Umea FC0Enkopings SK0

HT 0–0Sun 23 Aug 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–325%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Aug 2026, 07:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Draw or Enköpings SK at 1.62 — our model gives it a 70% chance, an edge of +8.3 points.

Avoid Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes, and first-half Over 0.5, as the odds imply much higher probabilities than our estimates.

Context

Umeå's last five league results: LLLLL, with only two goals scored in that run.
- They sit 13th with 16 points, just above the relegation zone.
- Their home record is 2W 2D 4L, but both wins came earlier in the season.
Away record: 3W 0D 5L, with losses in three of their last four road games.
- They have failed to score in two of their last five away matches.
- Their only away wins came against lower-half teams Piteå, Järfälla, and Rågsved (cup).
The reverse fixture ended 3-1 to Enköping, with a 1-0 half-time lead.
- Umeå have not beaten Enköping in a league match since 2009.
- The only other recent meetings are from 2009, so current form matters more.
On 1 July, Enköping announced Johansson's departure over commercial and governance differences.
- The board publicly backed sporting director Ali Fares and the coaching staff.
- No player or coaching changes followed the announcement.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Combined average goals per match is 2.7 and reverse fixture produced 4 goals, but odds imply a higher probability than our model supports.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.53fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams regularly score and concede, but the odds are priced too short relative to our probability estimate.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Combined first-half goal average is 1.2, but the odds heavily favor over 0.5 and offer no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Enkopings SK's superior league position and recent H2H win, combined with Umea's five-match losing streak, make them favourites despite their poor away form.
- Enkopings SK won the reverse fixture 3-1 on 21 June 2026.
- Umea FC have lost their last 5 league matches (form LLLLL).
- Enkopings SK away record: 3W 0D 5L, but Umea home record: 2W 2D 4L.
- Umea FC sit 13th with 16 points, Enkopings SK 7th with 28 points.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEnkopings SKEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Umea's poor form and home record make them unlikely to win, so backing Enkopings SK or draw covers the most probable outcomes.
- Umea FC have lost 9 of 17 league matches this season.
- Enkopings SK have lost only 7 of 17, with 9 wins.
- Umea FC home record: 2W 2D 4L, Enkopings SK away: 3W 0D 5L.
- Umea FC are on a 5-match losing streak in the league.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Enkopings SKEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half profiles with a high draw rate, and the reverse fixture was level at half-time.
- Umea FC half-time results: 27% leading, 33% trailing, 40% drawing.
- Enkopings SK half-time results: 33% leading, 33% trailing, 34% drawing.
- Reverse fixture first half ended 1-1.
- Both teams average 0.5 first-half goals scored.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by an Enkopings SK win is plausible given Umea's tendency to start level but fade, and Enkopings SK's stronger overall record.
- Umea FC have drawn at half-time in 40% of matches.
- Enkopings SK have won 9 of 17 matches overall.
- Reverse fixture: 1-1 at HT, Enkopings SK won 3-1.
- Umea FC have lost 5 straight matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Enkopings SKEstimated chance20%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring and conceding rates, and the reverse fixture produced 4 goals, suggesting a decent chance of over 2.5 goals.
- Umea FC average 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match.
- Enkopings SK average 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match.
- Combined average goals per match: 2.7.
- Reverse fixture ended 3-1 (4 goals).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly score and concede, making BTTS a likely outcome.
- Umea FC have scored in 12 of 17 league matches (71%).
- Enkopings SK have scored in 13 of 17 league matches (76%).
- Umea FC have conceded in 14 of 17 matches (82%).
- Enkopings SK have conceded in 12 of 17 matches (71%).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, with a combined average above 1 goal, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Umea FC average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Enkopings SK average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.2.
- In the reverse fixture, first half ended 1-1.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates are moderate, but the reverse fixture saw 2 second-half goals, giving a slight lean to over 1.5.
- Umea FC average 0.8 second-half goals scored (total 1.3 - 0.5 first half).
- Enkopings SK average 0.9 second-half goals scored (1.4 - 0.5).
- Combined second-half goal average: 1.7.
- Reverse fixture had 2 second-half goals (3-1 after 1-1 HT).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner data, we rely on league average, giving a neutral 50% chance for over 9.5 corners.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- League average corners per match in Ettan Norra is typically around 9-10.
- No specific corner stats provided.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific card data, we use league average, giving a neutral 50% chance for over 3.5 cards.
- Card data is unavailable for both teams.
- League average cards per match in Ettan Norra is typically around 3-4.
- No specific discipline stats provided.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 37% vs our 45% estimate gives a +8pt edge, but the away side's poor away record (3W 0D 5L) and Umea's home wins make the single outcome too volatile; the double chance is the safer expression.

Prediction history

Umea FC has split Over 2.5 goals outcomes in recent matches

Umea FC has fulfilled 2 of 4 Over 2.5 goals predictions. The average estimated probability was 61.3%, but the matched matches averaged 57.5% while missed matches averaged 65%. At home, Umea FC has fulfilled 1 of 2 predictions, and away also 1 of 2.

Recent evidence for Umea FC4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jun·Ettan - Norra