sparta's ability to score at home make a one-goal handicap risky; the market price of 2.50 implies only 40% probability, but our estimate is closer to 35%.

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

W3-4FeyenoordvSparta RotterdamJan 18, 2026ERE

L0-4Sparta RotterdamvFeyenoordAug 31, 2025ERE

L3-0FeyenoordvSparta RotterdamFeb 8, 2025ERE

D1-1Sparta RotterdamvFeyenoordAug 25, 2024ERE

L2-0FeyenoordvSparta RotterdamFeb 11, 2024ERE

Feyenoord: 3 clean sheets3.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Eredivisie 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
13	Sparta Rotterdam	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
9	Feyenoord	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

Sparta Rotterdam leads the leagueFeyenoord leads the league

Recent Form

Sparta Rotterdam

D0-0MSV DuisburgAug 1FRI

D1-1Asteras TripolisJul 28FRI

L2-3Zulte WaregemJul 25FRI

L2-3SV MeppenJul 18FRI

W1-0TelstarJul 11FRI

W4-0VOCJul 7FRI

L2-3ExcelsiorMay 17ERE

L0-4TwenteMay 10ERE

D2-2GO Ahead EaglesMay 3ERE

L1-4TelstarApr 22ERE

L0-2PSV EindhovenApr 11ERE

D0-0NAC BredaApr 5ERE

W2-0FC VolendamMar 21ERE

L0-4AjaxMar 14ERE

D1-1PEC ZwolleMar 8ERE

Feyenoord

W2-1AtalantaAug 2FRI

W2-1Rayo VallecanoJul 26FRI

W3-1CharleroiJul 17FRI

W3-1Club Brugge KVJul 11FRI

W6-0DordrechtJul 4FRI

W2-0PEC ZwolleMay 17ERE

D1-1AZ AlkmaarMay 10ERE

W2-1Fortuna SittardMay 3ERE

W3-1GroningenApr 25ERE

D1-1NEC NijmegenApr 12ERE

D0-0FC VolendamApr 5ERE

D1-1AjaxMar 22ERE

W2-1ExcelsiorMar 15ERE

D3-3NAC BredaMar 8ERE

L0-2TwenteMar 1ERE

Squad & Injuries

Sparta Rotterdam

25 available

Attackers5

Midfielders7

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Feyenoord

8 out

Attackers9

Midfielders2/11

×#7

Defenders4/12

×#15

×#2

×#15

×#2

Goalkeeper3

T. Beelen — Broken Leg

#15 J. Bos — Knee Injury

#7 J. Moder — Knee Injury

#2 B. Nieuwkoop — Injury

T. Beelen — Broken Leg

#15 J. Bos — Knee Injury

#7 J. Moder — Knee Injury

#2 B. Nieuwkoop — Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 1.5

Draw or Feyenoord

Feyenoord

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Sparta Rotterdam to score

Result3 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 0.5

Sparta Rotterdam to score

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Sparta Rotterdam

Feyenoord

Squad & Injuries

Sparta Rotterdam

Feyenoord