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Predictions graded

Fredrikstad1Bodo/Glimt2

HT 0–1Fri 4 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges6–186%

PossPossession 42%–58%ShotsShots 9–17On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 3–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 17:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Bodø/Glimt are strong favourites to beat Fredrikstad, but the odds are too short to offer value on the outright or double chance.

The only positive edge is Over 1.5 first-half goals at 1.95, where our 58% estimate beats the implied 51.3%. Avoid the away win, double chance, and over 2.5 goals markets due to negative value.

Context

Bodo/Glimt are first in the Eliteserien with 44 points from 18 matches, 18 points ahead of Fredrikstad in seventh.
Bodo/Glimt have won their last five league matches, including a 4-2 home win over Rosenborg on 30 August. Fredrikstad have also won four straight league games, but the gap in the table shows the difference in consistency this season. Bodo/Glimt's away record is strong with six wins in nine matches, while Fredrikstad have won five of eight at home.
- Bodo/Glimt are first with 44 points, 18 ahead of Fredrikstad in seventh.
- Bodo/Glimt have won their last five league matches, most recently beating Rosenborg 4-2 on 30 August.
- Fredrikstad have won four straight league matches, including a 4-1 win at Lillestrom on 30 August.
The teams have met five times in the Eliteserien since April 2024.
Bodo/Glimt won the most recent meeting 1-0 at home on 17 July 2026, and also won 5-0 at home on 30 November 2025. Fredrikstad's only win in this span came at home on 16 July 2025, a 1-0 victory. Bodo/Glimt have kept clean sheets in three of the five matches, showing their defensive control in this fixture.
- Bodo/Glimt won 1-0 at home on 17 July 2026.
- Bodo/Glimt won 5-0 at home on 30 November 2025.
- Fredrikstad won 1-0 at home on 16 July 2025.
Fredrikstad midfielder S. Sorlokk returned from injury to start and captain the side in the 30 August league win at Lillestrøm.
His return gives Fredrikstad a recent starting midfield option for Bodø/Glimt’s visit. G. Wesseh had started in the same position in two of the four recent fixtures with available lineups when Sorlokk did not start, so his availability may alter home-team selection.
- Fredrikstad said Sørløkk had been out injured since the post-summer restart before making his comeback against Eidsvold IF on 22 August.
- The club named Sørløkk captain and a starter for the 30 August Eliteserien match at Lillestrøm.
- G. Wesseh started in the same position in 2 of the 4 recent team fixtures with available lineups when S. Sorlokk did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 17:07 · Europe/BucharestFredrikstad FK — Sørløkk from start at Åråsenwww.fredrikstadfk.no · 30 Aug 2026Fredrikstad FK — Through to the second round at Eidsvollwww.fredrikstadfk.no · 22 Aug 2026
Bodo/Glimt have the best goal difference in the league at +33.
Bodo/Glimt's attacking output is far above Fredrikstad's, with 47 goals in 18 matches compared to Fredrikstad's 22. Bodo/Glimt also concede fewer, with 14 goals against compared to Fredrikstad's 28. This suggests Bodo/Glimt can control the match and create more chances, especially given their 59.4% average possession.
- Bodo/Glimt average 3.1 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match.
- Fredrikstad average 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match.
- Bodo/Glimt have a +33 goal difference, Fredrikstad -6.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bodo/Glimt

1.30fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Bodo/Glimt's superior league position, away form, and recent H2H dominance make them clear favourites, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Bodo/Glimt

1.09fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 91.7%

0.0ppshort

Bodo/Glimt's low loss rate and Fredrikstad's inconsistency make a Bodo/Glimt win or draw highly likely, but the odds are too short to offer value.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Bodo/Glimt

1.70fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Bodo/Glimt's dominant first-half performances make them likely to lead at the break, but the odds are too short to offer value.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Bodo/Glimt/Bodo/Glimt

