USL League OneFull time

Predictions graded

One Knoxville SC2AC Boise2

HT 2–1Sat 22 Aug 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–450%

Edges4–267%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 03:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Knoxville are favoured but overpriced at 1.40 (our model: 45% win probability).

The only clear value is the first-half draw at 4.50, with a 50% estimated probability versus 22% implied. Avoid all other markets due to heavy vig and mispriced probabilities.

Context

Knoxville drew 1-1 at home to Portland on August 19, scoring the equaliser in the 86th minute.
- Coach Ian Fuller publicly stated the team must be calmer in decisive moments after creating heavy pressure.
- Knoxville have drawn three of their last five matches, including two 1-1 home draws.
Knoxville entered the match fourth in USL League One; Boise were fifth.
- The top four finishers receive a home match in the first playoff round.
- The regular season ends October 24, so this August 22 fixture is part of an active seeding race.
Boise away record: 3W-2D-4L, with 13 goals scored and 17 conceded in 9 matches.
- Boise scored in 8 of 9 away matches and conceded in 8 of 9.
- Boise's last five away matches produced 3, 3, 1, 6, and 3 total goals.
Knoxville home record: 6W-2D-3L, with 17 goals scored and 12 conceded.
- Knoxville lost 2-3 at home to Alta on July 18 and 0-1 to San Antonio in a cup match on May 16.
- Knoxville have drawn their last two home league matches 1-1.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

One Knoxville SC

1.40fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 71%

0.0ppshort

The market heavily favours Knoxville, but our model sees only a 45% win probability, making the 1.40 odds poor value despite their home advantage.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

One Knoxville SC or Draw

1.10fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 91%

−19.0ppshort

Even with high confidence in Knoxville avoiding defeat, the 1.10 odds imply a 91% probability, far above our 72% estimate, leaving no value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.38fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Our model estimates only 55% for Over 2.5, but the odds of 1.38 imply 72.5%, so there is no value despite the predictor's medium confidence.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.40fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Our model estimates 58% for BTTS Yes, but the odds of 1.40 imply 71.4%, so there is no value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.05fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 95.2%

0.0ppshort

Our model estimates 60% for Over 0.5 first-half goals, but the odds of 1.05 imply 95.2%, so there is no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Knoxville's stronger home form and superior goal difference, combined with the only H2H win, support a home victory despite recent inconsistent form.
- One Knoxville home record: 6W-2D-3L, 17 goals for, 12 against in 11 matches
- AC Boise away record: 3W-2D-4L, 13 goals for, 17 against in 9 matches
- H2H: One Knoxville won the only prior meeting 2-1 away on July 2, 2026
- One Knoxville overall goal difference +12 vs AC Boise +2
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOne Knoxville SCEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Knoxville's solid home record and Boise's mediocre away form make the home side avoiding defeat highly likely.
- One Knoxville home unbeaten rate: 8/11 (73%)
- AC Boise away win rate: 33% (3/9)
- Knoxville have lost only 3 of 11 home matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonOne Knoxville SC or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently go into halftime level, making a first-half draw the most likely outcome.
- Knoxville half-time results: 20% leading, 20% trailing, 60% drawing
- Boise half-time results: 20% leading, 13% trailing, 67% drawing
- Both teams have high draw rates at halftime
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A halftime draw followed by a Knoxville win is plausible given their second-half strength, but the exact sequence is less certain.
- Knoxville have drawn at halftime in 60% of matches
- Knoxville win rate overall: 52%
- Boise lose rate away: 44%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / One Knoxville SCEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have trended toward higher scoring, especially Boise's away games, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- One Knoxville home matches average 2.64 total goals (29 goals in 11 games)
- AC Boise away matches average 3.33 total goals (30 goals in 9 games)
- Both teams scored in 6 of Knoxville's last 8 matches
- Boise's last 5 away matches: 3, 3, 1, 6, 3 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.
- One Knoxville scored in 10 of 11 home matches
- AC Boise scored in 8 of 9 away matches
- Both teams scored in 6 of Knoxville's last 8 overall
- Boise conceded in 8 of 9 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 0.5 first-half goals, suggesting a decent chance of at least one goal before halftime.
- One Knoxville first-half goals per match: 0.5, conceded 0.4
- AC Boise first-half goals per match: 0.5, conceded 0.3
- Combined first-half goal rate: 1.0 per match
- In last 5 matches, Knoxville had 3 first-half goals, Boise had 4
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to see more goals for both teams, but the probability is tempered by variance.
- Knoxville second-half goals per match: 1.2 (total 1.7 - 0.5 first half)
- Boise second-half goals per match: 0.9 (total 1.4 - 0.5 first half)
- Combined second-half goal rate: 2.1 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner stats, this is a low-confidence estimate based on league averages.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- USL League One average corners per match typically around 9-10
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the competitive stakes, a moderately high card count is possible, but data is lacking.
- Foul and card data unavailable for both teams
- USL League One average cards per match around 4
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance45%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 71% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

One Knoxville SC has matched Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 7 recent projections

One Knoxville SC has fulfilled 4 of 7 Over 2.5 goals predictions. The average estimated probability was 57.1%, with an expected 4 fulfilled predictions, so outcomes aligned with expectations. At home, 3 of 5 projections were fulfilled, while away only 1 of 2 matched.

Recent evidence for One Knoxville SC7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

19 Jul·USL League One

One Knoxville SC2-3

AV Alta FC

BetBugsOver 2.5 goals·60%→5 total goals

Matched

19 Jul 2026

USL League One

One Knoxville SC2-3

AV Alta FC

Over 2.5 goals

60%probability

5 total goals

Matched

16 Jul·USL League One

One Knoxville SC2-1

Fort Wayne FC

BetBugsOver 2.5 goals·55%→3 total goals

Matched

16 Jul 2026

USL League One

One Knoxville SC2-1

Fort Wayne FC

Over 2.5 goals

55%probability

3 total goals

Matched

12 Jul·USL Cup

Corpus Christi1-1

One Knoxville SC

BetBugsOver 2.5 goals·55%→2 total goals

Missed

12 Jul 2026

USL Cup

Corpus Christi1-1

One Knoxville SC

Over 2.5 goals

55%probability

2 total goals

Missed

3 Jul·USL League One

AC Boise1-2

One Knoxville SC

BetBugsOver 2.5 goals·60%→3 total goals

Matched

3 Jul 2026

USL League One

AC Boise1-2

One Knoxville SC

Over 2.5 goals

60%probability

3 total goals

Matched

14 Jun·USL League One

One Knoxville SC3-1

New York Cosmos

BetBugsOver 2.5 goals·60%→4 total goals

Matched

14 Jun 2026

USL League One

One Knoxville SC3-1

New York Cosmos

Over 2.5 goals

60%probability

4 total goals

Matched

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 0W

W1-2BoisevOne KnoxvilleJul 3, 2026USL

3 goals/game avg

League Table

USL League One 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	One Knoxville SC Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	21	11	5	5	35-23	38	DDWLL
5	AC Boise Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	21	10	4	7	31-29	34	WDLWW