Primera NacionalFull time

Predictions graded

Deportivo Madryn2CA San Miguel2

HT 1–0Sun 14 Jun 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–820%

Edges2–433%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Jun 2026, 09:41 · Europe/Bucharest

A playoff-relevant clash where Madryn's strong home form meets San Miguel's winless away record.

The best value is in the first half: back 'Under 0.5 First Half Goals' at 2.30 and 'First Half Result – Draw' at 2.00, both offering clear edges. Avoid the short-priced 'Draw No Bet – Madryn' at 1.29, as the high draw risk makes it poor value.

Context

San Miguel away record: 0W-5D-2L, with only 3 goals scored in 7 matches.
- They failed to score in 4 of those 7 away games.
- Madryn have lost only once at home this season (3W-3D-1L).
Madryn are 7th on 24 points, with places 2-8 entering the Torneo Reducido.
- San Miguel are 11th on 20 points, tied with 8th-placed Defensores de Belgrano.
- The top seven in each zone plus the best 8th reach the 2027 Copa Argentina.
H2H last 3: Madryn 1W-2D-0L.
- Madryn won 2-1 at home in March 2025.
- San Miguel have never beaten Madryn in these three meetings.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Madryn's strong home form and San Miguel's poor away record, combined with H2H edge, make a home win the most likely single outcome, though draws are common in this fixture.
- Madryn home record: 3W-3D-1L (9GF, 5GA) in 7 matches this season.
- San Miguel away record: 0W-5D-2L (3GF, 10GA) in 7 matches, winless on the road.
- Last 5 matches form: Madryn 2W-2D-1L (7GF, 4GA) vs San Miguel 1W-3D-1L (3GF, 6GA).
- H2H last 3 meetings: Madryn 1W-2D-0L, including a 2-1 home win in March 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDeportivo MadrynEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With San Miguel winless away and Madryn losing only once at home, the double chance heavily favors the home side avoiding defeat, supported by H2H and venue splits.
- Madryn home loss rate: only 1 loss in 7 home games (14%).
- San Miguel away win rate: 0 wins in 7 away games (0%).
- H2H: San Miguel has never won in 3 meetings (Madryn 1W, 2D).
- Madryn's home goal difference: +4; San Miguel's away goal difference: -7.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDeportivo Madryn or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
High draw rates at halftime for both teams, combined with H2H history, make a first-half draw the most probable outcome.
- Madryn home first half results: led at HT in 3 of 7 (43%), drew in 4 of 7 (57%).
- San Miguel away first half results: led in 1 of 7 (14%), drew in 4 of 7 (57%).
- Overall HT draw rate: Madryn 53%, San Miguel 53%.
- H2H: all 3 meetings were draws at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
If the match is level at halftime, Madryn's stronger second-half home record and San Miguel's away fragility suggest a home win is a plausible HT/FT double, though confidence is low due to small sample.
- Madryn home: drew at HT in 4 of 7, won FT in 3 of those 4 (75% conversion when drawing at HT at home).
- San Miguel away: drew at HT in 4 of 7, lost FT in 2 of those 4 (50% loss rate when drawing at HT away).
- H2H: one meeting was 0-0 at HT and ended 2-1 to Madryn.
- Madryn's second-half performance at home: +2 goal difference in second halves.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Deportivo MadrynEstimated chance22%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Madryn's superior second-half performance at home against San Miguel's poor away second halves suggests a home win in the second period, though the draw rate tempers confidence.
- Madryn home second-half record: won second half in 3 of 7 (43%), drew in 3, lost in 1.
- San Miguel away second-half record: won second half in 1 of 7 (14%), drew in 2, lost in 4 (57%).
- Madryn's second-half goal difference at home: +2.
- San Miguel's second-half goal difference away: -4.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableDeportivo MadrynEstimated chance40%

