Debrecen2MTK Budapest2

HT 1–2Fri 28 Aug 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–562%

Edges6–460%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 17–14On targetOn target 7–7CornersCorners 14–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 04:15 · Europe/Bucharest

MTK Budapest are the better side on form and attack, but the best value is in the double chance (Draw or MTK) at 1.75 (+11% edge) and MTK to win the second half at 3.40 (+11% edge).

Avoid over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, as the odds are too short given Debrecen's low-scoring home trend.

Context

MTK Budapest have scored 11 goals in 5 NB I matches.
- Debrecen have scored only 4 goals in 5 NB I matches.
- MTK average 2.2 goals per game compared to Debrecen's 0.8.
Debrecen lost 2 of their last 3 home NB I matches.
- They conceded 3 goals in each of those home losses.
- Their home record this season is 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss.
MTK Budapest have 2 draws from 2 away NB I matches.
- They scored 1 goal against Ujpest and 3 against Budapest Honved away.
- Their away record shows resilience but a lack of winning edge.
Debrecen 2-2 MTK Budapest on 27 Feb 2026.
- MTK Budapest won 3-0 at Debrecen on 9 Nov 2025.
- The last three H2H results are split: one win each and a draw.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
MTK Budapest's superior attacking output and Debrecen's poor home defensive record give the visitors a clear edge, supported by the standings gap.
- MTK Budapest are 4th with 8 points from 5 matches, while Debrecen are 9th with 5 points.
- MTK Budapest have scored 11 goals in 5 league games (2.2 per game), Debrecen only 4 (0.8 per game).
- Debrecen have lost 2 of their last 3 home league matches, conceding 3 goals in each of those losses.
- MTK Budapest are unbeaten away this season with 2 draws from 2 away games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMTK BudapestEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Debrecen's poor form and MTK's consistency make the away side or draw the most likely outcome, reinforced by recent H2H results.
- Debrecen have won only 1 of their last 5 league matches.
- MTK Budapest have lost only 1 of their last 5 league matches.
- The last H2H at Debrecen ended 2-2, and MTK won the previous away H2H 3-0.
- Debrecen's home record this season is 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or MTK BudapestEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by an MTK win is plausible given MTK's second-half strength and Debrecen's tendency to start slowly, but the specific sequence is low probability.
- MTK Budapest have led at half-time in 27% of matches, Debrecen in 7%.
- MTK have won 2 of their 5 league games, both after leading at half-time.
- Debrecen have drawn at half-time in 3 of their 5 league games.
- The last H2H at Debrecen was 1-1 at half-time and ended 2-2.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / MTK BudapestEstimated chance18%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into the break level, and the recent H2H supports a drawn first half.
- Debrecen have drawn at half-time in 3 of their 5 league matches.
- MTK Budapest have drawn at half-time in 2 of their 5 league matches.
- The last H2H at Debrecen was 1-1 at half-time.
- Both teams average similar first-half goal totals (0.5 vs 0.8).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
MTK's strong second-half scoring and Debrecen's second-half defensive weakness make MTK likely to win the second period.
- MTK Budapest have scored 7 of their 11 league goals in the second half.
- Debrecen have conceded 5 of their 7 league goals in the second half.
- MTK have won the second half in 3 of their 5 league games.
- Debrecen have lost the second half in 3 of their 5 league games.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostMTK BudapestEstimated chance40%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
MTK's high-scoring games and Debrecen's leaky home defense point to a match with at least three goals, supported by recent H2H goal totals.
- MTK Budapest's league matches average 3.8 total goals (11 scored, 8 conceded in 5 games).
- Debrecen's last 3 home matches produced 3, 5, and 2 goals.
- The last H2H meeting ended 2-2, and MTK won 3-0 in the previous away H2H.
- Both teams have scored in 4 of MTK's 5 league games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making BTTS likely, especially given the recent 2-2 H2H result.
- Both teams have scored in 4 of MTK Budapest's 5 league matches.
- Debrecen have scored in 3 of their last 4 home matches across all competitions.
- MTK have conceded in 4 of their 5 league games.
- The last H2H at Debrecen ended 2-2.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see first-half goals, with combined averages suggesting a high probability of at least one goal before the break.
- MTK Budapest average 0.8 first-half goals per game and concede 0.7.
- Debrecen average 0.5 first-half goals and concede 0.9.
- In 4 of MTK's 5 league games, there was at least one first-half goal.
- In 3 of Debrecen's 5 league games, there was at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open for both teams, with MTK especially productive after the break, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- MTK Budapest's matches average 2.0 second-half goals (total goals minus first-half goals).
- Debrecen's matches average 1.2 second-half goals.
- The last H2H meeting had 2 second-half goals (2-2 draw).
- MTK have scored 7 of their 11 league goals in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Debrecen's defensive record and MTK's consistent scoring make a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Debrecen have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 5 league matches.
- MTK Budapest have scored in 4 of their 5 league games.
- MTK have scored in both away league games this season.
- Debrecen conceded in 2 of their 3 home league games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMTK Budapest to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
MTK's defensive vulnerabilities and Debrecen's home scoring threat make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- MTK Budapest have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 5 league matches.
- Debrecen have scored in 3 of their last 4 home matches across all competitions.
- MTK have conceded in both away league games this season.
- The last H2H at Debrecen ended 2-2.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDebrecen to scoreEstimated chance65%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Debrecen's high corner involvement at home and MTK's moderate corner numbers suggest a total around 10, but confidence is low due to limited corner data for MTK.
- Debrecen average 6.8 corners per game and concede 5.5 (opponent corners).
- MTK Budapest average 4.0 corners per game and concede 4.8.
- Combined average corners in Debrecen matches: 12.3; in MTK matches: 8.8.
- The last H2H at Debrecen had 10 corners (Debrecen 6, MTK 4).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate disciplinary records, and the competitive nature of the match could push total cards over 3.5, but data is limited.
- Debrecen average 2.5 yellow cards per game and 0.5 red cards.
- MTK Budapest average 1.5 yellow cards per game and 0 red cards.
- Combined average yellow cards in Debrecen matches: 4.0; in MTK matches: 3.0.
- The last H2H at Debrecen had 4 yellow cards (2 each).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 18% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate for a straight win; the handicap requires a multi-goal away win which is not supported by MTK's away draws.