San Martin de Tucuman2Deportivo Madryn2

HT 1–0Sun 16 Aug 2026, 20:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–456%

Edges3–350%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 18:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Expect a tight, low-scoring match with a draw as the most likely outcome.

The only clear betting value is on the match winner draw at odds around 3.00; avoid the heavily juiced double chance, under 2.5, and BTTS No markets.

Context

San Martín home record: 4W 6D 2L, with 50% draws.
- They conceded only 0.67 goals per home game.
- Recent home matches include 0-0 vs Quilmes and 1-1 vs San Martin S.J.
Away record: 4W 5D 3L in 12 matches.
- They average 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded away.
- Recent away results include a 0-0 draw at Los Andes and a 1-0 win at CA Estudiantes.
H2H last 4: 2 draws, 1 home win, 1 away win.
- March 2026: Deportivo Madryn 1-1 San Martín.
- April 2025: San Martín 0-0 Deportivo Madryn.
Yllana left after a 0-0 draw with Quilmes.
- De Camilo took interim charge in June 2026.
- Since the change, San Martín have 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in 7 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

San Martin de Tucuman or Draw

1.17fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 85.5%

0.0ppshort

San Martin's strong home resilience and Madryn's solid away form both point to the home side avoiding defeat, supported by H2H balance.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high draw rates in their respective home/away splits and recent H2H is balanced, making a stalemate the most likely single outcome.
- San Martin de Tucuman home record: 4W 6D 2L in 12 home matches (50% draws)
- Deportivo Madryn away record: 4W 5D 3L in 12 away matches (42% draws)
- H2H last 4 meetings: 2 draws, 1 home win, 1 away win
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Martin's strong home resilience and Madryn's solid away form both point to the home side avoiding defeat, supported by H2H balance.
- San Martin home: 10 of 12 matches without defeat (83%)
- Deportivo Madryn away: 9 of 12 matches without defeat (75%)
- H2H: San Martin unbeaten in 2 of last 3 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSan Martin de Tucuman or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a strong tendency to be level at the break, and recent head-to-head matches support a drawn first half.
- San Martin half-time results: 13 leading, 27 trailing in 15 matches (most draws)
- Deportivo Madryn half-time results: 33 leading, 0 trailing in 15 matches (many draws)
- H2H: 3 of 4 meetings were level at halftime
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high draw rates in second halves, and the balanced nature of this matchup suggests a possible stalemate after the break.
- San Martin second half record: 4 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses at home
- Deportivo Madryn second half record: 4 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses away
- H2H: 2 of 4 meetings had a drawn second half
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both halftime and fulltime is a plausible outcome given the teams' tendencies to be level at the break and the overall draw propensity.
- San Martin home: 6 draws in 12 matches, many with level halftime scores
- Deportivo Madryn away: 5 draws in 12 matches
- H2H: 2 of 4 meetings ended in draws, including one 0-0
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance22%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and recent head-to-head meetings have been low-scoring, supporting a low total goals expectation.
- San Martin home: 14 goals for, 8 against in 12 matches (avg 1.83 total goals)
- Deportivo Madryn away: 14 goals for, 12 against in 12 matches (avg 2.17 total goals)
- H2H last 4: 3 of 4 matches had under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
San Martin's solid home defense and Madryn's moderate away scoring suggest at least one team may fail to score, aligning with historical H2H patterns.
- San Martin home: 8 goals conceded in 12 matches (0.67 per game)
- Deportivo Madryn away: 12 goals conceded in 12 matches (1.00 per game)
- H2H: 2 of last 4 meetings ended with at least one team failing to score
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages and a history of tight opening halves in direct matchups.
- San Martin first half goals: 0.4 per game overall, 0.4 conceded
- Deportivo Madryn first half goals: 0.6 per game overall, 0.2 conceded
- H2H: 3 of 4 meetings had 0 or 1 first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Teams tend to open up after halftime, and combined second-half scoring rates suggest a moderate chance of at least two goals in the second period.
- San Martin second half goals: 0.4 per game (0.8 total - 0.4 first half)
- Deportivo Madryn second half goals: 0.7 per game (1.3 total - 0.6 first half)
- H2H: 2 of 4 meetings had 2+ second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner stats, we rely on league averages, which suggest a moderate chance of exceeding 8.5 corners, but confidence is low due to missing data.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- League average corners per match typically around 9-10 in Primera Nacional
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
In the absence of specific discipline stats, we estimate a neutral probability based on typical league card counts, acknowledging the uncertainty.
- Card data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- Primera Nacional matches often feature multiple bookings
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 85% leaves no cushion vs our 68% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

San Martin de Tucuman has been moderately reliable when projected to Under 2.5 goals

San Martin de Tucuman has fulfilled 5 of 8 Under 2.5 goals predictions. The average estimated probability was 72.8%, with an expected 5.8 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment was slightly below expectation. The current prediction of 62% is below the historical range of 70-78%, indicating less confidence than in previous projections.

Recent evidence for San Martin de Tucuman8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Primera Nacional