Draw or Mushuc Runa
BetBugs 75% · Market 80%
Mushuc Runa have avoided defeat in 11 of 12 H2Hs, and both teams' recent form includes frequent draws, making a double chance on the away side highly probable.
Copa EcuadorFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Mushuc Runa's historical dominance (7 wins, 4 draws in 12 H2Hs) and Gualaceo's low scoring output point to a tight, low-scoring cup tie.
The best value lies in under 1.5 first-half goals, while the double chance (Draw or Mushuc Runa) is safe but offers no edge. Avoid backing Mushuc Runa to win outright at odds around 2.00, as our model sees only a 45% chance.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Other edges · 3
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 75% · Market 80%
Mushuc Runa have avoided defeat in 11 of 12 H2Hs, and both teams' recent form includes frequent draws, making a double chance on the away side highly probable.
BetBugs 75% · Market 75.2%
Both teams average well under 1.0 first-half goals and 4 of last 5 H2Hs had under 1.5 first-half goals, making a tight start highly likely.
BetBugs 60% · Market 63.7%
Moderate scoring rates and 3 of last 5 H2Hs under 2.5 goals suggest a low-scoring cup tie, though edge is marginal.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

