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Predictions graded

Tottenham5Charlton Athletic1

HT 2–0Wed 26 Aug 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions10–0100%

Edges8–0100%

PossPossession 73%–27%ShotsShots 20–6On targetOn target 11–4CornersCorners 11–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Aug 2026, 04:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Tottenham are strong favourites but offer no value at 1.22.

The best betting angles are both teams to score at 1.91 (model edge +5.6pts) and over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.00 (edge +10pts). Avoid all short-priced Tottenham markets.

Context

De Zerbi said in his 21 August press conference that he had been in post only three months and Spurs were still establishing their identity and organisation.
- Tottenham have won 3 of their last 5 competitive matches, but lost 0-3 to Brentford in their most recent league game.
- The team's home form has been mixed: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in their last 5 home matches.
On 3 August, Charlton's US ownership group engaged Oakwell Sports Advisory to sell the club.
- No direct squad impact was reported.
- Charlton have won their last three competitive matches, including a 2-1 away win at West Ham in the Championship.
Charlton average 1.3 goals per match in their last 15 matches.
- They scored in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- In their last match, they had only 22% possession but won 2-1 at West Ham with 5 shots on target.
Tottenham scored in the second half in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Tottenham's last 5 competitive matches averaged 1.6 second-half goals.
- Charlton's last 5 competitive matches averaged 1.4 second-half goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Tottenham

1.22fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Tottenham's superior league level and recent competitive form, combined with home advantage, make them strong favourites.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Tottenham or Draw

1.05fair 1.09

BetBugs 92% · Market 95%

−3.0ppshort

Tottenham's strong home record and Charlton's poor away form make a Tottenham win or draw highly likely.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Tottenham

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 65%

0.0ppshort

Tottenham's home advantage and superior quality should see them take an early lead, though Charlton's first-half resilience is noted.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Tottenham at half-time / Tottenham at full-time

1.65fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 61%

0.0ppshort

Tottenham are expected to dominate possession and create chances throughout, making a half-time/full-time double plausible.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.45fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches have trended over 2.5 goals, but the odds imply a higher probability than our model, so no value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.18fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 84.8%

0.0ppshort

The odds heavily favor over 0.5 first-half goals, but our model suggests a lower probability, making this a poor value bet.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tottenham's superior league level and recent competitive form, combined with home advantage, make them strong favourites.
- Tottenham average 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded in last 15 matches, while Charlton average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded.
- Tottenham have won 3 of their last 5 competitive matches (Premier League), including a 1-0 home win over Everton.
- Charlton have lost 2 of their last 5 competitive matches (Championship), including a 1-3 away loss to Swansea.
- Tottenham are a Premier League side facing a Championship side, indicating a significant quality gap.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTottenhamEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tottenham's strong home record and Charlton's poor away form make a Tottenham win or draw highly likely.
- Tottenham have not lost at home in their last 5 competitive matches (3 wins, 2 draws).
- Charlton have won only 1 of their last 5 away competitive matches (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses).
- Tottenham's home form in Premier League: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonTottenham or DrawEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tottenham's home advantage and superior quality should see them take an early lead, though Charlton's first-half resilience is noted.
- Tottenham have led at half-time in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Charlton have trailed at half-time in 2 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Tottenham average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded, while Charlton average 0.7 scored and 0.4 conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonTottenhamEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tottenham are expected to dominate possession and create chances throughout, making a half-time/full-time double plausible.
- Tottenham have won both halves in 2 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Charlton have lost both halves in 1 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Tottenham's home form suggests they can control the game from start to finish.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonTottenham/TottenhamEstimated chance50%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in relatively high-scoring matches recently, and Tottenham's attacking quality should create chances.
- Tottenham's last 5 competitive matches have averaged 2.8 total goals.
- Charlton's last 5 competitive matches have averaged 2.6 total goals.
- Tottenham have scored in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches, while Charlton have scored in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Charlton have shown they can score against stronger opposition, and Tottenham's defense has been inconsistent.
- Tottenham have conceded in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Charlton have scored in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Charlton average 1.3 goals scored per match in their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to find the net in the first half, and Tottenham's early pressure at home should create chances.
- Tottenham have scored a first-half goal in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Charlton have scored a first-half goal in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Tottenham average 0.7 first-half goals per match, while Charlton average 0.7 first-half goals per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The second half often opens up as Tottenham push for goals, and Charlton may tire against higher-level opposition.
- Tottenham's last 5 competitive matches have averaged 1.6 second-half goals.
- Charlton's last 5 competitive matches have averaged 1.4 second-half goals.
- Tottenham have scored in the second half in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tottenham's attacking style should generate a high corner count, though Charlton's low corner numbers add uncertainty.
- Tottenham average 7.1 corners per match in their last 15 matches.
- Charlton average 3.8 corners per match in their last 15 matches.
- Tottenham's last 5 competitive matches have averaged 10.2 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown they can test the goalkeeper, but the line is close to their combined averages.
- Tottenham average 3.9 shots on target per match, while Charlton average 4.9 shots on target per match.
- Tottenham's last 5 competitive matches have averaged 8.4 total shots on target.
- Charlton's last 5 competitive matches have averaged 9.6 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%