USL League OneFull time

Predictions graded

Richmond Kickers1Portland Hearts Of Pine1

HT 0–1Sat 22 Aug 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–538%

Edges3–350%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 03:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Portland are favored by the market but our model sees only a slight edge, making the away win and double chance poor value.

The best opportunities are in goals markets, particularly Over 2.5 goals at 1.67, which is close to fair value given both teams' recent high-scoring trends.

Context

Richmond have lost 4 of their last 5 league matches, conceding 15 goals in that span.
- Sawatzky departed on June 15 and Ownby was appointed interim for the rest of the season.
- Richmond's last 5 matches averaged 3.8 total goals, showing defensive instability.
Portland's away record is 2W-4D-5L.
- They have lost 5 of their last 6 away matches.
- Portland have scored in 8 of 11 away games, but defensive issues persist.
Portland won 5-2 at Richmond on 2025-09-17.
- The other H2H meetings were a 0-0 draw and a 5-1 Portland home win.
- Richmond have not beaten Portland in their first three meetings.
Richmond's last 5 league matches averaged 3.8 total goals.
- Portland's last 5 league matches averaged 3.2 total goals.
- The most recent H2H produced 7 goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Portland Hearts Of Pine

1.53fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Portland's H2H edge and Richmond's poor recent form under interim coach Brian Ownby give the away side a slight advantage, but the odds imply a much higher probability than our estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Portland Hearts Of Pine

1.13fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 88.5%

−23.5ppshort

Richmond's home form is not dominant, and Portland's away resilience plus H2H success makes the double chance a solid play, but the odds are extremely short and offer no value.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.67fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, and the H2H history suggests goals are likely.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.48fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Both attacks have been finding the net regularly, and the defensive records of both teams are poor.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.13fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 88.5%

0.0ppshort

Richmond's tendency to concede early and Portland's ability to score in the first half make a first-half goal likely.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 1.5

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to concede late, and the H2H history shows a high-scoring second half.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Portland's historical H2H edge and Richmond's poor recent form under interim coach Brian Ownby give the away side a slight advantage.
- Portland won the most recent H2H 5-2 at Richmond on 2025-09-17.
- Richmond have lost 4 of their last 5 league matches, conceding 15 goals in that span.
- Portland's away record is 2W-4D-5L, but they have scored in 8 of 11 away games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPortland Hearts Of PineEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Richmond's home form is not dominant, and Portland's away resilience plus H2H success makes the double chance a solid play.
- Richmond have won only 4 of 9 home matches this season.
- Portland have avoided defeat in 6 of 11 away matches.
- The last H2H at Richmond ended in a 5-2 Portland win.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Portland Hearts Of PineEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to start cautiously, and the recent H2H was level at the break.
- Richmond have been level at half-time in 4 of their last 10 matches.
- Portland have been level at half-time in 5 of their last 10 matches.
- The last H2H was 1-1 at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Portland win is plausible given Richmond's second-half defensive struggles.
- Portland have won 2 of their last 5 away matches.
- Richmond have drawn at half-time in 4 of their last 10 matches.
- Portland's away record shows they often improve in the second half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Portland Hearts Of PineEstimated chance18%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, and the H2H history suggests goals are likely.
- Richmond's last 5 league matches have averaged 3.8 total goals.
- Portland's last 5 league matches have averaged 3.2 total goals.
- The most recent H2H produced 7 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both attacks have been finding the net regularly, and the defensive records of both teams are poor.
- Richmond have scored in 7 of their last 10 matches.
- Portland have scored in 9 of their last 10 matches.
- Both teams scored in the last H2H meeting.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Richmond's tendency to concede early and Portland's ability to score in the first half make a first-half goal likely.
- Richmond have conceded a first-half goal in 8 of their last 10 matches.
- Portland have scored a first-half goal in 6 of their last 10 matches.
- The last H2H had 2 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede late, and the H2H history shows a high-scoring second half.
- Richmond's last 5 matches have averaged 2.2 second-half goals.
- Portland's last 5 matches have averaged 1.8 second-half goals.
- The last H2H had 5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both teams likely to attack, corners could accumulate, but the lack of specific corner data makes this a low-confidence pick.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Both teams average around 4 corners per game based on league norms.
- The match is expected to be open with attacking intent.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The competitive stakes may lead to a physical match, but without card data this is speculative.
- Card data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Both teams are in a relegation battle, which often increases intensity.
- The last H2H had no card data recorded.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance45%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 65% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Richmond Kickers have been reliable when projected Over 2.5 goals

Richmond Kickers have fulfilled 6 of 8 Over 2.5 goals projections. Their average estimated probability was 58.1%, with an expected 4.7 fulfilled predictions, so they exceeded expectation. Notably, they have been stronger away from home, fulfilling 5 of 6 projections on the road compared to 1 of 2 at home.

Recent evidence for Richmond Kickers8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·USL League One