1.88fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 53.2%

0.0ppshort

Bodo/Glimt's ability to lead early and maintain leads makes HT/FT Bodo/Glimt a strong possibility, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.38fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Bodo/Glimt's high scoring rate and Fredrikstad's moderate defensive record support over 2.5 goals.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Fredrikstad's home scoring ability and Bodo/Glimt's occasional away defensive lapses make both teams scoring plausible.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's superior league position, away form, and recent H2H dominance make them clear favourites.
- Bodo/Glimt are 1st with 44 points, 14 wins in 18; Fredrikstad are 7th with 26 points.
- Bodo/Glimt away record: 6W 2D 1L, 19 goals scored, 10 conceded.
- Fredrikstad home record: 5W 1D 2L, 11 goals scored, 8 conceded.
- H2H last 5: Bodo/Glimt won 3, drew 1, lost 1; most recent meeting Bodo/Glimt won 1-0.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBodo/GlimtEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's low loss rate and Fredrikstad's inconsistency make a Bodo/Glimt win or draw highly likely.
- Bodo/Glimt have lost only 2 of 18 league matches this season.
- Fredrikstad have lost 8 of 18 matches, including 2 home losses.
- Bodo/Glimt away record: 6W 2D 1L.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Bodo/GlimtEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's dominant first-half performances make them likely to lead at the break.
- Bodo/Glimt led at half-time in 80% of recent matches.
- Fredrikstad trailed at half-time in 33% of recent matches.
- Bodo/Glimt average 1.5 first-half goals vs Fredrikstad's 0.8.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBodo/GlimtEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's ability to lead early and maintain leads makes HT/FT Bodo/Glimt a strong possibility.
- Bodo/Glimt led at half-time in 80% of recent matches and won 14 of 18 overall.
- Fredrikstad lost 8 of 18 matches, often after trailing at half-time.
- H2H: Bodo/Glimt won 3 of last 5, including 1-0 away.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostBodo/Glimt/Bodo/GlimtEstimated chance50%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's high scoring rate and Fredrikstad's moderate defensive record support over 2.5 goals.
- Bodo/Glimt average 3.1 goals scored per match in recent form.
- Fredrikstad average 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match.
- Bodo/Glimt's last 5 league matches: 4, 2, 4, 3, 3 goals scored.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fredrikstad's home scoring ability and Bodo/Glimt's occasional away defensive lapses make both teams scoring plausible.
- Fredrikstad have scored in 7 of their last 8 home matches.
- Bodo/Glimt have conceded in 4 of their last 6 away matches.
- Fredrikstad average 1.5 goals per match overall.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's strong first-half scoring and Fredrikstad's tendency to concede early support over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Bodo/Glimt average 1.5 first-half goals per match.
- Fredrikstad average 0.8 first-half goals and 0.7 first-half goals conceded.
- Bodo/Glimt led at half-time in 80% of recent matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's solid away defence and Fredrikstad's occasional home scoring struggles give a moderate chance of an away clean sheet.
- Bodo/Glimt have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 10 matches.
- Fredrikstad have failed to score in 3 of their last 8 home matches.
- Bodo/Glimt conceded only 10 goals in 9 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostFredrikstad not to scoreEstimated chance40%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's high corner count and Fredrikstad's moderate numbers suggest a combined total over 9.5 is possible.
- Bodo/Glimt average 6.7 corners per match, Fredrikstad average 3.7.
- Bodo/Glimt's recent matches: 12, 4, 2, 8, 0, 10, 6, 10, 12 corners.
- Fredrikstad's recent matches: 3, 2, 4, 6, 3, 0, 8, 2, 5, 5, 3 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate shots on target, with Bodo/Glimt particularly prolific, making over 8.5 total shots on target likely.
- Bodo/Glimt average 6.1 shots on target per match, Fredrikstad average 4.0.
- Bodo/Glimt's recent shots on target: 7, 9, 4, 3, 7, 8, 9, 5, 6, 8.
- Fredrikstad's recent shots on target: 9, 4, 3, 5, 4, 0, 1, 5, 7, 4, 2.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 77% leaves no cushion vs our 68% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Bodo/Glimt has been highly reliable when projected to win

Bodo/Glimt has fulfilled 8 of 9 win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 63.1% against an expected 5.7 fulfilled. The only miss was a draw against Rosenborg, while all other projections resulted in wins. Current probability of 68% sits within the historical range of 45-78%.

Recent evidence for Bodo/Glimt9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Eliteserien