Primera NacionalFull time

Predictions graded

CA Los Andes0CA Acassuso0

HT 0–0Mon 31 Aug 2026, 22:00 Predictions graded

Predictions12–286%

Edges6–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 16:50 · Europe/Bucharest

Expect a low-scoring, tight match with a draw the most likely single outcome (38% model probability).

The only positive betting edge is on the draw at odds around 3.10 (+6 points), while under 2.5 goals is highly probable but offers no value at current prices.

Context

Los Andes sit 10th in Group 1 with 33 points from 25 matches, but their recent results have been poor.
They lost 0-1 at Chaco For Ever on 22 August, 0-3 at Temperley on 16 August, 1-2 at home to Ferro Carril Oeste on 9 August, and 0-1 at Central Norte on 2 August. Those four defeats included only one goal scored, so their attack has been quiet. Acassuso may face less pressure than the table suggests, but Los Andes' home record of four wins, six draws, and three losses still gives them a base to work from.
- Lost 0-1 at Chaco For Ever on 22 August 2026.
- Lost 0-3 at Temperley on 16 August 2026.
- Lost 1-2 at home to Ferro Carril Oeste on 9 August 2026.
- Lost 0-1 at Central Norte on 2 August 2026.
Acassuso are 18th in Group 1 with 22 points from 26 matches, four points below the relegation line.
Their away record is one win, four draws, and eight losses in 13 matches, with eight goals scored and 19 conceded. Recent away results include a 1-4 loss at Deportivo Moron on 9 August and a 0-0 draw at San Miguel on 26 July. That poor away form makes this match difficult for them, even against a struggling home team.
- Away record: 1 win, 4 draws, 8 losses in 13 matches.
- Lost 1-4 at Deportivo Moron on 9 August 2026.
- Drew 0-0 at San Miguel on 26 July 2026.
- Sits 18th with 22 points, four points below the relegation line.
The teams have met five times since 2023, with Los Andes winning twice and drawing three times.
On 12 April 2026, Los Andes won 1-0 at Acassuso. Before that, they drew 1-1 at home in September 2024 and won 2-0 away in May 2024. Acassuso have not beaten Los Andes in this sample, which may give the home side a small historical edge, though the current form of both teams is poor.
- Los Andes won 1-0 at Acassuso on 12 April 2026.
- Drew 1-1 at home to Acassuso on 29 September 2024.
- Won 2-0 at Acassuso on 12 May 2024.
Sergio Benet takes charge of Los Andes on an interim basis after Leonardo Lemos's departure.
Benet's first match-day staff could alter selection and defensive organisation. The club is still seeking a permanent appointment, so his approach may be provisional.
- Benet confirmed that he would manage Los Andes against Acassuso.
- He took over the first team on an interim basis after Leonardo Lemos's departure.
- Los Andes' president said the club was still seeking a medium- and long-term appointment.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 16:48 · Europe/BucharestSergio Benet confirmó que dirigirá a Los Andes el lunes ante Acassusolaunion.com.ar · 27 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

CA Los Andes or Draw

1.17fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

The market heavily favours Los Andes or Draw, but our estimate of 72% is below the implied 85%, so there is no value despite the high confidence in the outcome.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.40fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Los Andes' home matches average 1.23 total goals and their last 5 matches have 4 unders, supporting a low-scoring game.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.50fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Los Andes' 46% home clean sheet rate and Acassuso's 46% away failure-to-score rate make it likely at least one team fails to score.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.20fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average only 0.3 first-half goals per match, making a quiet opening 45 minutes highly likely.

Total Goals AwaywonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.13fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 88.5%

