USL League OneFull time

Predictions graded

Fort Wayne FC2Richmond Kickers0

HT 1–0Wed 2 Sept 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges4–267%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 16:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Fort Wayne are likely to win or draw (80% probability) and Richmond are unlikely to keep a clean sheet (85%), but the odds on all major markets are overpriced relative to our model.

The best actionable takeaway is to avoid betting on this match, as the market has already priced in Fort Wayne's home advantage and Richmond's away struggles, leaving no value.

Context

Richmond Kickers are bottom of USL League One with 19 points from 22 matches.
Their away record is the worst in the league: 1 win, 1 draw, and 9 losses in 11 games, with 30 goals conceded. Fort Wayne have been strong at home, losing only 2 of 9 matches and conceding just 7 goals. This contrast suggests Richmond will likely struggle to get a result, though their recent away form includes a 2-1 win at Greenville Triumph on July 11, showing they can occasionally compete.
- Richmond Kickers away record: 1 win, 1 draw, 9 losses in 11 matches, 9 goals scored, 30 conceded.
- Fort Wayne home record: 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses in 9 matches, 14 goals scored, 7 conceded.
The teams met once this season in USL League One.
Fort Wayne won 2-0 at Richmond on June 20, with both goals coming in the first half. That result shows Fort Wayne can control this matchup, but it was over two months ago and Richmond have changed some results since, so it is not a guarantee of another win.
- June 20, 2026: Richmond Kickers 0-2 Fort Wayne (USL League One).
Fort Wayne FC attacker L. Ricol has left the club.
His confirmed transfer to San Antonio FC removes a forward option for this match. Fort Wayne may need to adjust its front-line rotation without him.
- Fort Wayne announced on August 14 that it had agreed to transfer Ricol to San Antonio FC.
- Fort Wayne’s match report on August 29 described Ricol as now playing for San Antonio FC.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 16:36 · Europe/BucharestFort Wayne FC transfer announcementwww.fortwaynefc.com · 14 Aug 2026Fort Wayne FC Portland match reportwww.fortwaynefc.com · 30 Aug 2026
Richmond Kickers have struggled defensively all season.
They have trailed at halftime in 53% of matches and conceded 1.1 goals per first half on average. Fort Wayne score 0.9 first-half goals per game and led at halftime in 47% of their matches. This pattern suggests Fort Wayne may take an early lead, but Richmond's recent 2-1 win over NY Cosmos on August 5 shows they can start well at times.
- Richmond Kickers trailing at halftime: 53% of matches.
- Richmond Kickers average first-half goals conceded: 1.1.
- Fort Wayne leading at halftime: 47% of matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Fort Wayne FC

1.48fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Fort Wayne's home record and Richmond's away struggles support a home lean, but the odds imply a much higher probability than our model suggests.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Fort Wayne FC or Draw

1.15fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 87%

−7.0ppshort

Fort Wayne's home unbeaten rate is 78%, but the odds imply 87%, leaving no value.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.48fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Richmond's leaky away defense and Fort Wayne's home scoring ability point to a match with at least three goals.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Fort Wayne's tendency to score early and Richmond's habit of conceding before the break make a first-half goal likely.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Fort Wayne FC to score

1.07fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 93.5%

0.0ppshort

Richmond's away defense rarely keeps clean sheets, and Fort Wayne consistently scores at home.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fort Wayne's strong home form and Richmond's poor away record, combined with the recent H2H win, give the home side a clear edge.
- Fort Wayne home record: 4W-3D-2L, 14 goals for, 7 against in 9 matches
- Richmond away record: 1W-1D-9L, 9 goals for, 30 against in 11 matches
- H2H last meeting: Fort Wayne won 2-0 away at Richmond on 2026-06-20
- Fort Wayne overall goal difference +5 vs Richmond -22
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFort Wayne FCEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Richmond's away struggles make a Fort Wayne win or draw highly likely, supported by Fort Wayne's solid home form.
- Fort Wayne home unbeaten rate: 7 of 9 matches (4W-3D)
- Richmond away losses: 9 of 11 matches
- Richmond away points per game: 0.36
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFort Wayne FC or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fort Wayne's first-half dominance and Richmond's early struggles suggest the home side may lead at the interval.
- Fort Wayne leading at half time in 47% of matches
- Richmond trailing at half time in 53% of matches
- Fort Wayne first half goal difference at home: +0.7 per game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonFort Wayne FCEstimated chance45%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Richmond's leaky away defense and Fort Wayne's home scoring ability point to a match with at least three goals.
- Fort Wayne home matches average 2.33 total goals (14 for, 7 against in 9)
- Richmond away matches average 3.55 total goals (9 for, 30 against in 11)
- Richmond away conceded 2.73 goals per game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown they can score, and Richmond's defensive frailty on the road increases the chance of both finding the net.
- Fort Wayne home scored in 8 of 9 matches
- Richmond away scored in 7 of 11 matches
- Richmond away conceded in 10 of 11 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fort Wayne's tendency to score early and Richmond's habit of conceding before the break make a first-half goal likely.
- Fort Wayne first half goals per game: 0.9 overall, 1.0 at home (9 in 9)
- Richmond first half goals conceded per game: 1.1 overall, 1.27 away (14 in 11)
- Richmond trailing at half time in 53% of matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Richmond's defensive lapses often continue after the break, and Fort Wayne can add to their tally in the second half.
- Fort Wayne second half goals per game: 0.6 (total 1.5 - 0.9 first half)
- Richmond second half goals conceded per game: 1.0 (total 2.1 - 1.1 first half)
- Richmond away second half goals conceded: 1.45 per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fort Wayne's solid home defense and Richmond's low away scoring output give a moderate chance of a home clean sheet.
- Fort Wayne home clean sheets: 3 in 9 matches
- Richmond away failed to score in 4 of 11 matches
- Richmond away goals per game: 0.82
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonRichmond Kickers not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Richmond's away defense rarely keeps clean sheets, and Fort Wayne consistently scores at home.
- Richmond away clean sheets: 1 in 11 matches
- Fort Wayne home failed to score in only 1 of 9 matches
- Fort Wayne home goals per game: 1.56
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFort Wayne FC to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fort Wayne's defensive solidity at home and Richmond's away scoring struggles make a home win without conceding possible.
- Fort Wayne home wins to nil: 2 in 9 matches
- Richmond away losses to nil: 4 in 11 matches
- Richmond away scoring rate: 64%
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonYesEstimated chance30%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Odds imply 68% probability, far above our 55% estimate; no value and likely overpriced.

Prediction history

Fort Wayne FC has been highly reliable when projected to win

Fort Wayne FC has fulfilled 3 of 5 win predictions, a 60% success rate. The average estimated probability was 44%, with an expected 2.2 fulfilled predictions, indicating they have outperformed expectations. All three wins came when playing at home, while both misses were draws.

Recent evidence for Fort Wayne FC5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

19 Jul·USL League One