Goals1 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams trend toward low-scoring games, especially San Miguel on the road, and the H2H history supports a tight, under 2.5 goals contest.
- Madryn home matches: 4 of 7 had under 2.5 goals (57%).
- San Miguel away matches: 5 of 7 had under 2.5 goals (71%).
- Overall season: Madryn 56% under 2.5, San Miguel 69% under 2.5.
- H2H: 2 of 3 meetings had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
San Miguel's away scoring struggles and Madryn's decent home defense suggest at least one side will fail to score, consistent with H2H patterns.
- San Miguel away: scored in only 3 of 7 away games (43%), conceded in 5 of 7 (71%).
- Madryn home: kept clean sheets in 3 of 7 home games (43%).
- H2H: both teams scored in only 1 of 3 meetings.
- San Miguel's last 5 matches: scored 3 goals total, failing to score in 2.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Miguel's away attacking output is very low, giving Madryn a reasonable chance at a clean sheet, though Madryn's own defensive consistency is moderate.
- Madryn home clean sheets: 3 in 7 matches (43%).
- San Miguel away scoring: only 3 goals in 7 away games, blanked in 4 of 7 (57%).
- San Miguel's last 5 away matches: scored 1 goal total.
- Madryn's last 5 home matches: 2 clean sheets.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCA San Miguel not to scoreEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Madryn's home scoring is modest, and San Miguel's away defense occasionally limits opponents, making under 1.5 home goals a plausible outcome.
- Madryn home goals: 9 in 7 matches (1.29 per game), under 1.5 in 4 of 7 (57%).
- San Miguel away conceded: 10 in 7 (1.43 per game), but held under 1.5 in 4 of 7 (57%).
- Madryn's last 5 home matches: scored 1 or fewer in 3.
- H2H at Madryn: Madryn scored 2 and 0 in two home meetings.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostDeportivo Madryn under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
San Miguel's away scoring drought is severe, and Madryn's home defense is solid, making it likely the visitors fail to score.
- San Miguel away goals: 3 in 7 matches (0.43 per game), failed to score in 4 of 7 (57%).
- Madryn home conceded: 5 in 7 (0.71 per game), kept clean sheet in 3 of 7 (43%).
- San Miguel's last 5 away matches: scored 0 goals in 4.
- H2H: San Miguel scored 1 goal in 3 meetings, blanked twice.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostCA San Miguel under 0.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams start slowly, especially San Miguel away, and the H2H shows a pattern of goalless first halves, supporting under 0.5 first-half goals.
- Madryn first half goals at home: 0.7 per game average, but 3 of 7 home games had 0 first-half goals (43%).
- San Miguel first half goals away: 0.3 per game average, 5 of 7 away games had 0 first-half goals (71%).
- Overall first half: Madryn 0.7 GF, 0.3 GA; San Miguel 0.3 GF, 0.5 GA.
- H2H: 2 of 3 meetings were 0-0 at halftime.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see more action after the break, with high rates of second-half goals, making over 0.5 second-half goals a strong likelihood.
- Madryn home second half: 6 of 7 matches had at least 1 second-half goal (86%).
- San Miguel away second half: 5 of 7 matches had at least 1 second-half goal (71%).
- Overall second half: Madryn 73% over 0.5, San Miguel 67% over 0.5.
- H2H: all 3 meetings had second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Without specific card stats, we rely on league norms and the non-derby nature of the fixture to estimate a moderate card count, leaning under 3.5 due to lack of evidence for high aggression.
- Card data unavailable in recent matches for both teams.
- Primera Nacional average cards per game typically around 4-5, but no specific data here.
- No injury/suspension data suggests key aggressive players missing.
- Match context: high stakes but not a derby, reducing likelihood of excessive cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 0W

D1-1San MiguelvDeportivo MadrynJul 5, 2025PRI

W2-1Deportivo MadrynvSan MiguelMar 2, 2025PRI

D0-0Deportivo MadrynvSan MiguelNov 3, 2024PRI

Deportivo Madryn unbeaten in 3 meetings1.7 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera Nacional 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Deportivo Madryn Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)	16	6	6	4	20-15	24
11	CA San Miguel	16	4	8	4	12-17	20

4pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Deportivo Madryn

D0-0San TelmoJun 7PRI

D0-0AcassusoMay 31PRI

W2-1Chaco For EverMay 24PRI

L0-1Ferro Carril OesteMay 17PRI

W3-2Central NorteMay 10PRI

D2-2Racing CordobaMay 3PRI

W2-1Defensores De BelgranoApr 26PRI

L0-1Ciudad de BolívarApr 18PRI

W2-1Almirante BrownApr 12PRI

W3-1Atletico MitreApr 5PRI

D1-1San Martin TucumanMar 29PRI

W3-0CA EstudiantesMar 21PRI

L0-1All BoysMar 14PRI

D0-0Godoy CruzMar 1PRI

L0-2San Martin S.J.Feb 25COP

CA San Miguel

D0-0Defensores De BelgranoJun 6PRI

D1-1Ciudad de BolívarMay 31PRI

W1-0Almirante BrownMay 23PRI

L0-4Atletico MitreMay 17PRI

D1-1CA EstudiantesMay 9PRI

D1-1All BoysApr 30PRI

L0-2Los AndesApr 25PRI

D0-0Godoy CruzApr 18PRI

W2-1Deportivo MoronApr 11PRI

L0-3Colon Santa FeApr 4PRI

D0-0ColegialesMar 28PRI

L1-2Racing CordobaMar 21PRI

D1-1San TelmoMar 14PRI

W2-0Chaco For EverFeb 28PRI

D1-1Ferro Carril OesteFeb 21PRI

Squad & Injuries

Deportivo Madryn

28 available

Attackers13

Midfielders5

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

CA San Miguel

28 available

Attackers8

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 0.5

Under 0.5

Deportivo Madryn or Draw

Deportivo Madryn

No

Over 0.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 7 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Deportivo Madryn, draw no bet

No

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Deportivo Madryn

CA San Miguel

Squad & Injuries

Deportivo Madryn

CA San Miguel