Draw
Market 43.5% · BetBugs 45%
The predictor's 45% estimate is slightly above the 43% implied by odds of 2.30, giving a marginal edge on the first-half draw.
Liga ProFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Mushuc Runa are favored at home, but the odds (1.53) offer no value—the model sees only a 45% win probability.
The only marginal edge is the first-half draw at 2.30 (+2pts), while Under 2.5 goals is close to fair. Avoid the home win and double chance; expect a low-scoring, tight contest.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 1
Market 43.5% · BetBugs 45%
The predictor's 45% estimate is slightly above the 43% implied by odds of 2.30, giving a marginal edge on the first-half draw.
Other edges · 5
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
Mushuc RunaBetBugs 45% · Market 65.4%
The predictor's 45% estimate is well below the 65% implied by odds of 1.53, so there is no value on the home win despite the home advantage narrative.
BetBugs 75% · Market 88.5%
The predictor's 75% estimate is below the 88% implied by odds of 1.13, so the double chance is overpriced and offers no value.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 65% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; the price already reflects the home advantage narrative and offers negative value.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mushuc Runa | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 32-34 | 33 |
| 15 | Delfin SCRelegation Playoffs | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 17-28 | 24 |

