Serie AFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Roma4Fiorentina0

HT 1–0Mon 24 Aug 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions8–280%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 61%–39%ShotsShots 17–9On targetOn target 8–4CornersCorners 2–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 12:09 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is Both Teams to Score at 1.91, with an 8-point edge over the market.

Avoid backing Roma outright or in double chance, as the odds are too short relative to our model. Expect a competitive match with goals, but the over/under lines are efficient.

Context

Roma lost 0-3 to Brighton on 8 August.
- Roma lost 1-4 to Cardiff on 1 August.
- In their last five friendlies, Roma won only once.
Fiorentina beat Juventus 2-0 away on 17 May.
- They drew 0-0 at Genoa and 0-0 at Sassuolo in recent away matches.
- In their last five away Serie A games, they have one win, two draws, and two losses.
On 4 May 2026, Roma won 4-0 at home against Fiorentina.
- Roma led 3-0 at halftime in that match.
- Fiorentina had only one shot on target in that game.
Roma have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Fiorentina have scored in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- Fiorentina conceded in four of their last five away Serie A games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Roma

1.55fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Roma's strong home record and dominant recent H2H win give them an edge, but Fiorentina's overall quality keeps confidence medium.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Roma or Draw

1.14fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 87.7%

0.0ppshort

Roma's home resilience and Fiorentina's away struggles make a Roma loss unlikely, supporting a high-probability double chance.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Roma

2.05fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 48.8%

0.0ppshort

Roma's tendency to lead at halftime and Fiorentina's occasional slow starts give Roma a moderate edge in the first half.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.33fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average over 0.8 first-half goals and Roma led at halftime in 53% of matches, making at least one goal before the break highly likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Roma's strong home record and dominant recent H2H win give them an edge, but Fiorentina's overall quality keeps confidence medium.
- Roma won 4-0 at home vs Fiorentina in last H2H (2026-05-04)
- Roma home form: 4 wins, 1 draw in last 5 home Serie A matches
- Fiorentina away form: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses in last 5 away Serie A matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRomaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Roma's home resilience and Fiorentina's away struggles make a Roma loss unlikely, supporting a high-probability double chance.
- Roma unbeaten in 5 of last 6 home matches across all competitions
- Fiorentina have only 1 away win in last 5 Serie A away games
- H2H: Roma unbeaten in 3 of last 5 meetings at home
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRoma or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Roma's tendency to lead at halftime and Fiorentina's occasional slow starts give Roma a moderate edge in the first half.
- Roma led at halftime in 53% of matches
- Fiorentina trailed at halftime in 20% of matches
- Roma average 1.1 first-half goals vs Fiorentina's 0.5 conceded
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonRomaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Roma's ability to lead at halftime and hold on is supported by the last H2H, but Fiorentina's resilience makes this a low-confidence pick.
- Roma led at halftime in 53% of matches and won 60% of matches overall
- Fiorentina trailed at halftime in 20% and lost 20% overall
- Last H2H at Roma: Roma led 3-0 at halftime and won 4-0
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonRoma/RomaEstimated chance30%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have decent scoring averages and the last meeting was high-scoring, but Fiorentina's away defense can be solid, so confidence is medium.
- Roma average 2.1 goals scored per match overall
- Fiorentina average 1.7 goals scored per match overall
- Last H2H at Roma ended 4-0
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently find the net, and Fiorentina's away defense has been leaky, making BTTS likely.
- Roma have scored in 13 of last 15 matches
- Fiorentina have scored in 12 of last 15 matches
- Fiorentina conceded in 4 of last 5 away Serie A matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and Roma's strong first-half record suggests at least one goal before the break.
- Roma average 1.1 first-half goals per match
- Fiorentina average 0.8 first-half goals per match
- Roma led at halftime in 53% of matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half scoring average is near the line, and both teams have shown ability to score late, giving a slight edge to over.
- Roma average 1.0 second-half goals per match (total 2.1 - 1.1 first half)
- Fiorentina average 0.9 second-half goals per match (total 1.7 - 0.8 first half)
- Combined second-half average is 1.9 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner average is right at the line, making this a coin flip, but slight attacking intent could push it over.
- Roma average 5.4 corners per match, Fiorentina average 4.2
- Combined average is 9.6 corners per match
- Last H2H at Roma had 9 corners (4 for Roma, 5 for Fiorentina)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fiorentina's higher card count and the competitive nature of the fixture could lead to over 3.5 cards, but variance is high.
- Roma average 1.6 yellow cards per match, Fiorentina average 2.5
- Combined average is 4.1 yellow cards per match
- Fiorentina have received 3+ cards in 3 of last 5 matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 64.5% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Roma has been highly reliable when projected to win

Roma has fulfilled 6 of 6 recent match-winner predictions, a 100% fulfilment rate. The average estimated probability was 55.2%, yet all six projections resulted in wins, exceeding the expected 3.3 fulfilled predictions. The current prediction of 45% sits within the historical range of 40% to 72%, and Roma has performed equally well at home and away, with 3 fulfilled predictions in each location.

Recent evidence for Roma6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 May·Serie A