0.0ppshort

Acassuso's poor away scoring record and Los Andes' strong home defense make it highly likely the visitors score fewer than two goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' high draw tendencies, especially Los Andes at home, and the H2H pattern of stalemates make a draw the most likely single outcome.
- Los Andes home record: 4W-6D-3L in 13 home matches (46% draws)
- Acassuso away record: 1W-4D-8L in 13 away matches (31% draws)
- H2H last 5: 3 draws, 2 away wins (no home wins)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Los Andes' strong home unbeaten rate and Acassuso's poor away form make the hosts avoiding defeat highly probable.
- Los Andes home record: 4W-6D-3L (77% unbeaten at home)
- Acassuso away record: 1W-4D-8L (only 1 away win all season)
- H2H: Los Andes unbeaten in last 5 vs Acassuso (2W-3D)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCA Los Andes or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high draw rate at half-time for both teams and low first-half scoring make a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Los Andes first-half results: 20% leading, 40% trailing, 40% drawing
- Acassuso first-half results: 20% leading, 33% trailing, 47% drawing
- Both teams average only 0.3 first-half goals
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combination of both teams' draw tendencies and the H2H stalemate pattern supports a draw at both intervals, though confidence is low due to the specific double requirement.
- Los Andes home: 46% draws overall, 40% draws at half-time
- Acassuso away: 31% draws overall, 47% draws at half-time
- H2H: 3 draws in last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/DrawEstimated chance22%

Goals8 of 10 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Los Andes' defensive solidity at home and their recent low-scoring trend strongly support a low-scoring match.
- Los Andes home matches average 1.23 total goals (10 scored, 6 conceded in 13)
- Acassuso away matches average 2.08 total goals (8 scored, 19 conceded in 13)
- Los Andes last 5 matches: 4 with under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Los Andes' strong home defensive record and Acassuso's away scoring struggles make it likely at least one team fails to score.
- Los Andes home: 6 clean sheets in 13 home matches (46%)
- Acassuso away: failed to score in 6 of 13 away matches (46%)
- Los Andes last 5: 3 clean sheets
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making a quiet opening 45 minutes highly likely.
- Los Andes first-half goals: 0.3 per match, first-half conceded: 0.5
- Acassuso first-half goals: 0.3 per match, first-half conceded: 0.5
- Combined first-half average: 1.6 goals per match, but recent form shows lower
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The overall low-scoring trend extends to the second half, with both teams averaging under a goal after the break.
- Los Andes second-half goals: 0.5 per match (0.8 total - 0.3 first half)
- Acassuso second-half goals: 0.4 per match (0.7 total - 0.3 first half)
- Combined second-half average: 0.9 goals per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Los Andes' strong home defensive record and Acassuso's away scoring struggles give the hosts a solid chance of a clean sheet.
- Los Andes home: 6 clean sheets in 13 matches (46%)
- Acassuso away: failed to score in 6 of 13 matches (46%)
- Los Andes last 5 home matches: 3 clean sheets
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCA Acassuso not to scoreEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Acassuso's poor away defensive record makes it unlikely they will keep a clean sheet against a Los Andes side that scores regularly at home.
- Acassuso away: only 2 clean sheets in 13 away matches (15%)
- Los Andes home: scored in 9 of 13 home matches (69%)
- Acassuso conceded in 11 of 13 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCA Los Andes to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Los Andes' low home scoring rate and Acassuso's decent away defensive numbers suggest the hosts may score fewer than two goals.
- Los Andes home: 10 goals in 13 matches (0.77 per match)
- Los Andes last 5 home matches: 4 with under 1.5 goals
- Acassuso away: concede 1.46 goals per match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonCA Los Andes under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Acassuso's poor away scoring record and Los Andes' strong home defense make it highly likely the visitors score fewer than two goals.
- Acassuso away: 8 goals in 13 matches (0.62 per match)
- Acassuso failed to score in 6 of 13 away matches
- Los Andes home: concede only 0.46 goals per match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonCA Acassuso under 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
If Los Andes win, it is likely to be without conceding given their home defensive strength, but the overall win probability is moderate.
- Los Andes home: 4 wins, 3 with clean sheets (75% of wins to nil)
- Acassuso away: 1 win, 0 clean sheets
- Los Andes home clean sheet rate: 46%
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostYesEstimated chance25%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Acassuso's inability to keep clean sheets away from home makes a win to nil extremely unlikely.
- Acassuso away: 1 win, 0 clean sheets
- Acassuso away clean sheet rate: 15%
- Los Andes home: scored in 69% of matches
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance85%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 52% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

CA Los Andes: Under 2.5 goals has been unreliable recently

CA Los Andes has fulfilled 2 of 5 Under 2.5 goals predictions, a 40% success rate. The average estimated probability was 76.4%, but only 40% of predictions matched, indicating underperformance relative to expectations. The current prediction of 68% is below the historical range of 72-80%, suggesting lower confidence than past projections.

Recent evidence for CA Los Andes5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Primera Nacional