Liverpool2Nottingham Forest2

HT 0–1Sat 29 Aug 2026, 11:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 69%–31%ShotsShots 13–12On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 3–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Aug 2026, 18:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Liverpool are overpriced at 1.48 given their mediocre home form and Forest's two consecutive Anfield wins.

The best value is Forest or Draw at 2.63 (55% model probability vs 38% implied), while Over 2.5 goals and first-half Over 0.5 should be avoided due to negative edges.

Context

Liverpool began the Premier League season with a 2-2 draw at Newcastle on 23 August 2026.
Liverpool's recent defensive record is poor: they have conceded in each of their last five competitive matches, including two goals in that opener. This suggests Nottingham Forest may find chances, but the sample includes pre-season friendlies and a Champions League tie, so the pattern is not fully reliable for league play.
- Liverpool drew 2-2 at Newcastle on 23 August 2026, conceding twice.
- Liverpool lost 3-2 to Monaco in a friendly on 9 August 2026, conceding three goals.
- Liverpool lost 4-2 to Leeds in a Summer Series match on 2 August 2026, conceding four goals.
Nottingham Forest lost 1-0 at home to Leeds on 22 August 2026 in their first league match of the season.
Forest's attack has been quiet: they failed to score in that opener and have scored only once in their last three away matches, including a 1-0 friendly loss at Barcelona and a 1-0 friendly loss at Udinese. This suggests they may struggle to break down Liverpool, but the away sample is small and includes pre-season games.
- Nottingham Forest lost 1-0 at home to Leeds on 22 August 2026, failing to score.
- Nottingham Forest lost 1-0 away to Barcelona in a friendly on 8 August 2026.
- Nottingham Forest lost 1-0 away to Udinese in a friendly on 8 August 2026.
Liverpool attacker F. Chiesa started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
Chiesa's confirmed absence removes a forward option from Liverpool's matchday selection and reduces wide-area cover. The team must adjust its attacking substitutions without him.
- Liverpool confirmed that Federico Chiesa is currently unavailable.
- Andoni Iraola said Chiesa felt a small muscle injury in his back during the pre-season match against Como.
- This Is Anfield reported on August 28 that Chiesa would again be absent against Forest.
- F. Chiesa started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Aug 2026, 23:39 · Europe/BucharestFederico Chiesa injury updatewww.liverpoolfc.com · 27 Aug 2026Liverpool vs. Forest: Team News, Likely Lineups & How to Watchwww.thisisanfield.com · 28 Aug 2026
Liverpool and Nottingham Forest have met five times in the Premier League since March 2024.
Forest won 3-0 at Anfield on 22 November 2025 and 1-0 at home on 14 September 2024, with Liverpool winning 1-0 at the City Ground on 22 February 2026. This recent record shows Forest can compete with Liverpool, but the most recent meeting went Liverpool's way.
- Nottingham Forest won 3-0 at Liverpool on 22 November 2025.
- Nottingham Forest won 1-0 at home against Liverpool on 14 September 2024.
- Liverpool won 1-0 at Nottingham Forest on 22 February 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent goal averages and H2H history suggest a moderately high-scoring game, though Forest's defensive solidity in some matches adds uncertainty.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.70fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistent scoring records and leaky defenses, making BTTS a reasonable expectation.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score in the first half, and H2H history supports early goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Liverpool's home advantage and slightly better overall form give them the edge, but Forest's recent Anfield wins and new-manager uncertainty for both sides temper confidence.
- Liverpool average 1.6 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match over last 15; Forest average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
- Liverpool have won 2 of last 5 home league matches (W2 D2 L1); Forest have lost 2 of last 3 away league matches.
- H2H: Forest won last two league visits to Anfield (0-1, 0-3), but Liverpool won latest overall meeting 1-0 away in Feb 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLiverpoolEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Liverpool's home form and Forest's away struggles support a Liverpool win or draw, but Forest's Anfield record prevents higher confidence.
- Liverpool have avoided defeat in 4 of last 5 home league matches (W2 D2 L1).
- Forest have lost 2 of last 3 away league matches, including a 0-4 defeat at Aston Villa.
- H2H: Forest have won 2 of last 5 meetings, but Liverpool have won 2 and drawn 1.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLiverpool or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have significant draw rates at half-time, but Forest's higher leading percentage makes this outcome uncertain.
- Liverpool led at half-time in 33% of matches, trailed in 27%, drew in 40%.
- Forest led at half-time in 47% of matches, trailed in 27%, drew in 26%.
- H2H: 2 of last 5 meetings were level at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
This specific sequence is uncommon, but Liverpool's ability to improve in second halves and Forest's occasional fade make it a low-probability but possible outcome.
- Liverpool have drawn at half-time in 40% of matches and won 33% overall.
- Forest have drawn at half-time in 26% and lost 33% overall.
- H2H: No direct pattern of draw at HT and Liverpool win at FT in last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/LiverpoolEstimated chance15%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent goal averages and H2H history suggest a moderately high-scoring game, though Forest's defensive solidity in some matches adds uncertainty.
- Liverpool's last 15 matches average 3.3 total goals (1.6 scored + 1.7 conceded).
- Forest's last 15 matches average 2.6 total goals (1.3 scored + 1.3 conceded).
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings had over 2.5 goals, including 0-3 and 1-1.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and leaky defenses, making BTTS a reasonable expectation.
- Liverpool have scored in 12 of last 15 matches; Forest have scored in 10 of last 15.
- Liverpool have conceded in 11 of last 15; Forest have conceded in 9 of last 15.
- H2H: Both teams scored in 2 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and H2H history supports early goals.
- Liverpool average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded per match.
- Forest average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded per match.
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been productive in H2H, but both teams' second-half scoring rates are moderate, leading to low confidence.
- Liverpool average 0.9 second-half goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match (derived from totals).
- Forest average 0.6 second-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match.
- H2H: Second-half goals occurred in 4 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages suggest around 9-10 corners, making over 9.5 a coin flip.
- Liverpool average 6.2 corners for and 3.8 corners against per match (total 10.0).
- Forest average 3.5 corners for and 5.0 corners against per match (total 8.5).
- H2H: Corner data not available for all meetings, but recent matches show moderate totals.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target averages are near the line, making this a low-confidence prediction.
- Liverpool average 4.7 shots on target for and 4.3 against per match (total 9.0).
- Forest average 3.8 shots on target for and 4.5 against per match (total 8.3).
- H2H: Shot data limited, but both teams generate moderate shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate discipline records, but the line is close to the combined average, making this a low-confidence call.
- Liverpool average 1.7 yellow cards per match; Forest average 1.5 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.2 per match.
- H2H: No card data available for recent meetings.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 68% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; the price already reflects the directional read and ignores Forest's Anfield record.

Prediction history

Liverpool has struggled to convert win projections recently

Liverpool fulfilled 1 of 5 win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 51.6% versus an expected 2.6 fulfilled. The missed predictions included two draws and two losses, and the current 45% probability sits within the historical range of 42-65%.

Recent evidence for Liverpool5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 May·Premier League