Draw
Market 27.8% · BetBugs 32%
DC United have drawn 8 of 18 league matches this season and New England have drawn 2 of 7 away, with the last H2H at this venue ending 1-1.
Major League SoccerFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
The best value is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.50 (+15 point edge), driven by both teams' open second halves and DC United's poor home defense.
The draw at 3.60 also offers a small edge, but avoid short-priced favourites like DC United or Draw (1.30) and Over 0.5 first-half goals (1.25), which are significantly overpriced.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
Market 27.8% · BetBugs 32%
DC United have drawn 8 of 18 league matches this season and New England have drawn 2 of 7 away, with the last H2H at this venue ending 1-1.
Market 40% · BetBugs 55%
Second halves tend to be more open, with both teams showing higher scoring rates after the break, and the odds offer a clear edge.
Other edges · 5
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 62% · Market 76.9%
DC United are unbeaten in 5 of their last 6 home matches and New England have won only 1 of 7 away, but the market has already priced this heavily.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 77% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | DC UnitedPromotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals) | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 26-29 | 23 |
| 3 | New England RevolutionPromotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals) | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 28-23 | 30 |

