AFC Eskilstuna2Sollentuna FK1

HT 2–1Sat 29 Aug 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–188%

Edges5–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Aug 2026, 16:14 · Europe/Bucharest

AFC Eskilstuna are in better form and have a new-manager bounce, but the market is efficient: no clear value on the away win, BTTS, or Over 2.5.

The double chance (AFC or Draw) at 1.25 is the safest play, though it offers no edge. Avoid the first-half Over 0.5 at 1.25, which is heavily overpriced.

Context

AFC Eskilstuna sit 5th in Ettan - Norra with 31 points from 18 matches. Their recent form is the strongest in the league.
They have won five consecutive league games, including a 3-0 away win at Karlberg on 23 August and a 1-0 home win over Hammarby Talang on 14 August. This run shows they are scoring regularly and keeping clean sheets. Sollentuna have lost three of their last five league matches, so the home side's current form is a clear advantage.
- AFC Eskilstuna have won their last five league matches.
- They beat Karlberg 3-0 away on 23 August 2026.
- They beat Hammarby Talang 1-0 at home on 14 August 2026.
- Sollentuna have lost three of their last five league matches.
The two teams met earlier this season in Ettan - Norra.
AFC Eskilstuna won 4-1 at Sollentuna on 26 June 2026, with a 2-1 lead at half-time. That result is part of a pattern where the away team has won three of the last five meetings. However, Sollentuna won the most recent home fixture between the sides 4-3 in August 2025, so the head-to-head is not one-sided.
- AFC Eskilstuna won 4-1 away at Sollentuna on 26 June 2026.
- Sollentuna won 4-3 at home against AFC Eskilstuna on 25 August 2025.
- The away team has won three of the last five meetings.
Sollentuna are 12th in the table with 20 points, nine points above the relegation line.
Their away record is 2 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses in 9 matches, with 9 goals scored and 11 conceded. AFC Eskilstuna have a home record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, scoring 7 and conceding 10. Sollentuna's away form is not disastrous, but they rarely win on the road, which could limit their chances here.
- Sollentuna have won 2, drawn 5, and lost 2 away league matches this season.
- AFC Eskilstuna have won 4, drawn 2, and lost 3 home league matches this season.
- Sollentuna have scored 9 and conceded 11 in away matches.
AFC Eskilstuna average 0.9 first-half goals per match, while Sollentuna concede 0.9 first-half goals per match.
AFC Eskilstuna have led at half-time in 40% of their matches and trailed in only 13%. Sollentuna have trailed at half-time in 40% of their matches and led in only 13%. This suggests the home side often starts strongly, while Sollentuna tend to fall behind early. That pattern could put Sollentuna under pressure from the start.
- AFC Eskilstuna have led at half-time in 40% of league matches.
- Sollentuna have trailed at half-time in 40% of league matches.
- AFC Eskilstuna average 0.9 first-half goals per match.
- Sollentuna concede 0.9 first-half goals per match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Sollentuna FK

1.78fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 56.2%

−1.2ppshort

AFC Eskilstuna's strong recent form and higher league position, combined with a dominant H2H win, give them a clear edge despite playing away.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Sollentuna FK

1.25fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

AFC Eskilstuna's consistent form and Sollentuna's struggles make the double chance a high-probability safety net.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.55fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Historical H2H pattern and both teams' scoring records support both teams finding the net.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.57fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

The H2H trend and both teams' recent goal involvement suggest a decent chance of over 2.5 goals.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
AFC Eskilstuna's strong recent form and higher league position, combined with a dominant H2H win, give them a clear edge despite playing away.
- AFC Eskilstuna have won their last 5 league matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding 2.
- AFC Eskilstuna are 5th with 31 points; Sollentuna are 12th with 20 points.
- AFC Eskilstuna won the most recent H2H 4-1 away on 26 Jun 2026.
- Sollentuna have only 2 wins in their last 10 league matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAFC EskilstunaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
AFC Eskilstuna's consistent form and Sollentuna's struggles make the double chance a high-probability safety net.
- AFC Eskilstuna have lost only 1 of their last 10 league matches.
- Sollentuna have won only 2 of their last 10 league matches.
- AFC Eskilstuna have a better away record (5W 2D 2L) than Sollentuna's home record (2W 3D 4L).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAFC Eskilstuna or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AFC Eskilstuna's tendency to start strong gives them a slight edge in the first half, but the probability remains low.
- AFC Eskilstuna led at half-time in 40% of their matches.
- Sollentuna trailed at half-time in 40% of their matches.
- AFC Eskilstuna have scored first in 4 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonAFC EskilstunaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AFC Eskilstuna's ability to control matches from the start supports this outcome, but it is not a high-probability event.
- AFC Eskilstuna have led at half-time and won in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Sollentuna have trailed at half-time and lost in 3 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonAFC Eskilstuna/AFC EskilstunaEstimated chance30%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H pattern and both teams' scoring records support both teams finding the net.
- BTTS landed in each of the last five H2H meetings.
- AFC Eskilstuna have scored in 14 of their last 15 matches.
- Sollentuna have scored in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- Sollentuna have conceded in 13 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H trend and both teams' recent goal involvement suggest a decent chance of over 2.5 goals.
- Four of the last five H2H meetings produced at least three goals.
- AFC Eskilstuna's last 5 matches averaged 2.8 total goals.
- Sollentuna's last 5 matches averaged 2.6 total goals.
- AFC Eskilstuna average 1.9 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- AFC Eskilstuna average 0.9 first-half goals scored.
- Sollentuna average 0.9 first-half goals conceded.
- In 4 of AFC Eskilstuna's last 5 matches, there was a first-half goal.
- In 4 of Sollentuna's last 5 matches, there was a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is less predictable, but both teams' tendencies provide a modest lean toward over 1.5.
- AFC Eskilstuna average 1.0 second-half goals scored.
- Sollentuna average 0.8 second-half goals conceded.
- Recent H2H matches have seen goals in both halves.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner data, this is a speculative pick based on typical match dynamics.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Both teams average around 5 corners per match based on league norms.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lacking specific discipline data, this is a neutral estimate based on league averages.
- Card data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Ettan Norra matches average around 4 cards per game.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%